Giniyatullin Bulat
This research paper reveals the likelihood of global warming on Earth.
Download:
Preview:
Topic: "The Probability of Global Warming"
Scientific adviser:Vasilova Milyausha Rifkatovna
2012
1.Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….2
2.Goals and objectives………………………………………………………………………3
3. Analysis of the climatic situation…………………………………………..…..4
4.Main aspects of global warming……………………….…...………6
4.1. Probability of influence of the political factor …………………………..…7
4.2. Likely to influence the military factor……………………………..…….10
4.3. Probability of the influence of the demographic factor……………………………………………………………………………………………..12
4.4. The probability of the influence of the technological factor………………………...15
5.Conclusion…………………………………………………………………......17
6. Appendix ……………………………………………………………………………………………………...........18
7. References………………………………………………………………21
Introduction:
In my work, I would like to consider, based on the practical possibilities of applying the theory of probability, a hot topic today - global warming.
A lot is being said and written about global warming. Almost every day new hypotheses appear, old ones are refuted. We are constantly being terrified of what the future holds for us. Many statements and articles contradict each other, misleading us. Global warming has already become a “global confusion” for many, and some have completely lost all interest in the problem of climate change. After all, if you look at the temperature of the past winter, then the theory of global warming is called into question.
At school, in mathematics lessons, we solved problems in probability theory, in which we found the probability of occurrence of events. I was very interested in this topic. And I decided to figure out what is the likelihood of global warming in the near future, applying the knowledge I received. Maybe thisnatural natural process, which does not harm the planet, or is it a process of constant increase in temperature caused by human activity. From numerous sources, I chose the information I was interested in, and based on it I made tasks, in the course of solving which I found out the probability of occurrence of events.
Relevance of this study is determined by the importance for everything
The population of the planet of the impending problem and the choice of its solution
Object of studyis the process of compiling and solving problems to calculate the probability of occurrence of events of interest to us.
Subject of studyis to study the practical possibilities of applying the theory of probability on the topic "Probability of global warming"
Purpose of the study:through the systematization of knowledge on the theory of probability, make up tasks and, through their solution, figure out what is the probability of global warming in the near future.
To achieve this goal, the following tasks:
- analyze the pattern of changes in air temperature since the last century over decades
- to consider four significant, in my opinion, aspects of global warming
- based on the knowledge obtained from information sources, create tasks for finding the probability of a constant increase in temperature
- demonstrate the compiled probabilistic tasks, showing the possibility of applying mathematical knowledge in various fields of human activity.
Research methods:
Analysis of the content of thematic literature, compilation and solution of probabilistic problems from various areas professional activity.
Analysis of the climate situation
Global warming is a slow and gradual increase in the average temperature on our planet. .
According to scientific data, global warming can be caused by many factors:
Based on the data I received from the official website of Roshydromet , I decided to make a table where you can see the change in temperature over decades:
You can also make a more detailed table for clarity:
Climate 1979 - 1988 | |||||||||||||
Indicator | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | sen | Oct | But I | Dec | Year |
Average temperature, °C | −8,7 | −8,7 | −2,4 | 13,6 | 17,0 | 17,9 | 16,4 | 10,9 | −1,8 | −5,5 |
Climate 1989 - 1998 | |||||||||||||
Indicator | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | sen | Oct | But I | Dec | Year |
Average temperature, °C | −5,5 | −5 | −0,5 | 12,9 | 17,3 | 18,5 | 16,4 | 10,8 | −2,2 | −5,9 |
Climate 1999 – 2008 | |||||||||||||
Indicator | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | sen | Oct | But I | Dec | Year |
Average temperature, °C | −5,5 | −6,7 | −0,6 | 12,5 | 16,7 | 20,2 | 17,5 | 11,9 | −0,5 | −3,9 |
For comparison, this was the climate of Moscow 100 years ago (For example, then March was colder than average January at the beginning of the 21st century):
Climate 1879 - 1908 | |||||||||||||
Indicator | Jan. | Feb. | Mar | Apr. | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | sen | Oct | But I | Dec | Year |
Average temperature, °C | −11,1 | −9,1 | −5,6 | 11,8 | 15,3 | 17,9 | 15,6 | 10,0 | −3 | −8,6 |
Based on these data, we will make an arithmetic progression with the average annual temperature over decades. First, let's find the average d.
d 1 \u003d 5.0-4.8 \u003d 0.2; d 2 \u003d 5.7-5.0 \u003d 0.7 and d 3 =6.3-5.7=0.6 d=(0.7+0.6+0.2):3=0.5. Now we can assume that at an average annual temperature of 30°C life on earth will disappear, so if we plug all our data into the formula: a n = a 1 +(n-1)*d, then we will find out the approximate year of the disaster:
d=0.5; a 1 \u003d 4.8; a n =30
30=4.8+(n-1) ● 0.5
25.2=0.5n - 0.5
25.7=0.5n
n=51.4 (approximately 51 members)
By counting, we find out that the catastrophe will happen in the period from 2480 to 2490. I was also interested in how likely this outcome is.
I believe that if conditions do not change, the probability that the increase in temperature will continue is 90%, and if they change, then 30%. But it seems to me that the probability that conditions will change is 10%, because from the table we see that over the past 100 years the temperature has increased rapidly, no matter what measures are taken.
Solution:
H - will not change (hypothesis)
H1 - will change (hypothesis)
A - increase in temperature constantly
A/H; A/H 1 – warming will be constant if the corresponding hypothesis is fulfilled
P(A)=P(H) P(A/H)+P(H 1 ) P(A/H 1 )=0.9 0.9+0.3 0.1=0.84=84%
From this we see that the probability of continued warming is quite high. But in order to better understand the reasons for such rapid natural changes, I decided to consider 4 main, in my opinion, aspects:
Aspects of global warming
Political factor:
Russia, Canada, the northern regions of the United States and Europe would rather benefit from global warming than suffer losses. This opinion was expressed by American scientists who studied the impact of global warming in the northern countries.
The Russian government is one of many that sees global warming as beneficial, albeit at minimal cost, and hopes to even benefit from climate change in the short term.
Scientists in our country are concerned about such a rapid increase in temperature. The work “The World around Russia. Contours of the near future» . The work contains an alarming warning about "climatic migrations".
But the government of our country sees many advantages:
First, an increase in the area of forests.
Secondly, the receipt of benefits in the field of tourism. According to researchers, the number of people wishing to visit Russia will increase by more than 170%, which now scares off heat-loving foreigners.
Thirdly, the prospects for the rapid development of agriculture in those areas that are now unsuitable for human activity.
Fourth, it will become easier and much cheaper for gas and oil companies to develop fields beyond the Arctic Circle. But it is precisely there, according to forecasts, that 25% of the world's hydrocarbon reserves that have not been discovered so far are located.
Based on this information, I made a task:
Of the 10 countries, among which 4 countries are pursuing selfish goals in global warming, 5 are united to solve the problem. What is the probability that among the united countries there will be 2 that are interested in warming?
Solution:
First of all, it is worth noting that the choice of any five countries has the same probability. In total, there are C 5 10 ways to make such a five, that is, a random experiment in this case has C 5 10 equally likely outcomes. How many of these outcomes satisfy the condition "there are two selfish countries in the top five", that is, how many outcomes belong to the event of interest to us? Each five we are interested in can be composed as follows: choose two defective lamps, which can be done in a number of ways equal to C 2 4 . Each pair of selfish countries can meet as many times as there are ways to complement it with three honest countries, that is, C 3 6 once. It turns out that the number of fives containing two dishonest countries is equal to C 2 4 C 3 6 . Hence, denoting the desired probability by P, we obtain:
P \u003d 0.48 \u003d 48%
From here we see that the percentage of countries that are interested in global warming is approaching 50%, and this despite the fact that in the condition we took the smallest possible number of selfish countries.
military factor
The danger of the military-industrial complex to the environment is actively discussed in Lately. The intensive activity of the military-industrial complex has caused great and properly unestimated damage to the health of the population and the natural environment, significant territories have been turned into a zone of ecological trouble. Particularly severe environmental consequences are associated with the production, testing, and destruction of nuclear weapons, with the disposal of nuclear submarines, with the production, storage and destruction of chemical weapons, with rocket and space activities, and with the contamination of vast areas of the country with components of toxic rocket fuels.
It seems to me that the large-scale use of military weapons causes severe pollution of the atmosphere. It is known that during ground explosions, the total release of harmful substances from the explosion funnel is approximately 5000 tons. As a result of explosions and fires, great amount poisonous gases and dust. Large-scale fires, pollution of the atmosphere with soil, soot gradually lead to the fact that the atmosphere becomes impervious to solar radiation, the atmospheric circulation is restructured, and the Earth is covered with a solid black veil. There will come a "hot nuclear night" - as scientists call it, and the earth will undergo global warming.
During the Vietnam War, more than 40% of the cultivated area was affected. The war led to the complete destruction of some species of plants and animals, useful soil microorganisms. Of the 150 species of birds, 18 survived, amphibians, insects, and many species of river fish were almost completely destroyed.
As the experience of Chernobyl showed, harmful substances are well retained in water, in forest litter, in humus and in some organisms (for example, in mushrooms). So, in connection with the hostilities in Chechnya, oil refineries and chemical plants were destroyed, as a result of which, in the delta of the river. Terek oil content exceeded 5 times .
But not only the nature around us suffers, but also the people themselves.
Let's see how it affects human health. After all, if 20% of military enterprises are located outside the city, then we check what is the probability that out of 20 bases exactly 5 are located outside the city.
Solution:
According to the Bernoulli scheme, we see that:
p is the probability that military enterprises are located outside the city
q=1-p is the probability that such enterprises in cities
Р=С n to ● p to ● q p-to =C 5 20 ● 0.2 5 ● 0.8 15 =15504 ● 0.035 ● 0.00032=0.17=17%
Answer: P=17%.
We received only 17%, thus, we can conclude that 83% of military enterprises are located within the city, from here we can imagine what harm they cause to health, not to mention that they pollute the atmosphere of these cities.
Demographic factor:
Population growth in the current state of production and the level of environmental consciousness significantly affects the growth of environmental pollution and the depletion of natural resources. 20th century is experiencing a kind of demographic revolution, when, thanks to the achievements of medical science, the growth of general well-being, population growth has sharply increased as a result of a decrease in mortality and an increase in the birth rate. Let's take the following examples: if in the last century the population increased by 1 billion in 100 years, then at the beginning of the 20th century. this billion was already achieved in 30 years, and in the second half of the 20th century. The population has increased by a billion in 15 years. Currently, the population growth rate is 150 people per minute.
Moreover, 56% of the population will be in Asia, 25% in Africa, 11% in Latin America, 8% in Europe and 3% in North America. Thus, the traditionally developed countries of Europe and North America are gradually giving way in terms of population to the developing countries of Asia, Africa and South America.
Such a redistribution of the population may increase ecological contradictions. These countries will experience great difficulty in providing environmental safety in terms of spending money on the introduction of non-waste technologies and the creation of a system of treatment facilities.
The environmental problems of cities, mainly the largest of them, are associated with an excessive concentration of population, transport and industrial enterprises in relatively small areas, with the formation of anthropogenic landscapes that are very far from the state of ecological balance.
The growth rate of the world's population is 1.5-2.0 times lower than the growth of the urban population, which today includes 40% of the world's people. For the period 1949 - 1989. population major cities increased by 4, in medium - by 3 and small - by 2 times.
The percentage of the urban population in individual countries is: Argentina - 83, Uruguay - 82, Australia - 75, USA - 80, Japan - 76, Germany - 90, Sweden - 83.
Cities consume 10 or more times more water per person than rural areas, and water pollution reaches catastrophic proportions. Wastewater volumes reach 1m 2 per day per person. Therefore, almost all big cities are water scarce and many of them receive water from remote sources.
The generalized data testify to the complex ecological state of Moscow. The city is growing rapidly, moving beyond the ring road, merges with satellite cities. The average population density is 8.9 thousand people. per 1 sq. km. In general, 1 Muscovite accounts for 46 kg of harmful substances per year.
Thermal impact increases the temperature in the city by 3-5°C.
Water consumption in Moscow per 1 inhabitant is about 700 l/day. Despite the huge costs of purification, even tap water contains some harmful compounds, mainly fertilizers and pesticides. Water resources are used irrationally - more than 20% of water goes unused. For example, a Muscovite uses up to 100 liters at a time just for shaving.
Soils within the city are significantly different from their counterparts in the regions. Soils are enriched with organic matter, mainly soot - up to 5% instead of 2-3%. Content heavy metals 4-6 times higher than due.
Large cities affect the surrounding area: atmospheric pollution spreads to the east for 70-100 km, thermal pollution and disturbance of the precipitation regime is observed at a distance of 90-100 km, and oppression of forests - for 30-40 km.
Over large cities, the atmosphere contains 10 times more aerosols and 25 times more gases. At the same time, 60-70% of gas pollution comes from road transport. On average, the number of cars in Russia is increasing by 10% per year, but one family already has more than two cars. We see such a rapid growth of motor transport associated with an increase in population. In my opinion, if conditions do not change, the probability that pollution will remain the same is 70%, and if they change, then 25%. I also decided that there was a 20% chance that conditions would change within a year. And I wondered what is the probability that pollution will continue forever?
Solution:
H - will not change (hypothesis)
H1 - will change (hypothesis)
A - pollution is constant
A/H; A/H 1 – pollution will be constant when the corresponding hypothesis is fulfilled
P (A) \u003d ∑P (H) P (A / H) - total probability formula
P(A)=P(H) P(A/H)+P(H 1 ) P(A/H 1 )=0.7 0.8+0.25 0.2=0.61, then we found out that 61% of that pollution will continue. But at the same time, we took the minimum, in my opinion, probability of constancy of pollution and still got a percentage of pollution more than 50%.
Technological factor:
As industrial production grows, the pollution of the Earth's atmosphere increases. Currently, in industrialized countries, more than 2.25 kg/person of various pollutants are emitted into the atmosphere annually, including 1.5 kg/person of gaseous and 0.75 kg/person of solid substances.More than 87% of the region's population lives in areas of severe air pollution from industrial emissions.
The main environmental problems of the industry are:
- excessive concentration of industrial enterprises in a small area
- of the total volume of wastewater, 84% are discharged into water bodies insufficiently treated and 3.2% without treatment at all
- industrial emissions degrade groundwater quality
- for industry in the development of solid minerals formed more than 300 quarries;
- solid emissions form landfills, only in the Moscow region there are currently 210 landfills and landfills, with a total area of 678 hectares, more than 80% of which are located without regard to environmental requirements.
The rise in industrial production has increased the volume of emissions of harmful substances over the past decade by 1.7 times.
If in 1998 the average indicator of exceeding the maximum permissible concentrations of harmful substances in the atmospheric air was 13.7%, now their excess is 20.9%. The highest level of pollution in residential areas located in industrial centers ranges from 33 to 69%.
Wastewater in the Moscow region is discharged into various water bodies from enterprises in the amount of 4083 thousand cubic meters. m/day
In total, 60% of enterprises are potential polluters that do not comply with environmental regulations. In this regard, of all wastewater requiring treatment, 89% is discharged insufficiently treated and 2.4% contaminated without treatment. A selective analysis on the territory of the Moscow region showed that 90% of enterprises are violators. I decided to find out what is the % of possible enterprises that do not comply with due standards.
Solution:
P (AB) - the probability of possible violators
A-possible (independent events)
B-violators (independent events)
P(AB)=P(A) ● P(B)=0.6 ● 0.9=0.54=54%
Answer: P (AB) \u003d 54%
We have calculated that there is a 54% chance that enterprises do not comply with due standards. It follows that more than half of all enterprises do not exactly protect the environment.
Output:
It seems to people that they live on a huge planet that will withstand their any careless attitude. Although if you look closely, you can see that our planet is a small and fragile creature in the Universe . I believe that in my work I was able to simultaneously answer the questions that interest me through consideration of the practical possibilities of applying the theory of probability. Thus, I saw that human activities in the political, military, demographic and technological aspects have caused great and properly invaluable damage to the natural environment and human health, and the probability of continued harm is approaching 56%! Thus, it can be confirmed with full probability that our planet is defenseless in relation to human activity and the probability of an ecological crisis, according to my calculations, is very high and amounts to 84%. All my probabilistic problems are based on the information available to me, and the probability of an unfavorable outcome, as we see, is quite high. And what is the probability of scientific point vision based on reliable information?
Appendix
Rice. one . Percentage of warming in different countries
Rice. 3 Impact on public health by temperature changes
Rice. 4. Table of consequences of the war
Rice. five. Population increase
Bibliography
V. S. Lyutikas “Schoolchild about the theory of probability”, Moscow, Education, 1986
L.E. Meistrof, Probability Theory. Historical essays", Moscow, Science 1967.
L.Ya. Savelyev "Combinatorics and Probability", Moscow, Nauka 1975
Introduction
As a result of studying the materials of meteorological observations carried out in all regions of the globe, it has been established that the climate is not constant, but is subject to certain changes. Started at the end of the 19th century. warming especially intensified in the 1920s and 30s, but then a slow cooling began, which stopped in the 1960s.
Studies by geologists of sedimentary deposits of the earth's crust have shown that great climate changes have occurred in past epochs. Since these changes were due to natural processes, they are called natural.
Along with natural factors, global climate conditions are increasingly influenced by human economic activity .
The purpose of this work is to study climate change on planet Earth.
To achieve this goal, several tasks are required:
)To study the factors influencing climate change.
)Study the effects of climate change.
)Study climate change in the territory Russian Federation.
)Consider how climate change can affect humans.
1. Climate and factors influencing climate change
Climate change - long-term (over 10 years) directional or rhythmic changes climatic conditions on the Earth as a whole or in its large regions. Climate change is directly or indirectly caused by human activities that cause changes in the composition of the global atmosphere.
Climatic changes can be divided with a certain degree of conditionality into long-term, short-term and fast, occurring in a very short period compared to the characteristic time of changes in the socio-economic sphere. Each of them has its own reasons, regarding which there are a number of hypotheses.
Some of the existing hypotheses are based on the possible influence of extraterrestrial factors on the climate system: changes in the activity of the Sun, features of the Earth's orbital motion, meteorite impacts, changes in position magnetic poles Earth. Others try to explain the instability of the climate system by the action of internal causes, such as: an increase in volcanic activity, a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, shifts in the system of ocean currents, natural oscillations of the atmospheric circulation.
The sun is the main force that controls the climate system and even the smallest changes in the amount of solar energy can have serious consequences for the earth's climate. For many years, scientists believed that solar activity remained constant. However, satellite observations cast doubt on the validity of this hypothesis.
Solar activity waxes and wanes every eleven years (or twenty-two years, according to some experts) of the solar cycle. There may be other important solar cycles. In order to assess their influence, it is necessary to conduct continuous measurements of solar activity and study traces of the interaction between solar activity and climate over the past centuries and millennia.
Astronomical factors: In the middle of the 20th century, scientists found that over millions of years, the most powerful influence on the Earth's climate was exerted by periodic changes in its orbit. Over the past 3 million years, regular fluctuations in the amount of sunlight hitting the planet's surface have triggered a series of ice ages punctuated by short, warm interglacial intervals.
One of the most famous and generally accepted theories of periodic icing of the Earth is an astronomical model proposed in 1920 by the Serbian geophysicist Milutin Milanković. According to the Milankovitch hypothesis, the hemispheres of the Earth, as a result of changes in its movement, can receive less or more solar radiation, which is reflected in global temperature.
Over millions of years, many climatic cycles have changed. At the end of the last ice age, the ice cover that had fettered the north of Europe and North America for 100 thousand years began to decrease and disappeared 6 thousand years ago. Many scientists believe that the development of civilization falls mainly on the warm interval between the ice ages.
The atmosphere heats up as it absorbs solar radiation, and the self-radiation of the earth's surface. The heated atmosphere radiates by itself. Just like the earth's surface, it emits infrared radiation in the range of long waves invisible to the eye. A significant part (about 70%) of atmospheric radiation comes to the earth's surface, which almost completely absorbs it (95-99%). This radiation is called "counter radiation", since it is directed towards the own radiation of the earth's surface. The main substance in the atmosphere that absorbs terrestrial radiation and sends out counter radiation is water vapor.
In addition to water vapor, the atmosphere includes carbon dioxide (CO2) and other gases that absorb energy in the 7-15 µm wavelength range, i.e. where the energy of terrestrial radiation is close to maximum. Relatively small changes in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere can affect the temperature of the earth's surface. By analogy with the processes occurring in greenhouses, when radiation penetrating through the protective film heats the earth, the radiation of which is delayed by the film, providing additional heating, this process of interaction of the earth's surface with the atmosphere is called the "greenhouse effect".
The phenomenon of the greenhouse effect makes it possible to maintain a temperature on the Earth's surface at which the emergence and development of life is possible. If the greenhouse effect were absent, the average surface temperature of the globe would be much lower than it is now.
The influence of external factors on global air temperature is studied on the basis of modeling. Most of the work in this direction indicates that over the past 50 years, the estimated rate and extent of warming due to increased emissions greenhouse gases, are quite comparable with the rates and scales of the observed warming or exceed them.
Changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere, changes in solar radiation and the properties of the earth's surface change the energy balance of the climate system. These changes are expressed by the term "radiative forcing", which is used to compare the way in which a number of human and natural factors have a warming or cooling effect on the global climate.
Another obvious reason for climate change, is the eruption of volcanoes. This possibility was discussed as early as the 17th century by Benjamin Franklin. The idea was that clouds of small particles (aerosols) formed during a volcanic eruption can noticeably weaken the flow of short-wave radiation coming to the earth's surface, almost without changing the long-wave radiation going into the world space. Further studies showed that the main influence on the radiation and thermal regime of the Earth is exerted by a layer of sulfuric acid aerosol, which is formed in the stratosphere from sulfur-containing gases ejected by the volcano. Of greatest interest is the effect of volcanic eruptions on air temperature. For general reasons, experts expect temperatures to drop for some time.
The oceans also play an important role in the global climate system. The atmosphere shares a common boundary with the ocean for more than 72% of the Earth's surface and responds to all changes that occur in the ocean. It should also be taken into account that at any moment of time the amount of heat stored in a vertical column of the atmosphere with a height from the Earth's surface to the boundaries of outer space is approximately the same as that contained in a column of ocean water 3 m high, counting from the surface. Therefore, it is the ocean that is the main accumulator and custodian of the energy of solar radiation coming to Earth, which is subsequently released into the atmosphere.
With a huge heat capacity, the oceans have a stabilizing effect on the atmosphere, making it more stable. At the same time, the main parameters of the oceans experience long-term and short-term changes, and some of them are comparable in their time characteristics to changes occurring in the atmosphere.
The current climatic conditions are largely due to the influence of the ocean. The heat reserve in the ocean is distributed unevenly and is constantly moved by ocean currents.
In addition to the constant transport of heat by surface currents, the ocean undergoes regular mixing of waters in depth, known as "thermohaline circulation", depending on both the temperature of the water and its salt content, or salinity, salt water freezes at a lower temperature.
According to a study by Danish scientists, the Earth's magnetic field also significantly affects the climate, and this may lead to a revision of the established view that greenhouse gases are mainly responsible for global warming.
According to the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report, there is a 90% chance that observed climate change is due to human activities. A similar hypothesis was put forward back in 1992 at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
The anthropogenic origin of modern climate changes, in particular, is confirmed by paleoclimatic studies based on the analysis of the content of greenhouse gases in air bubbles frozen into ice. They show that there has not been such a concentration of CO2 as it is now in the last 650 thousand years. Moreover, compared with the pre-industrial era (1750), the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increased by a third. Modern global concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide have also significantly exceeded pre-industrial values.
The increase in the concentration of these three major greenhouse gases since the mid-18th century, according to scientists, has been very a high degree probability is associated with human economic activity, primarily the combustion of carbon fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal, etc.), industrial processes, as well as the deforestation - natural absorbers of CO2 from the atmosphere.
Global climate change involves the restructuring of all geosystems. Observational data indicate a rise in the level of the World Ocean, the melting of glaciers and permafrost, increased unevenness of precipitation, changes in the flow of rivers and other global changes associated with climate instability.
The consequences of climate change are already manifesting themselves, including in the form of an increase in the frequency and intensity of dangerous weather events, the spread of infectious diseases. They cause significant economic damage, threaten the stable existence of ecosystems, as well as the health and life of people. Scientists' conclusions suggest that ongoing climate change may lead to even more dangerous consequences in the future if humanity does not take appropriate preventive measures.
2. Impacts of climate change
climate precipitation ecosystem glacier
In the second half of the XX century. in connection with rapid development industry and the growth of energy availability, there are threats of climate change throughout the planet. Modern scientific research has established that the impact of anthropogenic activity on the global climate is associated with the action of several factors, of which the most important are:
· an increase in the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide, as well as some other gases entering the atmosphere in the course of economic activity, which enhances the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere;
· increase in the mass of atmospheric aerosols;
· an increase in the amount of thermal energy generated in the process of economic activity entering the atmosphere.
The first of these causes of anthropogenic climate change is of the greatest importance. « greenhouse effect<#"201" src="doc_zip1.jpg" />
Figure 2.1 Change in the average annual air temperature in the surface layer of the Earth (1860-2000)
The following effects of global warming are predicted:
· rise in the level of the world ocean due to the melting of glaciers and polar ice (over the past 100 years by 10-25 cm), which, in turn, results in flooding of territories, displacement of the boundaries of marshes and lowland areas, an increase in salinity of water in the mouths of rivers, as well as potential loss of a person's place of residence;
· change in precipitation (precipitation increases in northern Europe and decreases in southern Europe);
· change in the hydrological regime, quantity and quality of water resources;
· impact on ecological systems, agriculture (mixing of climatic zones in a northerly direction and migration of wild fauna species, changes in the seasonality of growth and productivity of land in agriculture and forestry).
All of the above factors can have a catastrophic impact on human health, the economy and society as a whole. The increasing frequency of droughts and the subsequent crisis in agriculture increase the threat of hunger and social stability in some regions of the world. Difficulties with water supply in countries with a warm climate stimulate the spread of tropical and subtropical diseases. As warming trends intensify, weather patterns become more volatile and climate-related natural disasters become more destructive. The damage caused by natural disasters to the world economy is increasing (Fig. 2.2). In 1998 alone, it exceeded the damage caused by natural disasters in the entire 1980s, tens of thousands of people died and about 25 million "environmental refugees" were forced to leave their homes.
Figure 2.2 Economic damage to the world economy, 1960-2000 (billion US dollars, annually)
At the end of the XX century. humanity came to understand the need to solve one of the most complex and extremely dangerous environmental problems associated with climate change, and in the mid-1970s. began active work in this direction. At the World Climate Conference in Geneva (1979), the foundations of the World Climate Program were laid. In accordance with the resolution of the UN General Assembly on the protection of the global climate for the benefit of present and future generations, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) was adopted. The purpose of the convention is to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that will not have a dangerous impact on the global climate system. Moreover, the solution of this problem is supposed to be carried out within a period sufficient for the natural adaptation of ecosystems to climate change and avoiding the threat to food production, as well as ensuring further economic development on a sustainable basis.
To reduce the threat of global warming, it is necessary first of all to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Most of these emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels, which still provide more than 75% of the world's energy. The rapidly increasing number of cars on the planet increases the risk of further emissions. Stabilization of CO in the atmosphere at a safe level is possible with an overall reduction (by about 60%) of greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming. Further development of energy-saving technologies and wider use of renewable energy sources can help in this.
2.1 Changes in frequency and amount of precipitation
In general, the climate on the planet will become more humid. But the amount of precipitation will not spread evenly across the Earth. In regions that already receive enough rainfall today, their fallout will become more intense. And in regions with insufficient moisture, dry periods will become more frequent. Figure 2.1.1 shows how the amount of precipitation will change.
Figure 2.1.1 Map of the distribution of precipitation around the globe.
2.2 Sea level rise
During the 20th century, the mean sea level rose by 0.1-0.2m. According to scientists, in the 21st century sea level rise will be up to 1 m. In this case, coastal areas and small islands will be the most vulnerable. States such as the Netherlands, Great Britain, as well as the small island states of Oceania and the Caribbean will be the first to fall under the risk of flooding. In addition, high tides will become more frequent, and coastal erosion will increase. Figure 2.2.1 shows that the water level is constantly rising.
Figure 2.2.1 Graph of the increase in the level of water on the ground.
2.3 Threats to ecosystems and biodiversity
Species and ecosystems have already begun to respond to climate change. Migratory bird species began to arrive earlier in spring and depart later in autumn.
There are predictions of extinction of up to 30-40% of plant and animal species, as their habitat will change faster than they can adapt to these changes.
With an increase in temperature by 1 °C, a change in the species composition of the forest is predicted. Forests are a natural carbon store (80% of all carbon in terrestrial vegetation and about 40% of carbon in soil). The transition from one type of forest to another will be accompanied by the release of a large amount of carbon.
2.4 Melting glaciers
The current glaciation of the Earth can be considered one of the most sensitive indicators of ongoing global changes. Satellite data show that since the 1960s, there has been a decrease in the area of snow cover by about 10%. Since the 1950s in the northern hemisphere area sea ice decreased by almost 10-15%, and the thickness decreased by 40%. According to the forecasts of experts from the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (St. Petersburg), in 30 years the Arctic Ocean will completely open from under the ice during the warm period of the year.
The thickness of the Himalayan ice is melting at a rate of 10-15 m per year. At the current rate of these processes, two-thirds of China's glaciers will disappear by 2060, and by 2100 all glaciers will have completely melted.
The accelerated melting of glaciers poses a number of immediate threats to human development. For densely populated mountainous and foothill areas, avalanches, flooding or, conversely, a decrease in the full flow of rivers, and as a result, a reduction in reserves, are of particular danger. fresh water. A clear example of the melting of glaciers can be seen in the Himalayas (Fig. 2.2.4).
Figure 2.2.4 Melting Himalayas
2.5 Agriculture
The impact of warming on agricultural productivity is ambiguous. In some temperate areas, yields may increase with a small increase in temperature, but decrease with large changes in temperature. In tropical and subtropical regions, overall yields are projected to decline.
The worst hit could be inflicted on the poorest countries least prepared to adapt to climate change. According to the IPCC, by 2080 the number of people facing the threat of hunger could increase by 600 million, twice the number of people living in poverty today in sub-Saharan Africa.
2.6 Water consumption and water supply
One of the consequences of climate change may be the lack of drinking water. In regions with arid climates (Central Asia, the Mediterranean, South Africa, Australia, etc.), the situation will be further aggravated due to a decrease in precipitation.
Due to the melting of glaciers, the flow of the largest waterways in Asia - the Brahmaputra, the Ganges, the Yellow River, the Indus, the Mekong, Salween and the Yangtze - will significantly decrease. The lack of fresh water will affect not only human health and agricultural development, but will also increase the risk of political divisions and conflicts over access to water resources.
3. Global climate change in Russia
It is generally accepted in Russian society that since Russia is a cold country, global warming will only benefit it. Estimated benefits are usually expected in agriculture and in reduced heating costs for residential and industrial buildings during the cold season. However, due to the length of the country's territory and the diversity of its natural and climatic features, the consequences of climate change manifest themselves differently in different regions of Russia and can have both positive and negative consequences. negative character.
Indeed, according to the estimates of Roshydromet, which are given in the "Strategic forecast of climate change in the Russian Federation for the period up to 2010-2015. and their impact on the sectors of the Russian economy"<#"232" src="doc_zip6.jpg" />.
Figure 3.1 Total number dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena in Russia, 1991-2006
It should be added to the above that global warming threatens to create or already creates such additional socio-economic threats as ground subsidence due to permafrost melting (such changes can be dangerous for buildings, engineering and transport structures); increased load on underwater pipelines and the likelihood of their accidental damage and rupture, as well as obstacles to navigation due to increased channel processes on rivers; expansion of the range of infectious diseases (for example, encephalitis, malaria) and others.
In Russia and Alaska, the processes of global warming are going twice as fast as in the rest of the world. About this, according to ITAR-TASS<#"justify">4. Impact of climate change on human health
A warming climate may bring some local benefits: in some areas, the fertile period is lengthening, food production is increasing. However, at the same time, other areas are subject to drought, the desert is encroaching on the once fertile land, which leads to famine, discontent of the population and the redistribution of resources. By 2090, climate change could lead to more drought-affected areas, doubling the number of extreme droughts and sixfold their average duration, experts predict.
In a global sense, climate change affects things that are necessary for health: fresh air, safe drinking water, food products in sufficient numbers and reliable shelter.
4.1 Extreme heat
Extremely high temperatures that have recently become more frequent in Moscow are also consequences of global warming. During the hot period last summer, when the capital was also covered in smog from peat fires, deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases increased, especially among the elderly. In hot and calm weather, pollutant levels rise in the air, which exacerbates cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Air pollution in cities causes about 1.2 million deaths each year. Also, during the heat, the concentration of plant pollen and other allergens increases, which worsens the health of people with allergies, especially asthma. That is why it is desirable to spend summer outside the metropolis.
4.2 Natural disasters
Since the 1960s, the number of reported weather-related disasters has tripled.
Disasters associated with the sea (tsunamis, hurricanes, floods) lead to especially devastating consequences, and more than half of the world's population lives within 60 km from the sea.
The frequency and intensification of disasters leads to a decrease in fresh water supplies suitable for drinking. During any natural disaster, sanitation deteriorates, increasing the risk of diarrheal disease, which kills 2.2 million people every year. Floods contaminate fresh water supplies, increase the risk of water-borne diseases, and provide breeding grounds for disease-carrying insects such as mosquitoes. And this is not counting the direct impact on life and health: drowning, injuries, destruction of houses.
Until now, about a billion people suffer from hunger in the world, and 3.5 million die every year. The looming drought is likely to reduce staple food production in many of the poorest regions - up to 50% by 2020 in some African countries. This will further increase the prevalence of malnutrition.
4.3 Infections
Diseases transmitted through water and with the help of insects are especially dependent on climatic conditions. As a result of warming, deaths from intestinal infections, malaria and dengue fever will become more frequent - these diseases are extremely sensitive to climate.
Global warming is causing transmission seasons for vector-borne (vector-borne) diseases to be longer and their geographic areas to expand. Simply put, tropical diseases can appear in areas where they have never been recorded. For example, according to WHO, dengue fever, which is spread by the Aedes mosquito, could currently infect 2.5 billion people, and by 2080, 4.5 billion people will be at risk due to climate change.
4.4 Health effects
Assessing the specific damage to health that global warming has already caused is very problematic. However, according to indirect data, WHO experts were able to do this, and they estimate the contribution of warming to the mortality structure as 140,000 deaths annually since 1970.
4.5 Group of people most at risk
The greatest impacts of climate change will be on people living in small island nations, coastal areas, metropolitan areas, and mountainous and polar regions.
Countries with poorly developed health systems will be the worst off in the face of changing environmental conditions. And the most vulnerable category of people are children, especially those living in poor countries, the elderly and those who already have any illnesses or health conditions.
Conclusion
In this term paper considered global climate change. It has been observed that the main factor in climate change on earth is anthropogenic.
It was also studied how global changes will affect the development of the planet as a whole, and climate change was considered in particular for the territory of the Russian Federation.
It was considered how climate change can affect humans, and what harm climate change can cause to humans.
List of sources used
Eye of the planet [ Electronic resource]
Science and technology [Electronic resource]
Earth climate change [Electronic resource]
Climate [Electronic resource]
Russia info [Electronic resource]
Vita portal [Electronic resource]
Global warming
Orlova Ekaterina
Global warming
Global warming is the process of a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean. Our planet is heating up and this is having a disastrous effect on the earth's ice caps. The temperature rises, the ice begins to melt, the sea begins to rise. Worldwide, ocean levels are rising twice as fast as they did 150 years ago. In 2005, 315 km 3 of ice from Greenland and Antarctica melted into the sea, for comparison, 6 km 3 of water is used in Moscow a year - this is global melting. In 2001, scientists predicted that sea levels would rise by 0.9 meters by the end of the century. This rise in water levels is enough to affect more than 100 million people worldwide, but already now many experts fear that their predictions may be wrong.
Causes of global warming
Climate systems change as a result of natural internal processes, and in response to external influences, while geological and paleontological data show the presence of long-term climatic cycles that take the form of glaciations. The reasons for such climate changes remain unknown, but among the main external influences are changes in the Earth's orbit (Milankovitch cycles), solar activity (including changes in the solar constant), volcanic emissions and the greenhouse effect. According to direct climatic observations (temperature changes over the past two hundred years), average temperatures on Earth have increased, but the reasons for this increase remain the subject of discussion, but one of the most widely discussed is the greenhouse effect.
The results of two large-scale projects to study the causes of global warming turned out to be sensational. The authors of the studies proved that the contribution of humanity to the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions is good if 10%. Industry and agriculture around the world are constantly increasing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which acts like a film in a greenhouse and does not allow excess heat to dissolve into space. And the emissions of millions of cars, the production of metals and building materials are accompanied by the release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
The rise in infrared absorption began at the same time as the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century and continues to this day. Over the past 250 years, 1,100 billion tons of carbon dioxide have been emitted into the atmosphere, and half of this amount has occurred in the past 35 years. In the pre-industrial era, its concentration was 280 parts per million, by 1960 it had reached 315 parts per million, and in 2005 it was 380 parts per million. Now it is increasing even faster, by about two points a year. According to paleoclimatic studies, our planet has not encountered such a rate of accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide for at least 650 thousand years.
Greenhouse gas emissions
The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first quantitatively studied by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. This is the process by which the absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases causes the atmosphere and surface of the planet to heat up. On Earth, the main greenhouse gases are: water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and ozone. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 have increased by 31% and 149%, respectively, since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th century. Such concentration levels have been reached for the first time in 650,000 years, a period for which reliable data have been obtained from polar ice samples. About half of all greenhouse gases emitted by mankind remained in the atmosphere. About three-quarters of all greenhouse gas emissions over the past 20 years have been caused by the use of oil, natural gas and coal. Most of the remaining emissions are caused by landscape changes, primarily deforestation. This theory is supported by the facts that the observed warming is more significant: 1. in winter than in summer; 2. at night than during the day; 3. in high latitudes than in middle and low ones. It is also a fact that the rapid heating of the troposphere layers occurs against the background of not very rapid cooling of the stratosphere layers.
Why does global warming sometimes lead to cooling?
Global warming does not mean warming everywhere and at any time. In particular, in some area the average summer temperature may increase and the average winter temperature decrease, that is, the climate will become more continental. Global warming can only be detected by averaging temperatures over all geographic locations and all seasons. According to one of the hypotheses, cold currents may appear (a branch from the El Niño current, which runs along the Northwest coast of the United States and brings cooling to this territory), the transformation of the Gulf Stream from warm to cold, etc. This will cause a significant drop in the average temperature in Europe (while the temperature in other regions will rise, but not necessarily in all), as the Gulf Stream warms the continent due to the transfer of warm water from the tropics.
According to the hypothesis of climatologists M. Ewing and W. Donn, there is an oscillatory process in which glaciation (ice age) is generated by climate warming, and deglaciation (exit from the ice age) - by cooling. This is due to the fact that in the Cenozoic, when the ice polar caps thaw, the amount of precipitation increases in high latitudes. In the future, there is a decrease in the temperature of the deep regions of the continents of the northern hemisphere, followed by the formation of glaciers. When the ice polar caps freeze, glaciers in the deep regions of the continents of the northern hemisphere, not receiving enough recharge in the form of precipitation, begin to thaw.
One of the most visible processes associated with global warming is the melting of glaciers.
Over the past half century, temperatures in southwest Antarctica, on the Antarctic Peninsula, have risen by 2.5°C. In 2002, an iceberg over 2,500 km² broke away from the Larsen Ice Shelf, 3,250 km² and over 200 meters thick, located on the Antarctic Peninsula. The entire destruction process took only 35 days. Prior to this, the glacier had remained stable for 10,000 years, since the end of the last ice age. The melting of the ice shelf led to the release of a large number of icebergs (over a thousand) into the Weddell Sea. However, the area of Antarctic glaciation is growing. The acceleration of the degradation of permafrost has been noted.
Since the early 1970s, the temperature of permafrost in Western Siberia increased by 1.0 °C, in central Yakutia - by 1-1.5 °C. In northern Alaska, the temperature of the top layer of frozen rocks has increased by 3 °C since the mid-1980s.
An increase in the frequency and intensity of dangerous weather events, the spread of infectious diseases. They cause significant economic damage, threaten the stable existence of ecosystems, as well as the health and life of people. The conclusions of scientists suggest that ongoing climate change can lead to even more dangerous consequences in the future if humanity does not take appropriate preventive measures, as well as an increase in the average annual temperature by 0.8 degrees Celsius, and this is just the beginning. If carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow at the same rate, by 2050 the planet will become 1.5 degrees warmer than it is now, and by the end of the 21st century - 3 degrees warmer. To understand how this threatens humanity, it is enough to remember that 3 million years ago, when average annual temperatures exceeded the current ones by 2-3 degrees, the level of the world's oceans was 25 meters higher than now. And an increase in the temperature of the planet by just a degree will raise the world ocean by 5-6 meters. The point is not only in the greenhouse effect itself, but also in its secondary consequences. Thus, an increase in temperature triggers numerous processes that increase its pace. For example, polar snows and ice strongly reflect the sun's rays and keep the cold climate of the Arctic and Antarctic. When they melt, the soil is exposed or the water surface increases, which absorb solar radiation much more strongly. The melting of the tundra permafrost zones leads to the evaporation of carbon dioxide accumulated there, as well as methane, which absorbs infrared rays 20 times more strongly. An increase in the temperature of the surface layers of the world's oceans near the equator leads to the fact that hurricanes that originate there become more frequent and destructive. Warmer temperatures will lead to more frequent and severe droughts and dramatically increase the risk of widespread wildfires.
They are also afraid of a lack of drinking water, an increase in the number of infectious diseases, and problems in agriculture due to droughts. But in the long run, nothing but human evolution awaits. Our ancestors faced a bigger problem when temperatures soared 10°C after the end of the ice age, but that's what led to our civilization. Otherwise, they would still probably hunt mammoths with spears.
10 myths about global warming.
one). Global warming is a natural process. The man is not involved.
Most likely not (temperature increases, especially since the 1970s, far exceed natural changes).
2). In any case, the consequences will be gradual.
Severe storms are becoming more frequent, and history has proven abrupt change climatic conditions can come suddenly, in just a few years.
3). Global warming will lead to a global flood.
If warming continues at the same pace, then the level of the world ocean will rise by 1 meter. If we assume that all the glaciers will melt, which, of course, is impossible, then the water will rise by 10 meters. And given that the average height of land above ocean level is 840 meters, then you should not worry so much about flooding.
4). Global warming is the only reason for sudden, unpredictable weather changes.
Far from the only one. There are a number of natural, cyclical processes to which global warming has nothing to do. And they are what can cause a sharp warming or cooling. Such factors can be ocean currents, cyclones, changes in the Earth's magnetic field, and just coincidences.
five). Carbon dioxide emissions are too small to cause global warming.
I would like to believe, but so far the facts deny it. According to statistical data that can be trusted, graphs of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and temperature at this time were plotted. They match.
6). Due to global warming, the temperature will soon rise so much that we will all die.
Not so much and not soon. Over the past 100 years, the temperature has risen by 0.7°C, - 1°C. And according to the boldest forecasts, in the next 100 years it may rise by another 4.6°C, but most likely this increase will not exceed 2°C. Less likely, but there are models that even predict a cooling.
7). It will only benefit agriculture.
Carbon dioxide can increase the yield of some crops, but it will also increase the number of weeds and pests. Plants will not be able to grow well in the same place due to the climate shift.
8). The causes of global warming are known.
Many believe that humans are entirely responsible for global warming and that only by stopping industrial activity can disaster be avoided. In fact, the problem of climate change is so new that it is now impossible to say exactly what causes it. The fact that it is happening is a fact, but the fact that it is the result of human anthropogenic activity is far from the only version. So, for example, there is a version that this is the result of natural processes occurring in the Sun - Earth - Space system.
nine). We know how to fight global warming, we have the technology
The strategic plan is under development. There are several large-scale options for combating global warming, but all of them are from the realm of fantasy, and they require huge investments comparable to the US budget, but a lot is better. small changes than one big one.
10). We can't do anything about it.
Everyone can already now contribute to the fight against global warming, if only by simply following the recommendations in consumer activity.
Solving the problem of global warming
This problem is dealt with by such organizations as the UN, UNESCO, WHO, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the World Weather Watch (WWW), the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCNPR), the World Charter for Nature, etc. International public organizations play an important role (GreenPeace). It was found that the main cause of global warming is the accumulation of CO 2 in the Earth's atmosphere. Later, due to scientific developments, as well as the experience of a number of countries, it was found that the reduction of CO 2 in the atmosphere can be achieved by:
Reducing the use of natural fuels in industry and replacing it with new types of energy (nuclear, solar, wind, tidal, geothermal);
Creation of less energy-intensive processes;
Creation of non-waste industries and production lines with a closed cycle (it has now been shown that in some processes, waste makes up 80-90% of the feedstock).
Therefore, a program was developed that should lead to the achievement of a number of main goals. First, the entire planet will move to stringent energy-saving standards, similar to those currently in place in the US only in California. Also, the UN program addresses environmental issues in various territories, problems of human health and welfare, the protection of terrestrial ecosystems, the World Ocean, vegetation, wildlife, environmental energy issues, as well as environmental education and information, trade, economic and technological aspects. In the WHO program, a special section includes research on environmental protection and its impact on human health. great attention the possibility of increasing the incidence of already known infections (malaria and other natural focal infections), as well as the possibility of new infections. The WMO program provides for the development of methods for long-term forecasting of possible climate changes and its impact on humans, as well as the impact of various factors on climate. The practical significance of the program lies in the fact that it will help nations use climate data in the planning and regulation of all parties. human activity. The INREP program summarizes the experience of all countries in the field of nature protection, identifies the main environmental problems of our time and offers a system of rational methods for managing biosphere resources. The WWW program coordinates the activities of all interested countries in the field of collection and exchange of meteorological information and has three world centers - in Moscow, Washington and Melbourne.
The world industry will switch to modern energy-saving technologies; in particular, it will be possible to double the efficiency of fossil fuel power plants due to more complete use of residual heat. One million large wind generators of electricity will be put into operation. 800 powerful coal-fired power plants will be built, the emissions of which will be completely cleaned of carbon dioxide. 700 nuclear power plants will be built, and none of the current ones will be closed. The global fleet of passenger cars and light trucks will switch entirely to vehicles that travel at least 25 km per liter of gasoline. Over time, all cars will get hybrid engines, which will allow them to run only electric motors powered by batteries on short routes. Another 0.5 million wind turbines will be built to supply them with electricity. Cultivation areas for agricultural crops that can serve as raw materials for the production of biofuels from vegetable cellulose will be dramatically expanded. Tropical countries, with the help of the international community, will completely halt the process of deforestation and double the current rate of planting young trees.
Tough environmental laws are already in place in many highly developed industrial countries: emissions cleaning requirements have been set, new technologies are being developed to prevent air pollution, standards for car exhaust emissions have been tightened, and so on. In some states (USA, Canada) a central body for environmental management has been created. Its purpose is the development of national environmental standards that ensure the improvement of the environmental situation and control over their implementation. The specificity of Japanese culture (the cult of housing, people, health) allows you to solve all problems not at the level of government agencies, but at the level of the city, district, which gives good results. In general, it must be said that in Europe the control of emissions into the atmosphere is not as strict as in the United States.
Consequences of global warming
Approximate scheme of the consequences of global warming.
The social aspect of this program is also great. Climate change will affect the interests of all inhabitants of the planet. And this can continue for a long period. A possible change in the economy of the state can lead to a change in the entire way of life of people in a particular territory. In addition, the predicted rise in the level of the world ocean and, in connection with this, the flooding of large areas of land, will require not only the construction of protective structures, but also the resettlement of entire peoples, which can cause social upheavals. The big problem of this plan will be the impact of climate change on human health, and, above all, the need to adapt it to new climatic conditions. It is possible that new diseases will appear and the level of existing diseases will increase. All the changes that occur on Earth do not pass without a trace for our body. Our barbaric attitude towards the Earth has made it aggressive for us. Environmental tragedy The earth passed into the physical and moral tragedy of man. Even conservative estimates predict that over the next 60 years, rising sea levels will destroy a quarter of all homes within 150 meters of the coast. Recent research paints a more troubling picture. By the end of the century, sea levels could rise as much as 6 meters and all of this could happen to all of us due to melting. Data analysis shows that over the past century, our planet Earth has warmed up one degree above average. According to scientists, in the next 50 years the temperature will rise by another 3-5 degrees, which will lead to serious consequences both for the Earth, and for people and the animal world.
China, which is one of the main suppliers of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, at the same time will feel the most Negative consequences warming in the 21st century. According to forecasts, even a sea level rise of 0.5 m will lead to flooding of about 40 thousand km 2 of fertile plains. The most vulnerable will be the vast lower reaches major rivers Huang He, Yangtze, etc., where the average population density sometimes reaches 800 people / km2. In addition, coastal erosion is significantly activated, which will lead to serious socio-economic consequences, especially in large cities located on the sea coasts. Changes can be extremely intense on well-developed shores, for example, the Black and Azov Seas, where natural development will be combined with intense anthropogenic impact, i.e. the removal of sediment from the beaches, the construction of dams and dams on rivers, the creation of bank protection structures, etc. The sandy bay-bars separating the estuaries in the North-Western Black Sea region and the Sea of Azov, as well as the spits of the Northern Azov region, will be destroyed most intensively. In the Kuban Delta, coastal lowlands are expected to be flooded. Coastal slopes composed of unstable loess will begin to recede faster. In the area of Odessa, Mariupol, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, in addition to the erosion of ledges, landslide and landslide processes will intensify, and coastal destruction can reach catastrophic proportions. surface water will be subject to rapid destruction due to the melting of ice and the collapse of overhanging ice blocks. It is possible that the areas of their distribution (Svalbard, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya, Severnaya Zemlya), the number of icebergs will increase in the waters of the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas.
Permafrost in 2025 and 2050
If the above predicted estimates of moderate (and even more so sharp) climate warming in the northern regions are justified, then by the middle of the new century, the appearance of permafrost in Russia will change significantly.
Comparison of the current characteristics of permafrost with the predicted ones was carried out by compiling a successive series of small-scale maps. In addition to purely permafrost characteristics (distribution of permafrost rocks, their thickness, temperature, ice content, depth of seasonal thawing), in order to assess possible changes in permafrost, it is necessary to take into account the composition of rocks, as well as the relief and the whole complex of landscape conditions. The diagram given in the article shows four zones. The first is formed by territories that are not part of the modern permafrost region. Here, seasonal freezing of soils to depths of no more than 4 - 5 m. By the middle of the XXI century. the depth and area of seasonal freezing will decrease. The remaining three zones cover the modern area of permafrost and differ from each other in varying degrees and timing of the onset of widespread deep thawing of permafrost from above. Its beginning is taken as the moment when the soil layer, which has thawed over the summer, does not freeze completely the next winter, and the roof of permafrost begins to progressively decrease. The time interval during which such rocks thaw completely depends not only on climate warming, but also on the composition and ice content of the rocks, their temperature and thickness, and on the influx of heat from below - from the depths of the Earth. This thawing can last for years, decades, hundreds and thousands of years. The second zone from the south is the territories where permafrost will thaw everywhere by 2020. It will form only within the West Siberian Lowland. Currently, only rare islands are found here. After their thawing, the southern boundary of the permafrost will recede to the north by 300 km or more, the thawing of peatlands swollen with ice will be accompanied by intense subsidence of the surface, but this will not bring serious changes to the natural environment and human activity: permafrost peatlands are rare and are practically not involved in economic development. The third zone combines two subzones, the boundaries between which are very whimsical and are not shown in our diagram. The first (from the south) includes territories where permafrost will begin to melt everywhere only by 2050. The fourth zone of relatively stable permafrost includes the northern part of the permafrost zone (the most upper layer the earth's crust, characterized throughout the year or at least for a short time (but not less than a day) by a negative temperature of soils and rocks and the presence or possibility of the existence of underground ice) with the lowest rock temperatures - from -3 to -16 ° C. Their power is measured in hundreds of meters. With the predicted scale of climate warming, deep thawing of permafrost in this area is excluded. Only the area of taliks will increase slightly.
Winter precipitation will increase the temperature of permafrost, and summer precipitation will lead to their destruction due to increased thermokarst (the process of uneven subsidence of soils and underlying rocks due to thawing underground ice), thermal erosion (combination of thermal and mechanical effects of flowing water on frozen rocks and ice), thermal abrasion (combination of processes of thermal and mechanical destruction of the shores of reservoirs under the influence of wave surf in coastal areas composed of frozen rocks containing a large number of underground ice bodies), and also landslide processes. They will manifest themselves most clearly on accumulative plains composed of ice-rich rocks, i.e. where the permafrost, due to its low temperatures and high thickness, will remain generally stable. With the destruction of the upper ice horizon, the surface is deformed significantly and, if protective measures are not taken in a timely manner, a threat hangs over engineering structures.
Global climate warming by the middle of the XXI century. can lead to a displacement of the boundaries of vegetation zones (tundra, temperate forests, steppes, etc.) potentially by hundreds of kilometers. So, in the northern regions of Eurasia, the boundaries of vegetation zones will move north by 500-600 km, and the tundra zone will significantly decrease in size. According to UNEP, the forecast of climate change will appear in the accelerated decline in the areas of tropical forests and savannahs in Africa. The given data on changes in Russia's natural zoning are generally favorable for the development of agriculture. This follows from the fact that the zone of broad-leaved forests, which is associated with a region of sustainable and highly productive agriculture, as well as the zone of steppe and forest-steppe, where efficient grain farming is possible, receives the maximum increment during climate warming. A significant increase in the area of land (by 4.7 million km2, i.e. 1.5 times more than modern), potentially suitable for agriculture, is expected. In a number of countries (USA, Great Britain, Sweden, Austria, etc.) study of a number of cultivated plants under conditions of elevated CO 2 concentrations. It has been established that doubling the concentration in many plants reduces the amount of transpiration (evaporation of water by the plant), increases the leaf surface. significant foci of forest diseases. Therefore, the measures already being taken to combat deforestation, to increase the rate of reforestation and improve the use of wood - all this will create optimal conditions for the development of forestry in the 21st century.
List of sources
1. http://ru.wikipedia.org
2. http://www.worldwarming.info
3. http://www.ecoindustry.ru/
Send your good work in the knowledge base is simple. Use the form below
Students, graduate students, young scientists who use the knowledge base in their studies and work will be very grateful to you.
Posted on http://www.site/
32 city scientific and practical conferenceMagnitogorsk Scientific Society of Students"Seekers, Thinkers of the 21st Century"
REPORT
Climate change: fact or fiction?
Scientific adviser: Zharova Maria Mikhailovna
Magnitogorsk, 2012
Introduction
Chapter 1. Weather and climate
1.1 Is it possible to do something to save the life of all living things
1.2 Scientists' hypotheses about climate change
1.3 Will the world end in 2012 due to climate change
Chapter 2. Citizens' opinions on climate change
2.1 Do you think climate change is really happening?
2.2 What do you think is causing climate change
2.3 Do you think it is possible to stop climate change on our planet?
Conclusion
Bibliography
Introduction
Scientists are confused - nature has never set such a multifactorial task before science. Many today are convinced that a global catastrophe is looming. Climate change has significant, perhaps even catastrophic, consequences for nature and humans. This is indeed a worldwide problem affecting all countries and regions.
The colossal power of nature: flood, elements, storms, rising sea levels. Climate change is changing the image of our planet. Weather quirks are no longer unusual, they are becoming the norm. The ice on our planet is melting and that changes everything. The seas will rise, cities may be flooded and millions of people may die.
Relevance of the problem
Currently, regions of the world are facing the problem of climate change and the impact of climate change on the environment.
Yuri Antonievich Israel - Russian meteorologist, academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, claims that the number of man-made disasters, their scale is increasing and they occur more often. Some natural disasters able to change the climate of the planet for a long time.
Andrey Sergeevich Monin, a Russian meteorologist, oceanologist and mathematician, believes that changes in the CO2 content in the atmosphere occur mainly due to natural causes. Hypothesizes influence space forces- location of the main bodies solar system- Changes in the earth's climate.
Objective
Conduct climate change research.
Tasks
Highlight problems and issues related to climate change, show their interconnections and solutions.
Research hypothesis
If there is a change in solar activity, a change in the angle of the axis of rotation of the Earth and its orbit, volcanic activity, external activity and human activity on nature, then climate change occurs.
Significance
We think it's very important to know - is climate change serious or is it a fiction of scientists? The significance of this is very great, because the underlying assumptions of climate change are human activities.
To avoid all this, many scientists and world organizations offer many ways to stop climate change on our planet. We would like to talk about some of these assumptions, conduct research and understand whether climate change can actually lead to catastrophic consequences.
weather climate volcanic sunny
Chapter1. Weather and climate
Many people confuse the definitions of weather and climate. Let's figure it out:
Weather is a set of continuously changing values of meteorological elements and atmospheric phenomena observed at a given time in a particular area.
The main property of weather is variability. Indeed, the weather can change several times a day. According to long-term observations, our area is characterized by types of weather: moderate, moderate cold, moderate warm.
Climate is a long-term statistical weather regime characteristic of a given area due to its geographical location.
Unlike weather, climate changes much more slowly, and climate is usually understood as the average value of weather over a long period of time.
The study of climate change is the science of paleoclimatology.
Paleoclimatology is the science of the history of changes in the Earth's climate.
Climate change is the fluctuations in the climate of the Earth as a whole or its individual regions over time, expressed in statistically significant deviations of weather parameters from long-term values over a period of time from decades to millions of years. Resizing and relative position continents and oceans, changes in the luminosity of the sun, changes in the parameters of the Earth's orbit, changes in the size and relative position of the continents and oceans - all these factors affect the change in the Earth's climate.
1. 1 Can anything be done forpreservation of the life of all living things
Many scientists are proposing climate change mitigation measures, but many of them cannot yet be implemented.
Installation of mirrors in Earth orbit, in order to reflect the "surplus" of sunlight in space. A very expensive project that cannot be implemented yet.
Increase in albedo (reflectivity) of the Earth's surface. Putting heat-insulating covers on glaciers, covering rocks, deserts, roofs of houses with white, genetic modification of woody plants and planting them in large areas.
Stimulation of the growth and reproduction of unicellular algae in the World Ocean, which should contribute to the intensive absorption of CO 2 from the Earth's atmosphere. It is also possible to artificially obtain "highly productive" species of unicellular algae. This method is associated with a radical restructuring of the ecosystems of the World Ocean, so its application in practice is a big question.
Artificial deposition of CO2 in the bowels of the Earth. Recently, German scientists have proposed the creation of storage facilities for plant debris, the creation of artificial trees.
These are not all methods of geo-engineering. Most of them are still difficult to translate into reality. Without a doubt, if in the future the climate ceases to suit human civilization or pose a threat to the existence of the Homo sapiens species, all kinds of technologies will be used.
We decided that many of these measures could lead to even more destruction of the environment.
Now there are many ways to stop climate change, but not all of them can really do it.
1. 2 Hypotheses of scientists about climate change
In order to predict the climate changes that await us, scientists rely on rather complex mathematical models that are built on the basis of observations in previous years and on the relationship of physical processes occurring on the surface of our planet.
Here are a few quotes from famous scientists:
Statement by Yuri Antonievich Israel, Russian academician, director of the Institute of Global Climate and Ecology:
"Indeed, plants and factories emit a significant amount of carbon dioxide. This amount is measured in billions of tons per year. And, of course, this is what affects a slight increase in temperature. If we talk about the last 30-50 years, then scientists are inclined to believe that it is very high the role of anthropogenic influence in the warming that is occurring".
Quote from the speech of Andrey Alekseevich Velichko, Russian professor, climatologist:
"The solar factor is one of the most important in the geological history of the Earth. We are now in a terrible contradiction. If we follow the geological data, we are heading for cooling. The natural trend is associated with cooling. Five to seven thousand years ago there was a cooling, then it became sharply warmer. Otherwise what has been in the last 5 thousand years. We are heading for a cold snap"
And here is what Ginzburg Vitaly Lazarevich, a Soviet physicist, academician of the USSR Academy of Sciences, thinks about this:
"Global warming is on the way - this is an observational fact. Its cause is largely human activity. Unfortunately, modern science cannot say for sure that somewhere around 50-70 percent is human influence, and natural factors - 30-50 percent. And for all I know, this is my expert opinion and the assessment of most serious scientists with whom I communicate, at least half, maybe more, on climate change is human activity"
A number of scientists associate climate change with the impact of volcanic eruptions. Researchers have established a difference in the impact on climate of volcanic eruptions in the northern hemisphere and in tropical latitudes. Much research has shown that eruptions in the tropics cause changes in climatic conditions in the northern hemisphere in winter and changes in atmospheric circulation in the upper latitudes in summer, scientists say.
TellsArkady Alexandrovich Tishkov, Russian professor, deputy director of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences:
"The onset of a new ice age may well occur without the help of a volcano. Scientists observing our star say this. It is with the Sun that the cooling cycles on Earth are associated, and the abnormal temperatures of this summer should not be misleading."
At the UN climate change summit in Copenhagen general secretary World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Michel Jarraud stated:
"The period from 2000 to 2009 was warmer than the 90s, which were warmer than the 80s, and so on." The main conclusion of the specialist is that if no action is taken, the average temperature on Earth will increase by 2 degrees Celsius long before the end of the 21st century.
In addition to the statements of scientists, there are many myths about climate change. For example, the death of the ancient city of Arkaim.
One of the versions of the tragic cessation of the existence of Arkaim was a severe drought that left the city and its environs without water. This hypothesis was confirmed by soil scientists of the Moscow State University. Scientists have found that the climate of the ancient city varied from cool and humid to very hot and arid, almost desert. This conclusion was made on the basis of a chemical analysis of the soil of the Arkaim valley. After the climate in Arkaim became arid and the drought lasted for more than one year, the inhabitants of the ancient city could not oppose anything to the forces of nature - they collected their things, put things in order in the city, then set it on fire and left these places forever
The hypothesis that the cause of the death of Arkaim was a severe drought is also confirmed by myths in the territory of the Southern Urals. For example, the main feat of the hero of the Bashkir epic Ural-batyr - the hero of the Urals is directly related to the fight against drought. The same is reported by the ancient Scandinavian myths. As strange as it may seem, they contain references to the Southern Urals.
From the hypotheses of scientists, we concluded that climate change in most opinions is due to human activities.
1.3 Will the world end at 2012 due to climate change
In the last decade, there has been renewed talk of the imminent end of the world. Many scientists name a specific year 2012 when the consequences of global warming could turn into the end of the world! In the next few years, due to global warming, floods and droughts await humanity. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently warned that the consequences of these cataclysms could turn into a real apocalypse, the end of the world, if decisive measures are not taken. The less people are ready to meet the raging elements, the greater the risk of not coping with a global catastrophe.
Even at school, we all went through geography lessons that the ozone layer, which saves us from radiation coming from space, is negligible, but despite this, humanity stubbornly uses everything that destroys it. The holes in the ozone layer are growing at an inexorable pace. What happens if it doesn't exist at all? The end of the world for all of us, the radiation of the Sun will simply kill all life.
These are the two main hypotheses of scientists about the end of the world. All these changes are really happening to our planet, but humanity does not stop it.
According to these hypotheses, whether the end of the world will happen or not, we cannot say for sure, but humanity is obliged to take all measures to save our planet.
Thus, we can say that climate change is really happening. Many facts testify to this:
1. Sea level rise;
2. The average annual temperature at the earth's surface has increased by 0.6 degrees Celsius;
3. Retreat of mountain glaciers in non-polar regions.
Many scientists are proposing climate change mitigation measures, but many of them cannot yet be implemented. For example, the installation of mirrors in near-Earth orbit, an increase in albedo, stimulation of the growth and reproduction of unicellular algae in the oceans.
The problem of global climate change is one of the key environmental problems of the Earth.
Scientists are coming to the conclusion that scientific predictions of climate change should be taken seriously, and the fact of global warming recent decades undeniable, after which an ice age may come.
Chapter2. Citizens' opinions on climate change
To understand what ordinary citizens think about climate change, we conducted surveys on this topic.
2.1 Do you think that the changeLimata is really happening
We interviewed people of different ages - schoolchildren, young people, people of mature and old age and calculated the percentage of all answer options by category.
After analyzing all the answers, we can conclude that the majority of respondents believe that climate change is really happening. Most of all, people of mature age and young people are sure of this, as they more often study scientific literature, the media.
2.2 What do you think isis the cause of climate change
The results of the survey show that human activity is still a clear cause of climate change, confirmation of this is our sociological survey.
2.3 Do you think it is possible to stopclimate change on our planet
From the above answers to this question we can conclude that most people are sure that climate change can really be stopped and it depends on the desire and capabilities of a person.
Following from our opinion polls, a final conclusion can be drawn. It consists in the fact that the vast majority of respondents are inclined to the opinion of real climate change, like many scientists. And for most people, human activity is the cause of climate change. After all, man is main reason destruction of all living things. But man is still trying to stop the extinction of animal and plant species. Therefore, it is impossible to say unequivocally that human guilt is involved in climate change. The recent regional climate changes, of course, have affected humanity, but so far it is impossible to single out the main reason for this.
We believe that it is necessary to inform people more about climate change, as it is very important both for public health and for economic activity.
Conclusion
Studying the issue of climate change, we came to the conclusion that the problem of global climate change affects almost all spheres of human activity. And here it is necessary to develop measures and methods for regulating the Earth's climate system. In addition, it is necessary to develop integrated climate models that make it possible to predict climate change and, on their basis, plan the activities of mankind in such areas as industry, agriculture, and transport. It should be taken into account that in addition to the influence of anthropogenic factors, the climate on our planet certainly depends on many processes occurring in the Earth-Sun-Space system. After all, the sun is the main source of heat in the climate system. Solar energy, converted into heat on the Earth's surface, is an integral component that forms the Earth's climate. Glaciers are one of the most sensitive indicators of climate change. They significantly increase in size during climate cooling and decrease during climate warming. Volcanism, along with all of the above factors, is one of the main causes of climate change, since one strong eruption volcano can affect the climate, causing a cooling lasting several years.
By conducting surveys, we realized that climate change on our planet worries and interests not only scientists, but also ordinary citizens. The hypothesis was confirmed. Thus, based on our work, climate change affects areas important for the prosperous life of humans, animals and plants, such as: cattle breeding, land use, solar radiation, volcanism. If you do not take action, then all this can lead to tragic consequences. We need to think about the future of our planet!
Bibliography
1. Influence of astrophysical and anthropogenic factors on global climate change of the Earth, Yu. Yu. Balega; VV Vlasyuk, Assessment of the Ecological State of Ecosystems, 2000, Vol. 3, p. 28-32.
2. Glaciological Dictionary, ed. V. M. Kotlyakova, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1984, 527 p.
3. Kotlyakov V. M., World of snow and ice., M., Nauka, 1994., 286 p.
4. Nikanorov A. M., Khoruzhaya T. A. Global ecology, Moscow, Prior, 2001.
5. Sidelnikov A., Is the fate of Arkaim really waiting for us?, Magnitogorsk metal, 2010, No. 145, p. nine.
Posted to site
Similar Documents
Climate and factors affecting its change - changes in the frequency and amount of precipitation, rising sea levels, threats to ecosystems and biodiversity, melting glaciers. Impact of climate change on human health. Natural disasters.
term paper, added 11/24/2014
The main factors influencing the formation of climate, types of climates of the earth. Natural and anthropogenic climate change. Dangerous weather phenomena, their characteristics. Study of anthropogenic impact on the atmosphere within the Polochansky rural region.
term paper, added 01/18/2016
The problem of global warming. The problem of studying the rotation of the Earth. Climate change trends. An increase in the average annual temperature. Sea level rise. Reducing the volume of glaciers. Currents in the World Ocean. Dynamic model of the Earth's rotation.
term paper, added 10/13/2016
Justification of the diversity of climate on earth. Reasons for the development of atmospheric movements. The ocean and climate fluctuations. Interoceanic water circulation. Change in the distribution of potential temperature. Analysis of the temperature contrast in the northern and southern hemispheres.
abstract, added 09/05/2014
Study of the climates of the Neogene and Quaternary periods, glacial and interglacial epochs. Reconstruction of the climatic past. Indirect climate indicators. Composition of modern atmospheric air. The impact of greenhouse gases on the heat balance of the Earth.
abstract, added 10/09/2013
Analysis of the influence of the main factors of climate change: glaciation, greenhouse gases, lithospheric plate tectonics, solar radiation, volcanism, orbital changes. The role of anthropogenic impact: fuel combustion, industry, aerosols, land use.
abstract, added 11/17/2010
The value of climate as a long-term weather regime, characteristic of a given area due to its geographical location. Characteristics of the main climatic indicators. Dependence of forest growth on climate. Analysis of climatic classifications.
presentation, added 03/12/2015
Study of natural and climatic conditions in the village of Kuvykovo in order to better understand the features and nature of weather changes. Establishment and forecasting of the shift in the timing of the seasons of the year over the past five years. Findings from climate change research.
practical work, added 01/14/2011
Physical and geographical position, as well as the conditions for the formation of the climate of the mainland. Features of the climate of South America: atmospheric circulation, amount, intensity of precipitation, prevailing air masses. Characterization and comparison of climatic zones.
term paper, added 01/26/2017
A characteristic of the essence of climate, which is usually understood as the average value of weather over a long period of time (about several decades), that is, climate is average weather. Determination of regional differences in the climate of African countries.
Shatkovsky municipal district
MOU Smirnovskaya secondary school
Research
Global warming:
the greenhouse effect
from. Smirnovo
year 2013
1) Study materials on global warming;
2) Find out the causes of global warming;
3) Experimentally test the greenhouse effect;
3) Determine: what impact this problem has on people's lives.
Stages of work:
To study the causes contributing to the emergence of "global warming";
Experimentally test the greenhouse effect;
Consider the impact of global warming on the lives of people, cities, entire states;
Conduct a survey among students.
Introduction.
In order to get to know this topic as best as possible and try to find all possible ways to solve this problem, first of all, you need to correctly understand the term “Global warming” itself, consider all the reasons that cause these terrible disasters, with the consequences of which I will try to acquaint you. One of the problems of global warming, such as the "greenhouse effect", I examined in more detail.
Causes of global warming
The main methods for tracking changes are:
Historical documents and annals,
Archives of meteorological observations,
Measurements of the area of the polar caps, ice, vegetation zones and tracking of atmospheric processes thanks to satellite photography,
Analysis of fossil animals and plants,
Radiological analysis to ancient polar ice,
Observation of glaciers, climate change is especially visible if you look at photos of glaciers taken in the same month of different years.
Climate indicators: ocean level change (blue), 18 O (ozone) concentration in sea water, CO 2 concentration in Antarctic ice. The division of the time scale is 20,000 years.
The diagram shows that sea level peaks, CO 2 concentrations and 18 O minima coincide with interglacial temperature maxima.
Climate systems change both as a result of natural internal processes and in response to external influences (anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic).
At the moment, none of the scientists can say with complete certainty exactly what causes long-term climate change. There is a certain number of the most reliable assumptions recognized as working hypotheses by research centers in the USA, Russia and Europe. We list them here.
First hypothesis: Solar Activity
The sun is the only and main source of heat for our planet, and even the smallest cyclical changes in its activity greatly affect temperature fluctuations. Scientists believe that the sun has at least three different activity cycles: 11, 22-year, and approximately 90-year. Coincidences and discrepancies of these cycles explain temperature fluctuations. In addition, it is assumed - but not proven - that there is a much longer cycle of growth in solar activity, approximately a thousand years. Thus, climate change is natural and will subside on its own over time.
Second hypothesis: a shift in the angle of rotation of the earth and a gradual change in orbit.
According to the author of the hypothesis, these astronomical changes cause a gradual shift in the radiation balance of the planet, and hence the climate. Astronomer Milankovich, guided by this theory, quite accurately (according to paleontologists) calculated the dates and duration of past ice ages of our planet. According to this hypothesis, changes will occur over tens, and possibly hundreds of thousands of years, but this hypothesis is unlikely to be relevant to the relatively rapid global warming of the last century.
The third hypothesis oceanic.
The oceans cover three-quarters of the planet's surface area and are the most powerful factor influencing climate and climate change. At present, the nature of this influence has been studied rather poorly, for example, the average temperature of the oceanic column is 3.5 ° C, and the surface of the earth is 15 ° C, so the speed and rate of heat exchange between the ocean and the lower layers of the atmosphere can be the cause of significant climatic shifts. . In addition, the amount of carbon dioxide dissolved in the waters of the ocean is more than 60 times greater than its total amount in the atmosphere, and as a result of some natural processes, greenhouse gases can enter the atmosphere from the ocean, significantly changing the Earth's climate.
Hypothesis four: Volcanoes.
Each volcanic eruption ejects as much aerosols, gas and dust into the upper atmosphere as the whole of humanity produces in a few years. All recorded cases of volcanic activity were accompanied by a short-term cooling due to dust emission, and subsequently by a long-term increase in the average annual temperature due to carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere.
Fifth and the most discussed hypothesis regarded as the main cause of global warming human activity.
One of the most widely discussed causes is the anthropogenic greenhouse effect.
the greenhouse effect
The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824. He suggested that the earth's atmosphere serves as a kind of glass in a greenhouse: the air lets in the sun's heat, while preventing it from evaporating back into space. The same thing happens in greenhouses, which is where the term "greenhouse effect" comes from. This effect is achieved due to some atmospheric gases of secondary importance, for example, water vapor and carbon dioxide. They transmit visible and "near" infrared light emitted by the sun, but absorb "far" infrared radiation, which has a lower frequency and is formed when the earth's surface is heated by the sun's rays. If this did not happen, the Earth would be about 30 ° colder than it is now, and life on it would practically freeze. This means that the more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the more infrared rays will be absorbed, the warmer it will become.
In the natural biosphere, the content of gas in the air was maintained at the same level, since its intake was equal to its removal. Humans are currently upsetting this balance by cutting down forests and using fossil fuels.
Now mankind annually burns 4.5 billion tons of coal, 3.2 billion tons of oil and oil products, as well as natural gas, peat, oil shale and firewood. All this turns into carbon dioxide, the content of which in the atmosphere has increased from 0.029% at the beginning of the 20th century to 0.035% at the present time. In addition, emissions into the atmosphere of another greenhouse gas, methane, have sharply increased (the concentration in the atmosphere has increased by 140% compared to the beginning of the 20th century), as well as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and carbon oxides, which absorb infrared radiation 50-100 times stronger, than CO 2 . Therefore, although their content in the air is much lower, they affect the temperature regime of the planet in much the same way.
To understand the essence of the greenhouse effect, I performed practical work THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT(Attachment 1).
Objective:
Understand the essence of the greenhouse effect,
Build a demonstrative model,
Find out how surfaces of various materials absorb thermal energy.
Here are the results of my work.
In nature, this effect appears when the cloudiness increases in the late afternoon. At night, heat does not go into outer space, there is no strong temperature difference. At the same time, dark soil heats up more than light soil, since darker surfaces absorb energy more. This phenomenon can be seen in the temperature graphs.
Population and production growth markedly change chemical composition atmosphere, increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in it.
Over the past century, the average recorded temperature of the surface atmosphere has increased by 0.8°C, which is not explained by any of the "natural" hypotheses, especially since changes of this magnitude usually occurred over many hundreds of years. And over the past 20 years, the rates have increased even more - 0.3-0.4°С.
The most plausible assumption seems to be that the global warming that we observe is the result of a coincidence immediately a large number factors, especially since the planet Earth is a huge living organism that we have studied too little.
Consequences of global warming
Here are ten of the scariest effects of global warming.
1. The spread of disease.
The habitat of dangerous insects is getting hotter, and the climate of the northern countries is warmer and more temperate, ideal for their existence. Insects move north, bringing with them all the diseases that they themselves can become infected with. This effect cannot be stopped, because in fact scientists have not been able to destroy dangerous viruses in countries in which they are already present, not to mention those that can still become infected. 
2. Floods.
When the water level in the oceans rose, floods became the first symbols of global warming. An increase of at least another meter will lead to incredible consequences. For example, it will be able to easily remove one-sixth of the entire territory of Bangladesh, many islands will become history, even the highest dams will not be able to withstand the rapid flow, so a significant part of the coastline of the continents will disappear. In addition, rising temperatures cause more intense water evaporation, making showers more frequent and heavy. 
3. Hurricanes.
Global warming causes an increase not only in the atmospheric temperature, but also in the ocean. Hurricanes are powered by warm waters. As the effects of global warming have been getting worse over the past few years, we have witnessed several such hurricane disasters during this period, proving that our bad attitude towards the planet will not go unnoticed. 
4. Drought.
Drinking water is already a luxury in parts of Africa, but the worst is yet to come. This continent will be the most affected by the big climate change, as will the southern part of Europe. The lack of fresh water can cause conflicts and war. Small rivers and lakes will disappear all over the world. And this is a real disaster for the living organisms that lived in them. With the loss of their habitat, they will also disappear without a trace. 
5. Forest fires.
In arid regions, wildfires are dealt with every summer. California, Australia and Greece have suffered the most in the past decade. However, they will not be the only ones if climate change continues. Every year spring comes earlier, causing the snow to melt faster, thereby depriving the earth of moisture for a long period of time. That is why forest fires are becoming more and more frequent every year. 
6. Harsh winters.
Global warming makes the climate look very strange. While some parts of the world suffer from drought, others from floods, some suffer from severe winters. For example, countries such as Germany, Poland and Slovakia have suffered the coldest winters in recent years. 
7. Smog. 
When someone dies from smog, it will definitely mean that humanity's behavior towards the planet has reached its peak. Luckily, we haven't reached that point yet, but the smog is slowly creeping up on its victims. The mix of many pollutants in the air (nitrogen oxides, tropospheric ozone, volatile organic compounds, etc.) make large cities a terrible place for people who suffer from asthma or other respiratory problems.
8. Increase in volcanic activity.
The rapid melting of glaciers located on the tops of the mountains will contribute to their growth. The fact is that the ice, which for millions of years pressed the mountains to the surface of the Earth, has disappeared, thereby allowing them to rush higher. As a result, many volcanoes will wake up, which will release solid particles into the atmosphere, helping global warming and paralyzing air traffic. However, the most dangerous in this case will be the deadly effect of lava for people who live near volcanoes.
Scientists have found that global warming can cause thunderstorms that are dangerous to humans. They will spawn more often and hit with more force. You can observe them in arid regions, but they will not bring downpours with them, but simply hit the ground, causing fires.
10. Loss of biodiversity.
If the average temperature rises, humanity risks losing as much as 30% of animal and plant species. This will happen due to desertification, loss of water, deforestation, as well as due to the inability to adapt living organisms. The scientists noted that some of the more resilient species have migrated to the poles to maintain the habitat they need. A person is not protected from this threat either. 
Our contribution to the protection of nature
In my survey, 78% of respondents agreed with the global warming hypothesis, but 14% denied the fact of global warming. (diagram #1)
The question was then asked about the impact of global warming. However, the topic of global warming was discussed, of course, only with those who believe that it is really happening. Most of them 82% believe that global warming negatively affects the life of mankind, and only a few consider its impact positive 5% or deny any impact of this process on people's lives 12%. (diagram #2)
Then the respondents were asked about the causes of global warming. At the same time, half of those who consider global warming to be real consider it exclusively as a result of human activity - 70%, as a result of a combination of anthropogenic and natural factors - 24%, and only some 6% believe that climate change is entirely due to natural processes. (diagram #3)
And the last question was whether a person can stop the process of climate change. In my survey, 30% of respondents believe that prevention is not possible, 70% have the opposite view. (Diagram No. 4)
Those who believe that resistance to warming is possible have been asked an open question about what exactly humanity can do. Respondents spoke about the need to respect nature in general (88%), about limiting and controlling industrial emissions and introducing new cleaning systems (65%), stopping deforestation (94%), it is necessary “All countries should take this problem seriously and join forces” to solve the problem of global warming at the international level (98%).
Every year we take part in the regional action "Let's make the world cleaner". Schoolchildren and teachers clean the adjacent and assigned territories from garbage, patronize the monument to the soldiers who died during the Great Patriotic War.
The environmental protection operation "Clean Pond" was successfully completed, within the framework of which high school students cleaned the banks of the largest pond in Smirnov, Barsky Pond. During operations "School Garden" and "Rural Park", about 1,000 seedlings of fruit and berry and other plants were planted by schoolchildren.
The operation "Feeding Trough" was very interesting at the school, in which schoolchildren of grades 1-6, pupils of the preschool educational institution and their parents took part.
Students are very active in research activities environmental focus. Research is carried out both in the classroom and outside of school hours. Under the guidance of teachers, the children studied in detail the water bodies of the villages of Smirnova, Kostyanki, Alemaeva, Vechkusova; studied the Trinity holiday from the point of view of ethno-ecology; to the problems of protecting forest plants, they found not only an ecological approach, but also a poetic one. To many research work additionally decorated albums with paintings by artists or with their own illustrations.
Our school is also actively working with the population. Ecological leaflets and leaflets with a call not to litter, to protect the environment, etc. regularly appear in various public places.
Within 10 recent years MOU Smirnovskaya secondary school closely cooperates with World Organization for the protection of nature GREENPEACE. So in May 2012, we participated in the Green Weekend campaign, in which interesting events and environmental projects were held. During this action, the area around the school was put in order, a fair of "unnecessary" things was organized.
At the suggestion of GRINPIS, many schoolchildren and teachers took part in the “Second Life of Things” competition. Photos of things made from garbage were presented. Mikhail Dedaev, who assembled a bicycle from scrap metal, was declared the winner of the competition. All participants were awarded certificates, badges, and the winners - gifts.
During the action "Green Weekend" the school corresponded with the organizers. We received a lot of warm words for the work we do.
I am very pleased to make my own, albeit small, contribution to solving the problem, which is now the No. 1 problem in the world. It is not in vain that we try to improve the situation so that our life would be easier and better.
Output
According to the results of research by the UN Intergovernmental Commission, the consequences of global warming are disappointing. Most of Europe will be flooded. The melting of mountain glaciers and permafrost regions will begin. Agriculture Southern Europe and Asia will suffer from an unprecedented drought. In Africa, the amount of drinking water will decrease, infectious diseases carried by mosquitoes and other insects will become more frequent. The island states will be completely flooded.
Despite such pessimistic forecasts, there are scientists who do not share them. The latest images from Earth satellites do not confirm these fears, which means that there is hope to prevent the impending threat. Greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by improving energy efficiency and switching to less hazardous fuels such as natural gas. It is possible to slow down the expenditure of such an irreplaceable natural resource like fossil fuel. And the use of energy should be transferred to alternative environmentally friendly technologies. How rather humanity will understand about their destructive activities, the greater the hope for preventing a global catastrophe.
Literature:
A.V. Sakharov. Development cognitive interest students to the study of physics on the basis of experimental tasks of an ecological orientation. Arzamas, 2000
Install the lamp 20-30 cm directly above the vessel so that the light falls on the bulb of the thermometer.
Turn it off, let the temperature drop to room temperature. Record this temperature.
Turn off the lamp. Let the temperature drop to room temperature. Moisten the soil again and repeat the experiment by removing the lid of the vessel.
Construct a graph by plotting temperature on the y-axis and time on the abscissa.
Do the same work again, replacing the dark ground with a light one.
Table 1
| Time (min) | Temperature (0 C) |
|||
| with lid | Without cover |
|||
| Dark ground | Light coloured priming | Dark ground | Light coloured priming |
|
| 1 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 26 |
| 2 | 29 | 27,5 | 26 | 26 |
| 3 | 30 | 27,5 | 27 | 26 |
| 4 | 30 | 27,5 | 27 | 27 |
| 5 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 27 |
| 6 | 30 | 28 | 28 | 27 |
| 7 | 31 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| 8 | 31 | 29 | 28 | 28 |
| 9 | 31 | 29 | 28 | 28 |
| 10 | 32 | 29 | 28 | 28,5 |
| 11 | 32 | 29 | 28 | 29 |
| 12 | 32 | 29 | 28,5 | 29 |
| 13 | 32 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| 14 | 32 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| 15 | 32 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| 16 | 32 | 29 | 29,5 | 29 |
| 17 | 33 | 29 | 29,5 | 29 |
| 18 | 33 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| 19 | 33 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| 20 | 33 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
Appendix 2
Do you agree with the global warming hypothesis?
Rice. one
What impact does global warming have on humanity?
Fig.2
What are the causes of global warming? Underline whatever applicable.
Rice. 3
What exactly can humanity do? List specific actions.
Rice. 4
What is being done in your school to solve this problem? List activities.
