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Not so long ago, on our resource "", a material called "" was published, which raised the question of the existence of alien intelligent civilizations in the Universe. But if there this possibility itself was called into question, then here we will consider a formula that often serves as a refutation of the above-named paradox. This formula is called the Drake equation.
Some general data
It’s worth starting with the fact that there is a special project under the general name “SETI” (an abbreviation for Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence). It includes various projects and activities aimed at searching for extraterrestrial civilizations and making contact with them. The project has existed for several decades (since 1959), almost from the moment when the American astronomer Frank Drake conducted his first experiment. Searches for "SETI" are based on listening to radio waves that other civilizations can send from the depths of space. Drake himself already then considered this an indicator of a high-tech society, as well as the most acceptable and reasonable means for searching for extraterrestrial life forms.
The probability of detecting any signal at a distance of more than 500 light years is practically zero, i.e. 500 light years is the limit within the radius of which modern technologies can find any radio signal at all. It follows from this that the so-called "Great Silence", which is constantly detected by radio telescopes, does not yet mean that another life in the Universe is not possible. And a higher chance of asserting something with a less solid degree of certainty can only appear if the earth's "receivers" can increase the signal reception range by at least another 900 light years.
In the middle of the last century, mankind had even less data on this topic. However, already at the time when Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin became the first person to orbit the Earth (1961), Frank Drake developed his own equation, which makes it possible to approximately estimate the number of possible alien civilizations in our galaxy, called the Milky Way. This equation is based on methods for detecting electromagnetic pulses.
Drake equation
The Drake equation is formulated as follows:
N = R * Fp * Ne * Fl * Fi * Fc * L, where:
N is the number of intelligent civilizations that are ready to make contact
R is the number of stars that appear during the year in the Milky Way galaxy
Fp is the percentage of stars that have planets in their orbits
Ne - the average number of planets and their satellites, the conditions of which are suitable for the origin of life
Fl is the probability of life appearing on a suitable planet
Fi is the probability of the appearance of intelligent life forms on planets where life is possible at all
Fc - the ratio of the number of planets on which intelligent life forms are capable of contact and are looking for it, to the number of planets on which there are intelligent life forms at all
L is the time that intelligent life exists, can make contact and wants to do so
Analysis of the Drake Equation
Considering the Drake equation, it becomes obvious that the value of N cannot be precisely determined. In addition, as you move through the equation from left to right, the estimates of all quantities become more and more abstract. However, this equation should not be evaluated only by numbers. Some researchers are convinced that given formula there is only a way of some organization of human ignorance. And if we consider the hypothesis of the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence from a purely mathematical point of view, then the opportunity to get an answer to the question about the number of alien civilizations is significantly limited. The value of L is the most important in the whole equation. A person cannot know how long a technologically advanced civilization can last. And even if we assume that there is only one alien civilization, and exists for billions of years or even eternity, then this will be enough to equate N and L in the equation.
But to search for extraterrestrial intelligence only by listening to radio waves would be a mistake. Thanks to the development of astrobiology and cosmology, human perception of the cosmos and the development of other forms of life has changed dramatically. At the beginning of the existence of SETI, its specialists predicted the rapid development of terrestrial radio technologies and the growth of radio exchange, but the point-to-dash-to-point connection faded against the backdrop of satellites sending their signals to the Earth, and the emphasis in telecommunications shifted from radio to fiber optics for the Internet. traffic and cable TV, which means that there will be no serious radio signals from Earth for at least another hundred years.
Another weak point of the formula is the number of planets on which intelligent life forms can develop. Presumably, their number should be within 10 thousand in our galaxy. But at the present time there is no evidence that there is any fundamental principle that could direct the primary substance on the path of development in Homo sapiens. And this question will remain unanswered until confirmation of life is found on at least one planet in the solar system.
Among other things, the Drake equation does not take into account such indicators as the age of the galaxy itself and chemical-mechanical parameters, for example, the presence of certain elements necessary for the formation of planets and the origin of life. According to some experts, the Drake equation does not imply a universe that is constantly in dynamics, but a special cosmological constancy.
The formula contains an approximate number of Earth-like planets, but does not provide an estimate of when intelligent life forms appear on these planets. The enormous age of our galaxy and the likelihood that intelligent life could have been present on its planets both 2 and 4.5 billion years ago, but could have already died out, do not give practically any space for detecting radio waves.
To date, astronomers have found about 2,000 extrasolar planets. And the total number of stars like the Sun can be over 40%. But many planets are too big and are in orbits very close to "their" stars. These planets are called "Hot Jupiters". However, according to scientists' forecasts, if search methods are improved, it will be possible to find smaller planets with more suitable orbital characteristics. Plus, over the past twenty years of research, it has been possible to find out that billions of planets can exist in the Milky Way, on which life is possible that can exist in extreme conditions, for example, with an increased content of carbon dioxide, at depths up to 10,000 meters and even in sulfuric acid.
But, despite the "flaws", Drake's equation greatly influenced people's thinking. Mainly, it served as the starting point for the emergence of astrobiological science. The eminent American astrophysicist Carl Sagan praised the fact that the equation showed a high percentage of detection of intelligent extraterrestrial life. And not so long ago, in 2010, the Italian astronomer Claudio Maccone published his version of the Drake equation, a statistical Drake equation that is more complex but also more reliable. Using the new formula, McConne was able to determine that 4,590 extraterrestrial civilizations could exist within the Milky Way alone, which is more than 1,000 more than the number that was obtained in the classical version of the equation. In addition to this, the new formula showed that in addition to human civilization there may be up to 15,785 others with high technology.
But even if the various galactic communities were at the same distance from each other, its average value would be 28,845 light years, which makes it impossible for any contact between these communities, even if it were carried out with the help of electromagnetic radiation moving at a speed Sveta. And even if such a number of civilizations existed, interstellar communication between them would experience very serious technological problems.
In fact, the Drake equation is subject to scrupulous and detailed study, and without being an expert in the relevant field, it is quite difficult to really understand what's what. But our goal was by no means an exhaustive explanation of the equation, but only an indication that scientists around the world take the issue of the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence more than seriously and this has very good reasons.
Does such a beach exist anywhere off Earth? The answer to this question is given by the Drake equation.
The Drake Equation is a formula designed to figure out the number of alien civilizations that humans can come into contact with. It was developed in 1960 by astrophysicist Frank Drake to justify the scientific nature of SETI, the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.
What is the point?
The task of the formula is to find the number N - the number of civilizations that can get in touch with each other. It is obtained by multiplying six main factors:
- R is the number of stars born per year (10, hereinafter based on Drake's own estimates).
- fp is the proportion of stars with planets. (0.5)
- ne is the number of habitable planets in a star. (2)
- fl - the chance of the appearance of life in favorable conditions. (1 - if there are conditions, then life will definitely appear)
- f c - the ratio of the number of planets where there are inhabitants looking for contact, to the number of planets on which there is simply life. (0.01 or 1 percent)
- fi - the chance of intelligent life appearing where life simply exists. (0.01)
- L is the period of existence of developed life that wants to enter into interplanetary contact (10 thousand years).
The final result according to Drake is 10. As many as ten extraterrestrial societies that can get in touch with us! But why are they silent then?
During the conference in the city of Green Bank, located in Virginia, USA, which was held in 1961, a dispute arose between scientific participants, astronomers and astrophysicists on the topic of the report of physicists Philip Morrison (born in 1915) and Giuseppe Cocconi (born in 1914) . It discussed the possibility of scientists around the world, who had just begun to break through to a serious level of receiving and decoding radio signals, to receive a message and communicate with civilizations of other worlds in the galaxy, through radio telescopes. There were also reflections on the fact that if such intelligent extraterrestrial civilizations exist, then most likely they are already sending signals and may be ready for contact with earthlings. It is only necessary to receive these signals and decipher them qualitatively. Moreover, during the conference a problem was posed: how can one calculate the number of such intelligent civilizations ready to contact us?
Literally the next day (namely, on the night of November 1-2), after this question was raised, the American radio astronomer Frank Drake recommended using the following formula for calculating the number of extraterrestrial civilizations (VC, aka N)
N = R?P?Ne?L?C?T?L, in which:
- R is the number of stars that are formed in the Universe every year;
- P is the chance that the star has a system of planets;
- Ne - the probability that between these planets there is one on which there will be a chance for the birth of life;
- L is the possibility that life can actually originate on such a planet;
- F is the probability of the emergence of intelligent life forms on the planet;
- C - the real probability that life that originated on the indicated planet has chosen a technogenically developing path, it has the means by which it can communicate through signals in space and is ready to contact other worlds;
- T is the standard average time during which a civilization that would like to contact other worlds constantly sends out radio signals in the hope of communicating with the EC.
N = N*?P?Ne?L?F?C?T/Tg, in which:
- N* is the number of all stellar objects in our galaxy;
- Tg is the lifetime of our galaxy.
- R is the number of stars equal to 10 that open each year;
- P - it is assumed that half of the stellar objects have planets;
- Ne - found that only two planetary objects can have life;
- L - equates to 1, if conditions allow, then life on the planet will definitely arise;
- F is only a hundredth of the probability that life on the planet will be intelligent;
- C - only 1% intelligent worlds who are ready and express desires for contact with other worlds;
- T - an indicator of 10,000 years (a civilization that leads technological development lives for about 10,000 years).
However, during the passage of the above conference, only the number of stars that can form from year to year, that is, the variable R, could be known. Regarding other parameters in this formula, for example, Ne (the number of terrestrial planets), it is very ambiguous . If we take our solar system as a basis, then in it you can choose both the singular Ne (our Earth) and the plural (for example, the five planets of our system, such as Venus, Earth and Mars, and any one large satellite of the giant planets Jupiter or Saturn) objects of space with the properties and description of the planets.
If we take forecasts with an optimistic future, then our Galaxy is simply crammed with worlds that have sufficient technological development (N), and our civilization is just a young and inexperienced creature compared to them. Thanks to this, the news immediately became an accessible mass media, and then the idea was formed and settled in the minds of all people that the terrestrial civilization is not the only one in the Universe and extraterrestrial intelligence exists.
However, over time, the optimistic forecast that the Drake formula gave rise to becomes very distant. If we take the solar system as an example, then the possible origin of life on planets is very unlikely, and if it is possible, then only under a huge layer ocean ice on Saturn's moon Europa. Since 1961 (the year of the Green Bank Conference), terrestrial astronomers have been discovering multiple planetary systems around stars that have long been known, but, alas, they very vaguely resembled our own, the Solar System. Since their planetary objects have orbits with the shape of highly elongated ellipses, with a very large eccentricity (the degree of deviation from the circle numerical characteristic canonical section). That is, the temperature indicators that occur on these planets during the year have a very large difference and are not suitable for the development of protein life on these planets.
It was also found that the necessary indicators that characterize the ability to retain water on its surface for a body, which is considered a planet, for a huge period of time (which is calculated in billions of years), without its evaporation and (or) freezing are quite large. And so far only our Earth corresponds to them, since no more such planetary objects have been found. This is explained by the fact that the radius of the body, if it does not correspond to certain parameters even by a few hundredths, then life on the planet will not arise or will be destroyed.
In 1981, astronomers rethought the Drake formula applicable to the then scientific research and discoveries. The value of N was calculated, equal in approximate calculations to 0.003. That is, 3 out of a thousand (or one out of three hundred) systems of star clusters should have a civilization that has a fairly developed technogenic base and expresses a desire to communicate. That is, following the calculations, the percentage of detection of such a civilization is 1:300.
Since then, no progress has been made to increase this figure. There is a lot of criticism about this formula, which cannot give an exact result, but its consideration has led to the development and allocation of funds (several million dollars) for the promotion of astronomy and many natural sciences (biology, geology, etc.), and also specifically VC search programs. Although, according to this formula, two variables can be exactly substituted:
- R - then, the number of stars formed per year in the Universe and which can be determined;
- P is the probability that the star has a system of planets.
History
Drake formulated the equation in 1960 while preparing for the Green Bank teleconference. This conference marked the program
The equation is also often referred to as the Green Bank equation, as this is where it was first introduced. When Drake came up with this formula, he did not expect it to serve as an argument for supporters of Carl Sagan, a well-known supporter. A related argument is the Great Filter, which claims that the absence of observable civilizations provided huge amount observed stars is explained by the fact that there is a certain filter that prevents contacts.
Thus, the main meaning of the equation is the reduction of the big question about the number of intelligent civilizations to seven smaller problems.
Historical parameter estimates
There are many opinions on most parameters, here are the numbers used by Drake in 1961:
- R= 10/year (10 stars are formed per year)
- f p = 0.5 (half of the stars have planets)
- n e = 2 (on average, two planets in the system are habitable)
- f l = 1 (if life is possible, it will definitely occur)
- f i = 0.01 (1% chance that life will develop to a reasonable)
- f c = 0.01 (1% of civilizations can and wants to make contact)
- L= 10,000 years (technologically advanced civilization exists for 10,000 years)
The Drake equation gives N= 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10000 = 10.
Value R determined from astronomical measurements, and is the least discussed quantity; f p is less defined, but also does not cause much discussion. Reliability n e was quite high, but after the discovery of numerous gas giants in orbits of small radius, unsuitable for life, doubts arose. In addition, many of the stars in our galaxy are red dwarfs, emitting hard X-rays, which, according to simulations, can even destroy the atmosphere. Also, the possibility of the existence of life on the satellites of giant planets, like Jovian Europa, or Saturnian Titan, has not been investigated).
Depending on the assumptions made N often turns out to be much larger than 1. It was precisely such estimates that served as the motivation for the movement
Some results for various assumptions:
R= 10/year, f p = 0.5, n e = 2, f l = 1, f i = 0.01, f c = 0.01, and L= 50,000 years N= 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 50,000 = 50 (at any given time there are about 50 civilizations capable of contact)Pessimistic assessments, however, argue that life rarely develops to a reasonable, and advanced civilizations do not live long
R= 10/year, f p = 0.5, n e = 2, f l = 1, f i = 0.001, f c = 0.01, and L= 500 years N= 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.001 × 0.01 × 500 = 0.05 (we are most likely lonely)Optimistic estimates claim that 10% can and want to make contact, and at the same time exist up to 100,000 years:
R= 20/year, f p = 0.1, n e = 0.5, f l = 1, f i = 0.5, f c = 0.1, and L= 100,000 years N= 20 x 0.1 x 0.5 x 1 x 0.5 x 0.1 x 100,000 = 5,000Contemporary estimates
This section provides the most reliable parameter values to date.
R = star formation rate
Rated by Drake as 10/year. The latest results from NASA and the European Space Agency give a value of 7 per year.
f p= proportion of stars with planetary systems
Rated by Drake as 0.5. According to recent studies, at least 30% of solar-type stars have planets, and given that only major planets, this estimate can be considered underestimated. Infrared studies of dust disks around young stars suggest that 20-60% of solar-type stars can form Earth-like planets.
n e= Average number of suitable planets or satellites in one system
Drake's score is a 2. Marcy notes that most of the discovered planets have highly eccentric orbits or pass too close to the star. However, systems are known that have a solar-type star and planets with favorable orbits (HD 70642, HD 154345, or Gliese 849). It is probable that they have terrestrial-type planets in a habitable region, which were not discovered due to their small size. It is also argued that a sun-like star or an Earth-like planet is not required for life to arise - Gliese 581d could also be habitable. Although about 200 planetary systems are known, this only gives n e> 0.005 . Even for a planet in the habitable zone, the emergence of life may be impossible due to the lack of some chemical elements. Also, there is the Unique Earth Hypothesis, which states that the combination of all the necessary factors is extremely unlikely, and perhaps the Earth is unique in this regard. Then n e is considered to be extremely small.
f l = Probability of life in the right conditions
Rated a 1 by Drake. In 2002, Charles Lineweaver and Tamara Davis rated f l as > 0.13 for planets with more than a billion years of history based on Earth statistics. Lineweaver also determined that about 10% of the stars in the galaxy are habitable in terms of having heavy elements, distances from supernovae and are quite stable in structure.
f i = The probability of development before the emergence of intelligence
Rated by Drake as 0.01.
f c= Percentage of civilizations that have the ability and desire to establish contact.
Rated by Drake as 0.01.
L = The life expectancy of a civilization during which it attempts to establish contact.
Drake's estimate is 10,000 years. In an article in Scientific American, Michael Schemmer rated L in 420 years, based on the example of sixty historical civilizations. Using statistics from "modern" civilizations, he got 304 years. However, the fall of civilizations has generally not been accompanied by a complete loss of technology, which would preclude them from being considered separate in the sense of the Drake Equation. At the same time, the lack of methods of interstellar communication also allows us to declare this period zero. Value L can be counted from the date of the creation of radio astronomy in 1938 to the present day. In 2008, therefore, L not less than 70 years old. Such an estimate, however, is meaningless - 70 years is the minimum, in the absence of any guesswork about the maximum. 10,000 years is still the most popular value. R= 7/year, f p = 0.5, n e = 2, f l = 0.33, f i = 0.01, f c = 0.01, and L= 10000 years
We get:
N= 7 × 0.5 × 2 × 0.33 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10000 = 2.3Criticism
Since only one planet is currently known to support intelligent life, most of the parameters in the Drake equation are determined based on assumptions. However, the presence of life on Earth makes the hypothesis of the existence of extraterrestrial life at least possible, if not probable. In 2003, science fiction writer Michael Crichton stated in a lecture at Caltech: “To be precise, the Drake equation is absolutely meaningless and has nothing to do with science. I take the view that science can only create testable hypotheses. The Drake Equation cannot be tested and therefore I cannot attribute SETI to being like a religion, it cannot be refuted."
We also note that the experiments of light years from the Sun are a civilization that uses a certain section of the radio range for communication.”
One response to criticism of the Drake Equation is that, even though it does not give exact numbers, the equation nevertheless provoked serious discussions of astrophysics, biology, geology and allowed significant funds to be allocated to the development of astronomy, focusing attention on the practical aspects of searches.
Alexander L. Zaitsev drew attention to the fact that being able to establish contact and establishing it are two different things. Mankind is able to pick up a radio signal from the nearest stars, but at the same time does not make regular targeted attempts to transmit its messages. Zaitsev proposed to introduce the METI factor (METI-coefficient), which determines the proportion of civilizations that purposefully send signals.
Drake equation in culture
- The Drake Equation is mentioned in episode 20 of season 2 of the American comedy series The Big Bang Theory by Howard Wolowitz to prove that their company has a chance to meet girls in a bar.
- There are mentions of him in the famous comic book http://www.xkcd.ru/384/
Ulyanovsk Automobile Plant
Annotation:
This article shows in a new way the question of the search for extraterrestrial civilizations. Generalizes the Fermi paradox and the Drake equation with modern research NASA on the Kepler telescope and the theory of Adam Frank, Woodruff Sullivan. The article reveals the relationship between the degree of development of civilization and the presence of radio waves that it generates. the main idea- on the certain stage The development of a reasonable civilization must necessarily use radio communications. The article expresses the idea that sooner or later living matter will get to all exo-planets and will develop where there are suitable conditions. The article estimates the number of star systems in our 4 billion year old galaxy that have exoplanets, and also gives an approximate number of intelligent civilizations present in our galaxy. Proof of the existence of civilizations in our galaxy is given. The SETI search problem is shown in a new way.
This article shows in a new form the search for extraterrestrial civilizations. Summarizes the Fermi paradox and the Drake equation with modern NASA research on the Kepler telescope and the theory of Adam Frank, Woodruff Sullivan. The article reveals the relationship between the degree of development of civilization and the presence of radio waves, which it generates. The main idea - at a certain stage of development, a reasonable civilization must use radio communication. The article expresses the idea that living matter will sooner or later end up on all exo planets and will develop where there are suitable conditions. The article estimates the number of star systems in our galaxy 4 billion years old, on which there are exotic planets, as well as an approximate number of intelligent civilizations present in our galaxy. The evidence of the existence of civilizations in our galaxy is given. The SETI search problem is shown in a new form.
Keywords:
space; time; speed; radio signals; civilization; evolution; galaxy
space; time; speed; radio signals; civilization; evolution; galaxy
UDC 52-54
INTRODUCTION
Having comprehended the gigantic dimensions of the universe and the time of its existence, a person involuntarily thought: are there creatures similar to us in its vast expanses.
And humanity, using the latest achievements of science, began to intensively look for other civilizations. Although people thought about the search for brothers in mind in ancient times, we started to use science to solve this issue recently.
Consider the problem of searching for extraterrestrial civilizations from the 60s of the twentieth century to the present day, summarizing the research of modern scientists, that is, the Fermi paradox and the Drake equation with modern NASA research on the Kepler telescope and the theory of Adam Frank, Woodruff Sullivan.
The Fermi paradox and the Drake equation. classical theory
Fermi paradox - the absence of visible traces of the activity of extraterrestrial civilizations, which would have to settle throughout the universe over billions of years of their development. The paradox was proposed by physicist Enrique Fermi, who questioned the possibility of finding extraterrestrial civilizations here on Earth, and is associated with an attempt to answer one of the most important questions of our time: “Is humanity the only technologically advanced civilization in the Universe?”. An attempt to answer this question is the equation Drake , which estimates the number of possible extraterrestrial civilizations for contact. It gives, for some choices of unknown parameters, a fairly high estimate of the chances of such a meeting.
The paradox can be postulated as follows: On the one hand, numerous arguments are put forward that there should be a significant number of technologically advanced civilizations in the Universe. On the other hand, there are no observations that would confirm this. The situation is paradoxical and leads to the conclusion that either our understanding of nature or our observations are incomplete and erroneous. As Enrico Fermi said: “Well, where are they then?”
Drake equation
N = R * fp * Ne * fl * fi * Fc * L where:
N
R
fp
Ne
fl
fi
Fc- the ratio of the number of planets on which intelligent life forms are capable of contact and are looking for it, to the number of planets on which there are intelligent life forms at all
L
Explanation of the Fermi paradox and modification of the Drake equation
Now we will try to explain the Fermi paradox in a simple form, understandable to any average person, by changing the Drake equation. To simplify the perception of distance, we will measure in billions of light years, and time in billions of years.
And so, according to different calculations, different values \u200b\u200bare obtained N - the number of intelligent civilizations existing in our Milky Way galaxy .
numbers used by Drake in 1961:
R = 10/year (10 stars formed per year)
fp = 0.5 (half of the stars have planets)
ne = 2 (on average, two planets in the system are habitable)
fl = 1 (if life is possible, it will definitely occur)
fi = 0.01 (1% chance that life will develop to a reasonable)
fc = 0.01 (1% of civilizations can and wants to make contact)
L = 10,000 years (a technically advanced civilization exists for 10,000 years)
The Drake equation gives N = 10 * 0,5 * 2 * 1 * 0,01 * 0,01 * 10 000 = 10 .
Other assumptions give values very close to zero for N, but these results often collide with a variant of the anthropic principle: no matter how small the probability of intelligent life, such life must exist, otherwise no one could ask such a question.
Some results for various assumptions:
R = 10/year, fp = 0.5, ne = 2, fl = 1, fi = 0.01, fc = 0.01, and L = 50,000 years.
N = 10 * 0,5 * 2 * 1 * 0,01 * 0,01 * 50,000 = 50 (at any given time there are about 50 civilizations capable of contact)
Pessimistic assessments, however, argue that life rarely develops to a reasonable level, and advanced civilizations do not live long:
R = 10/year, fp = 0.5, ne = 0.005, fl = 1, fi = 0.001, fc = 0.01, and L = 500 years.
N = 10 * 0,5 * 0,005 * 1 * 0,001 * 0,01 * 500 = 0,000125 (we are most likely lonely)
Optimistic estimates claim that 10% are able and willing to make contact and still exist for up to 100,000 years:
R = 20/year, fp = 0.1, ne = 0.5, fl = 1, fi = 0.5, fc = 0.1, and L = 100,000 years.
N = 20 * 0.1 * 0.5 * 1 * 0.5 * 0.1 * 100,000 = 5000 (we will most likely make contact).
Modern researchNASA and the Frank-Sullivan theory
The latest NASA research on the search for exo-planets (planets with suitable conditions for life) using the Kepler telescope and the likelihood of intelligent life on them are summarized in the article "A new empirical limit on the prevalence of technological species in the Universe" by world scientists Adam Frank and Woodruff Sullivan, published in the journal "Astrobiology" in May 2016 . The authors argue that the actual number of exoplanets in our galaxy is far greater than Drake thought, but the likelihood of intelligent life occurring is negligible. According to the authors, the probability of the emergence of intelligent life on a suitable exo-planet is 10 -22 . This astronomically small value suggests that we are alone, not only within our galaxy, but even within the observable universe. Here is a popular picture from the article , which is full of the entire Internet (Fig. 1).
Fig.1 Modification of the Drake equation in the article by Adam Frank and Woodruff Sullivan.
In this case, the Drake equation is reduced to only two factors instead of five.
A = N ast * F bt , where:
A- number of intelligent civilizations
N ast - number of exoplanets
F bt - likelihood of intelligent life
We get
N ast - 100 billion - 10 11
F bt - ten to the minus 22 power - 10 -22
A= 10 11 * 10 -22 \u003d 10 -11, that is, 1 in 100 billion.
In general, scientists Adam Frank and Woodruff Sullivan did not modify the Dreck equation, but derived their own, without taking into account big number factors. All of the theory is based on calculating the probability of the emergence of intelligent life forms.
Theory of Alexander Panov(theoretical calculation of the number of intelligent worlds in our galaxy)
If we take into account such factors as the rate of formation of stellar systems in a given time interval of the existence of our galaxy, the distances to planets with intelligent civilizations, the factor of the finiteness of the lifetime of stars, the distribution density of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy, as well as the point in time at which we determine the number of intelligent civilizations , resulting in much smaller numbers. The theory that takes into account all the coefficients was applied in his article “Dynamic Generalizations of the Drake Formula: Linear and Nonlinear Theories” by AD Panov. He used complex formulas and logarithmic dependences. The author of the article does not give exact figures on the number of intelligent civilizations, but only gives graphs "from" and "to", and so according to the linear theory [ 3, p. 117 ] at a given point in time, there are about 900 to 1000 intelligent civilizations, and according to a non-linear [ 3, from 119 ] - from 3300 to 3400.
GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
The goals and objectives of this article are to summarize the research and conclusions of the theories outlined above, and to present this generalization in an understandable language without complex formulas and calculations (“Everything ingenious is simple, as Einstein said”).
Correction of coefficients and modification of the Drake equation
Let's analyze the coefficient fc (for Drake) - the number of civilizations that can and wants to establish contact. In all calculation options, this value is 0.01, that is, only 1%. Why?
Consider this concept "wants" make contact: any advanced civilization (even if it is in the Stone Age) wants to make contact. Indeed, this is the nature of the development of civilization, that is, evolution, and this is the desire to expand spheres of influence, obtain new technologies and resources in order to work out a strategy for further existence, development and survival. Yes, just out of curiosity. Incidentally, our civilization is also doing this: what is evidenced by the fact that there are Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 probes carrying information about human civilization that have left the solar system. If a civilization is at a much higher level than we are, then it, too, is likely to establish a contact that will personify the conquest of a new colony, as the old world of Europe conquered colonies in Africa, India and America.
"Maybe" establish: we do not know exactly when life originated on our planet, because we are talking about billions of years, especially when intelligent life originated. And, in general, did it originate on our planet? Based on the theory of Charles Darwin, a man who descended from a monkey ran for millions on the earth with stones and clubs. But now the time has come and it took him only 10,000 years (in terms of the evolution of our planet this is an instant) to move from stone ax technology to radio communications, computers and a nuclear bomb. From that moment on, radio waves began to enter outer space, carrying information about us and propagating at the speed of light, and in no way will our civilization, like any other, be able to remove these traces of its existence. And radio communication and, accordingly, radio waves are signs of the development of any technological civilization, of course, if a civilization is technically much more advanced than ours, then it does not use communication based on the transmission of radio waves, since this communication is not suitable for deep space (a radio signal from Mars It takes 40 minutes to get to Earth. But in the past, when civilization developed, it certainly left traces in the form of radio signals.
So we can conclude that the value of the coefficient fc is indicated by Draco incorrectly and any civilization (100%) can and wants to establish contact, including ours, so the coefficient fc equals 1, multiplying by 1 gives nothing, so this coefficient can be ignored.
So, if we do not take into account the coefficient fc, we get a new modification of the Drake equation.
N= R* fp* * f* fi* L where:
N- the number of intelligent civilizations that are ready to make contact
R- the number of stars that appear during the year in the Milky Way galaxy
fp- percentage of stars that have planets in their orbits
Ne- the average number of planets and their satellites, the conditions of which are suitable for the origin of life
fl- the probability of the appearance of life on a planet suitable for this
fi- the probability of the appearance of intelligent life forms on planets where life is possible at all
L- time for which intelligent life exists, can make contact and wants it
At the same time, the number of civilizations in all versions of the calculations of the Drake equation increases by 100 times.
Correction of the Frank-Sullivan coefficients and modification of their theory
In their article, Adam Frank and Woodruff Sullivan claim that the probability of the emergence of intelligent life 10 -22 . This is an infinitesimal quantity. But where did it come from? This value includes the probability of the emergence of life in general, as such, starting from the simplest forms, on this particular exo-planet. However, scientists have now discovered traces of the simplest life forms on Mars, and have also experimentally proved that lichens and blue-green algae in the simulated martian atmosphere feel better than earthly conditions. In addition, some microorganisms and their spores can spend indefinitely in outer space. a large number of time, after which, getting into favorable conditions, they begin to revive . Thus, traveling to outer space from one planet to another, spores of the simplest organisms can colonize all exo-planets. So with great confidence that life exists on all exo-planets, at least in its simplest forms.
An exo-planet is a planet with suitable conditions for life, on which, among other things, there is water in a liquid state. Let's briefly analyze the images of the planets from the official website of NASA, taken with a telescope Kepler.
Fig. 2 Our planet "Earth". For comparison.
Fig. 3 Planet "Kepler-22b". Exceeds the earth in size by about 4 times. Has an atmosphere and clouds. The atmosphere is much thicker and denser than Earth's. The blue-green color may indicate the presence of algae in the water of the fresh ocean covering the entire surface of the planet. But most likely, the surface of the planet is not visible due to the dense atmosphere, since the image shows that the atmosphere also has a blue-green color. So we can conclude that the surface of the planet is covered with some kind of gas. The probability of life on such a planet is very small.
Fig. 4 Planet "Kepler-69c". Exceeds the earth in size by about 2 times. Has an atmosphere and clouds. The atmosphere is much thicker and denser than the earth's and there are much more clouds, the blue color of the surface, very similar to the color of the earth's oceans, may indicate that the entire surface of the planet is covered with water in a liquid state, and maybe methane. The probability of life on such a planet is very small.
Fig.5 Planet "Kepler-62f". a little more land to size. Has an atmosphere and clouds. The atmosphere is transparent. On the surface, land and water are visible. There is much less water than on earth. Most likely, life will arise on this planet.
Fig.6 Planet "Kepler-186f". Slightly larger than the earth. Has an atmosphere and clouds. In fact, the twin brother of our Earth. Most likely, life will arise on this planet.
Where did these images come from? In reality, on the Kepler telescope, the planet is displayed in the form of a point, even in the form of a single pixel. All of these images most likely represent computer models of exoplanets. But even if these images are just computer models, and modern computers have such colossal powers that even with scarce data, for example, in size, surface temperature, spectrum and radiation intensity, they can make up a real model. Therefore, there is a probability that life will develop into a reasonable one within billions of years, at least on Kepler-452b and Kepler-186f. Here, the process called "evolution" and the theory of Charles Darwin are in full operation. We can observe it in our reality as well. For example: everyone known fact that bacteria pathogenic staphylococci, disease-causing humans, adapt to the action of antibiotics so quickly that scientists do not have time to develop new drugs . Microbes have to survive and they do it successfully, and we can observe the process of evolution in real time. living matter able to constantly evolve. The process of evolution accelerates when the environment of existence changes and organisms have to adapt to new conditions. This is confirmed by the geological history of our planet: ice ages and floods, movements of the continents, earthquakes and the fall of giant meteorites. These cataclysms, which took place over millions of years, did not lead to the destruction of life, but, on the contrary, led to its evolution and transition into a reasonable form. So, the conclusion suggests itself: the age of our Milky Way galaxy is so great that it is enough for the evolution of living matter from the simplest unicellular organisms to a reasonable state, and it is not a fact that on our planet the conditions for the emergence of intelligent life are better than on other exo -planets.
Frank and Sullivan in their equation do not take into account the parameter L - the time during which intelligent life exists, is ready to make contact, but in vain. Without taking this parameter into account, it is not clear how many civilizations there are at a given time. The lifetime of a civilization is a rather controversial indicator, since it is very difficult to guess how long a civilization will last. If all the resources on the daughter planet run out, then the civilization dies out, let's say 10,000 years (like Drake). If a civilization has mastered the colonization of other planets in its star system, including those unsuitable for life and the development of resources on them, then it can exist for millions of years, and traces of its existence - even billions (until the star's life cycle ends). It is not difficult to see that our civilization has come very close to the stage of colonization of planets in our solar system, and the sun has another 2 billion years to the stage of a red giant. In addition, when the lifetime of our civilization ends, after it the orbit of the Sun will remain artificial satellites with information about us and our technologies that will emit radio waves in outer space receiving power from solar panels.
Here there is a certain relationship in the technological development of civilization between the ability to colonize planets and transmit radio signals. These two points in the development of technology in the time interval are very close, and in the time scale of the universe (billions of years), you can generally combine them and make one point. Of course, at this point in time there can be various cataclysms, an asteroid impact, a collision of planets, bursts of gamma radiation, etc. But matter is so scattered throughout the universe that the probability of this event in a given period of time is negligible.
As a result, to take into account all kinds of force majeure and assumptions, we will take the time of existence of one technologically highly developed civilization capable of generating radio waves for at least 100 million years.
Now you understand what scale in question? With the above corrections, according to Drake alone, there should be millions of technologically advanced civilizations in our galaxy ready and willing to make contact.
However, Drake made his equation in 1960, then at NASA
there was no Kepler telescope. Now, in order to get an adequate number of intelligent civilizations present in the Milky Way galaxy at a given time, it is necessary to use completely different parameters, while relying on the data of the Kepler telescope.
Let us assume that it takes an average of 4.3 billion years (approximate age of the solar system) for the development of life from the simplest microorganisms to an intelligent civilization of our level. The lifetime of a civilization during which it uses radio communications and generates radio signals is 100 million years (as indicated above). Therefore, it is necessary to determine the number of star systems in the galaxy with exoplanets aged from 4.2 to 4.4 billion years. Let's say 0.0001 (only 0.01% of the stars in our galaxy meet our conditions). Based on the analysis of the computer models above, only half of the exoplanets can give rise to intelligent life. The number of exo-planets is 100 billion. We get an equation of the form:
N R \u003d 0.5 * O m * N ast\u003d 0.5 * 10 11 * 0.0001 \u003d 0.005 billion (or 5 million), where
Om- number of exoplanets in our galaxy
N ast- for the total number of star systems with exoplanets aged 3.9 to 4.1 billion years.
5 million is the approximate number of intelligent civilizations that are present in our galaxy at this point in time, excluding civilizations that existed much earlier and have already died out.
According to Alexander Panov's theory, the figures are much smaller than the above calculations (N R = 5 million), but all the same, based on his calculations of civilization, at the moment there are at least 900 (according to the linear theory) technologically advanced civilizations in the galaxy. In his article, the author took into account such a factor as the distance to planets with intelligent civilizations, so we can conclude that the figures given in the article by Panov A.D. is the number of civilizations from which we must receive radio signals at the moment.
Now let's estimate: The age of the Milky Way galaxy according to the latest data of scientists is about 11.4 billion years, the diameter of its disk is only 100,000 light years. The age of the solar system is 4.3 billion years. That is, 4.3 billion years have passed from a gas and dust cloud to a star system with a highly developed civilization. Now let's find out the time that was before that 11.4 - 4.3 = 7.1 billion years, which is almost twice as long as the age of the solar system. Of course, at the beginning of the origin of the Milky Way, there could have been conditions unsuitable for the emergence of life: a high level of radiation, gigantic gravitational forces, high temperatures and an aggressive environment in interstellar space itself. But there is more than enough time (7.1 billion years), so we can say with confidence that highly developed civilizations ready for contact arose much earlier than ours, maybe even before the emergence of the solar system.
If we estimate the size of the Milky Way and its age, then the radio signals generated by civilizations should have left the Milky Way long ago, and not just to cross it. All these calculations are given only on the scale of our galaxy, what can we say about the scale of the universe ...
Now the technological development of mankind has reached a high level, modern technology is capable of receiving radio signals of any frequency and amplitude, of any, even ultra-low power, scientists are scanning space with the latest advanced radio telescopes, but alas nothing …. And the most important question: Why??? So it turns out we're really alone in this big world? But this cannot be, you can't deceive the theory of probability... Given the above, Fermi's question has become even more paradoxical.
Even if: Quote - "The entire Galaxy, including the solar system, has long been colonized by the EC, but THEY do not show their presence, since galactic ethics require that developing civilizations be given the opportunity to solve their problems on their own." End of quote. [ 4] , then all the same, when THEY were developing up to the point where we are now, they had to use radio waves and communications based on them at some stage.
And one more big BUT: even if we received these radio signals from distant space from our brothers in mind, who are at the level of development at which we are, then “we should not expect from them spaceships and probes” (as Igor Prokopenko said in the program “Territory of Delusions”), because the distances separating us cannot be overcome even by civilizations that were able to colonize the planets of their star system. From the nearest star (Alpha Centauri), light reaches the solar system in 4.3 years, but there are no habitable planets there. The nearest exoplanet is in the star system Gliese 667, 22 light years from Earth. Even if accelerated to about the speed of light, the round trip would take at least 50 years. However, to carry out such a journey is a technically very difficult task, it may even be impossible. At lower speeds, travel is not relevant, since they will take time comparable to the lifetime of the civilization itself. Considering such gigantic distances, interstellar flights are not relevant even at light speeds.
CONCLUSIONS
1. Without a doubt, there are intelligent highly developed civilizations in our galaxy, and at a given moment in time we must receive radio signals that are traces of the activity of at least nine hundred intelligent civilizations.
2. Find traces of another civilization on present stage development of technology, we can only by the presence of its radio signals.
3. We will not be able to make contact with our brothers in mind, via radio (the fastest that is in the universe), because the time to send and receive messages is too long. Physical contact with another civilization is all the more impossible because of the great distances.
4. For contact, other principles of communication and movement in space are needed than those that we use now.
CONCLUSION
Why, after all, do we not detect the radio signals of our brothers in mind?
It can be assumed:
A) Einstein's theory of relativity is wrong on some points:
Radio waves and light do not propagate as he expected, then in general it will be necessary to look through the whole theory of relativity, the shift of the red spectrum, and, consequently, the distance to stars, the age of galaxies, etc.;
The radio signals of civilizations can be absorbed by space and do not reach us, since the signal source is too weak, and the light from much more powerful sources of stars and planets reaches;
The radio signals of civilizations can be neutralized by more powerful emitters: stars and quasars;
B) The radio signals are so weak that we do not yet have the technical means to pick them up.
C) They hide the presence of radio signals from us.
About time and space
According to Einstein's theory of relativity, the fastest thing in the universe is the speed of light, but the distances are so huge that from the side of an external observer we get gigantic time intervals of the processes taking place in it. Here we have a huge imbalance in the speed of space. This imbalance gives a huge time, incommensurable with the lifetime of an intelligent civilization, so we have no choice but to make assumptions, as Einstein did when he wrote his theory, of course, much of this has been tested in practice (again, in a completely meager part of space surrounding us), but much remains in question. What is relativity? Yes, in the fact that we can observe in the universe only processes that take place at the speed of light, and we don’t know how things are at the moment, for example: we see a star or even a galaxy, or rather light from it, but in reality it has long not anymore. And again, we measure the distance in light years (the distance that light travels in a year), but in fact this is time. As if it turns out that time is time, and distance, in fact, is also time. Time is a fundamental quantity in the universe, as it controls all processes. It turns out that there is no fifth dimension, there are not even three dimensions of space, but there is only one dimension - this is time, which forms the universe around us with its infinity.
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Reviews:
05/22/2017, 8:51 Dolbnya Nikolay Vladimirovich
Review: Dolbnya Nikolai Vladimirovich Review: The article deals with an important problem for human civilization: Are we alone in the Universe? The purpose of the article is a scientific summary of research in this area from the beginning of the 60s of the last century to the present day. The author has achieved this goal, so I think that the article should be published in the journal SCI-ARTIKLE.
