Civil war breaks out in South Sudan. The reasons for Africa are traditional: the unwillingness of the elites to share the proceeds from the plunder of the country and tribal disunity. There are no serious reasons for the opposing sides not to engage in a deadly fight, so a violent and prolonged conflict seems almost inevitable.
The secession of black South Sudan from Arab Sudan and the creation of an exemplary democratic African state there has been one of the favorite projects of the international community. Khartoum was quite rightly criticized for racism, religious intolerance, forced Arabization, lawlessness, authoritarianism, predatory pumping of oil from the southern regions of the country, corruption and other features of typical Eastern despotism. It is generally agreed that getting rid of the tyranny of the brutal northern dictator Omar al-Bashir (wanted for war crimes, by the way) would open the way for southerners to a more or less tolerable life. US President Barack Obama went even further, promising "a peaceful and prosperous future for all the South Sudanese people."
I must say that Obama was somewhat wrong in his forecasts. What happened in South Sudan after the declaration of independence in 2011 will not be called peace and prosperity even by the most convinced optimist. Prosperity for the whole nation did not work out from the very beginning. The only competitive South Sudanese commodity on the world market is crude oil. And the only way to deliver it to buyers is an oil pipeline passing through Sudan to the Red Sea. As the authorities in Juba explained, Omar al-Bashir had raised such prices for pumping oil that it became unprofitable to sell it. The Sudanese dictator himself, by the way, did everything possible to strengthen his bad reputation among former fellow citizens: for example, his aircraft periodically bombed the oil fields of southerners. As a result, South Sudan failed to get rich quick selling oil.
Photo: Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah / Reuters
Despite the forced removal of the "raw material curse", other sectors of the newborn country's economy did not develop rapidly either. But it is not so much the old ruler who is to blame for this, but the new ones - they spread horrendous corruption in the country. Investment is also hindered by the idiosyncratic understanding of property rights in South Sudan. For example, pastoralists wandering from pasture to pasture in the Nile Valley do not disdain the opportunity to increase their herd at the expense of colleagues they meet on the way. An interesting detail: the weaning of cows and bulls is carried out in ancient, one might say, ways - with the help of bows, arrows, swords and spears.
The peace hoped for by the American president turned out even worse. Numerous rebel groups that fought against the Sudanese troops quickly retrained into gangs leading either a sedentary lifestyle (terrorizing the local population) or nomadic (arranging raids on settled fellow citizens). Against the backdrop of weakness central government and complete lawlessness in remote areas of the country, the slave trade flourished. The army units sent to disperse these gangs, to the displeasure of the local residents, often rob their fellow citizens with zeal.
But lawlessness, corruption and authoritarianism are not the main problems of the youngest country in the world. The greatest danger to South Sudan is the deep-seated mutual hatred between the main ethnic groups, the Dinka (about 15 per cent of the population) and the Nuer (10 per cent). It should be noted that the figures, of course, are very approximate, since no one knows exactly what the population of the country is in principle.
The history of relations between the Dinka and the Nuer is replete with cases of mutual massacres. Even during the war against Khartoum, in rare moments of rest, representatives of the two nationalities slaughtered each other, as well as all others who came to hand. Actually, many robberies, murders and cattle rustlings in "peacetime" were carried out according to the ethnic principle. The Western press does not really like to mention this, but the Dinka and Nuer have about the same feelings for each other as the Serbs and Croats during Balkan wars in the 1990s. In South Sudan, this means low-profile ethnically motivated violence.
From the country's final slide into civil war South Sudan was saved by three factors: the presence of a common enemy (Sudan), the relatively fair distribution of posts in the government between representatives of both nationalities, and the fact that even together they barely reach a quarter of the total population of the country. Approximately 75 percent of the population are representatives of other tribes, and in total in South Sudan there are more than 60 different dialects alone.
However, in 2013 the situation began to change rapidly. First, Khartoum and Juba agreed on a cold peace. Of course, there was no friendship between them, and there is no, but they are no longer fighting. Secondly, President Salva Kiir (Dinka) fired Vice President Riek Machar (Nuer) and also purged all governments of representatives of other tribes. This, by the way, among local observers gave rise to the term "dinakratiya". And thirdly, against the background of the expulsion of all non-Dinka from the government, the Nuer began to consolidate around themselves other nationalities, dissatisfied with the dominance of the Dinka. Thus, all the ingredients for starting a civil war were prepared.
And she did not keep herself waiting long. Last week there was a night battle in Juba that President Kiir declared to be a failed coup attempt. In the main conspirators, he predictably recorded Machar and his people, deprived of power by presidential reshuffles in the government. The former vice president managed to escape from the capital, but some of his associates were less fortunate: at least 11 former officials from the Nuer tribe were arrested.
It was even worse for ordinary representatives of this tribe living in the capital. According to eyewitnesses, government forces began to carry out cleansing operations, killing "conspirators" by the hundreds. Thousands of people, fearing for their lives, poured into the refugee camps in the capital.
Meanwhile, in the state of Jongliy (Nuer bastion), similar processes began. Only representatives of the Dinka people have become victims there. Forces loyal to Machar captured main city state - Bor, where ethnic cleansing immediately began. By the way, representatives of the Dinka Nuer people are calculated according to two criteria: pronunciation features (their languages are similar) and high growth. Dinka are considered the tallest people on the planet.
Against the backdrop of the outbreak of the rebellion, other armed groups that have abounded in South Sudan since the war for independence have also become more active. World leaders are urging the parties to refrain from violence and resolve the issues at the negotiating table, but, of course, no one listens to them. Dinka, Nuer and others are completely engaged in mutual destruction. They are distracted only by the shelling of UN helicopters and American convertiplanes, which are taking foreigners out of the country. The situation there can be described in one word: chaos.
The US State Department, having issued a condemnation of the shelling of its tiltrotor, faced an unexpected problem: it is not very clear who exactly to condemn. There are now such a number of armed people who are not subordinate to anyone that it is not possible to understand where, who and for (against) whom, now.
Most likely, South Sudan is waiting for extremely difficult times. Dinka and Nuer cannot defeat each other, and they are not going to stop hostility and put up with each other. Of course, they could also split into two countries, but then the process of division could become irreversible. The case may end with the fact that each of the 60 nationalities inhabiting South Sudan will demand independence. No acceptable way out of the current situation is yet to be seen.
The international community looks on in a kind of daze as the project of creating a peaceful, prosperous, democratic African country turns into its complete opposite. There are already voices in the world calling for the introduction of foreign peacekeepers into South Sudan, before a massacre begins there, as in the neighboring Central African Republic, or even worse - as in Rwanda in 1994. As years of experience show, sub-Saharan African countries are having a hard time keeping out of civil war, being left to their own devices.
An independent state called the Republic of South Sudan appeared on the world map quite recently. He is just over three years old. Officially, the sovereignty of this country was proclaimed on July 9, 2011. At the same time, almost all of the newest South Sudan is the history of a long and bloody struggle for independence. Although hostilities began in South Sudan almost immediately after the declaration of independence of the “greater” Sudan - in the 1950s, nevertheless, only in 2011 South Sudan managed to gain independence - not without the help of the West, primarily the United States, which pursued its goals in the destruction of such a large state, which was under the Arab-Muslim control, which was a single Sudan with its capital in Khartoum.
In principle, North and South Sudan are such different regions that the presence of serious tensions between them was historically determined even without Western influence. In many ways, a united Sudan, before the declaration of independence of South Sudan, resembled Nigeria - the same problems: the Muslim North and the Christian-animistic South, plus its own nuances in the western regions (Darfur and Kordofan). However, in Sudan, confessional differences were exacerbated by both racial and cultural differences. The north of a unified Sudan was inhabited by Arabs and Arabized peoples belonging to the Caucasoid or transitional Ethiopian minor race. But South Sudan is Negroid, mostly Nilotic, professing traditional cults or Christianity (in its local sense).
"Black Country"
Back in the 19th century, South Sudan did not know statehood, at least in the sense that it puts into this concept. modern man. It was a territory inhabited by numerous Nilotic tribes, the most famous of which are the Dinka, Nuer, and Shilluk. The dominant role in a number of regions of South Sudan was played by the Azande tribes, who spoke the languages of the Ubangi branch of the Adamawa-Ubangi subfamily of the Gur-Ubangi family of the Niger-Kordofanian macrofamily of languages. From the north, detachments of Arab slave traders periodically invaded the South Sudanese lands, seizing "living goods", which were in great demand in the slave markets, both in Sudan itself and in Egypt, Asia Minor, and the Arabian Peninsula. However, the raids of the slave traders did not change the thousand-year-old archaic way of life of the Nilotic tribes, since they did not entail political and economic transformations in the South Sudanese lands. The situation changed when the Egyptian ruler Mohammed Ali in 1820-1821, who became interested in the natural resources of the South Sudanese lands, decided to switch to a colonization policy. However, the Egyptians failed to fully master this region and integrate it into Egypt.
The re-colonization of South Sudan began in the 1870s, but it was not successful either. Egyptian troops managed to conquer only the Darfur region - in 1874, after which they were forced to stop, because further there were tropical swamps, which significantly impeded their movement. Thus, South Sudan proper remained virtually uncontrollable. The final development of this vast region took place only during the period of Anglo-Egyptian rule over Sudan in 1898-1955, but even during this period it had its own nuances. Thus, the British, who together with the Egyptians administered Sudan, sought to prevent the Arabization and Islamization of the South Sudanese provinces inhabited by the Negroid population. Arab-Muslim influence in the region was minimized in every possible way, as a result of which the peoples of South Sudan either managed to preserve their original beliefs and culture, or they were Christianized by European preachers. Among a certain part of the Negroid population of South Sudan, English was spreading, but the bulk of the population spoke Nilotic and Adamawa-Ubangi languages, practically not knowing Arabic, which had a de facto monopoly in northern Sudan.
In February 1953, Egypt and Great Britain, in the context of decolonization processes gaining strength in the world, came to an agreement on the gradual transition of Sudan to self-government, and then to the proclamation of political sovereignty. In 1954, the Sudanese parliament was created, and on January 1, 1956, Sudan gained political independence. The British planned that Sudan would become a federal state in which the rights of the Arab population of the northern provinces and the Negroid population of South Sudan would be equally respected. However, the Sudanese Arabs played a key role in the Sudanese independence movement, who promised the British to implement a federal model, but in reality did not plan to provide real political equality to the North and South. As soon as Sudan gained political independence, the Khartoum government abandoned plans to create a federal state, which caused a sharp increase in separatist sentiment in its southern provinces. The Negroid population of the south was not going to put up with the situation of "second class people" in the newly proclaimed Arab Sudan, especially because of the forced Islamization and Arabization carried out by supporters of the Khartoum government.
"Snake Sting" and the First Civil War
The formal reason for the beginning of the armed uprising of the peoples of South Sudan was the massive layoffs of officials and officers who came from the Christianized Nilotic peoples of the South. On August 18, 1955, a civil war broke out in South Sudan. Initially, the southerners, despite their willingness to stand to the last, did not pose a serious danger to the Sudanese government forces, since only less than a third of the rebels had firearms. The rest, like thousands of years ago, fought with bows and arrows and spears. The situation began to change by the early 1960s, when a centralized organization of the South Sudanese resistance was formed, called Anya Nya (Snake Sting). This organization enlisted the support of Israel. Tel Aviv was interested in weakening the large Arab-Muslim state, which was a united Sudan, so it began to help arm the South Sudanese separatists. On the other hand, the southern neighbors of Sudan, the African states, which had certain territorial claims or political scores. As a result, training camps for South Sudanese rebels appeared in Uganda and Ethiopia.
The first civil war of South Sudan against the Khartoum government lasted from 1955 to 1970. and resulted in the death of at least 500,000 civilians. Hundreds of thousands of people became refugees in neighboring states. The Khartoum government has increased its military presence in the south of the country, sending a contingent of troops totaling 12,000 troops there. Khartoum was supplied with weapons by the Soviet Union. However, the South Sudanese rebels managed to control many areas of the countryside in the provinces of South Sudan.
Considering that it was not possible to overcome the resistance of the rebels by armed means, Khartoum entered into negotiations with the leader of the rebels, Joseph Lagu, who in 1971 formed the South Sudan Liberation Movement. Lagu insisted on the creation of a federal state in which each part would have its own government and armed forces. Naturally, the Arab elite of Northern Sudan was not going to agree to these demands, but in the end, the peacekeeping efforts of the Emperor of Ethiopia, Haile Selassie, who acted as a mediator in the negotiation process, led to the Addis Ababa agreement being concluded. In accordance with the agreement, the three southern provinces received autonomous status and, moreover, a 12,000-strong army was created with a mixed officer corps of northerners and southerners. English language received regional status in the southern provinces. On March 27, 1972, an armistice agreement was signed. The Khartoum government granted amnesty to the rebels and set up a commission to control the return of refugees to the country.
Islamization and the beginning of the second civil war
However, the relative peace in South Sudan did not last long after the conclusion of the Addis Ababa agreement. There were several reasons for the new aggravation of the situation. First, significant oil deposits have been discovered in South Sudan. Naturally, the Khartoum government could not miss the chance to get South Sudanese oil, but control over the oil fields required strengthening the position of the central government in the South. The central government also could not ignore the oil fields of South Sudan, since it was in serious need of replenishing its financial resources. The second point was the strengthening of the political influence of Islamic fundamentalists on the Khartoum leadership. Islamic organizations had close ties with the traditional monarchies of the Arab East, in addition, they had a serious influence on the Arab population of the country. The existence of a Christian and, moreover, a "pagan" enclave in South Sudan was an extremely annoying factor for Islamic radicals. Moreover, they were already pushing through the idea of creating an Islamic state in Sudan, living according to Sharia law.
During the period of the events described, Sudan was headed by President Jafar Mohammed Nimeiri (1930-2009). A professional military man, 39-year-old Nimeiri, back in 1969, overthrew the then Sudanese government of Ismail al-Azhari and proclaimed himself chairman of the Revolutionary Council. Initially, he was guided by the Soviet Union and relied on the support of the Sudanese communists. By the way, the Sudanese Communist Party was one of the most powerful on the African continent, Nimeiri introduced its representatives to the Khartoum government, proclaiming a course towards the socialist path of development and anti-imperialist resistance. Thanks to cooperation with the communists, Nimeiri could count on military assistance from Soviet Union, which he successfully used, including in the conflict with South Sudan.
However, by the end of the 1970s, the growing influence of Islamist forces in Sudanese society forced Nimeiri to radically change his political priorities. In 1983, he declared Sudan a Sharia state. Representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood organization entered the government, and the construction of mosques began everywhere. Sharia laws were introduced throughout the country, including in the South, where the Muslim population was in an absolute minority. In response to the Islamization of Sudan, the activation of local separatists began in the southern provinces. They accused Nimeiri's Khartoum government of violating the Addis Ababa agreement. In 1983, the creation of the Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA) was announced. It is significant that the SPLA advocated the unity of the Sudanese state and accused the Nimeiri government of actions that could lead to the disintegration of the country along national and confessional lines.
Rebels by John Garang
The Sudanese People's Liberation Army was led by Colonel John Garang de Mabior (1945-2005). A native of the Nilotic Dinka people, from the age of 17 he took part in the guerrilla movement in South Sudan. As one of the most capable young men, he was sent to study in Tanzania, and then in the USA.
After receiving a bachelor's degree in economics from the United States and completing his studies in agricultural economics in Tanzania, Garang returned to his homeland and rejoined the guerrilla resistance. The conclusion of the Addis Ababa agreement prompted him, like many other partisans, to serve in the Sudanese armed forces, where, in accordance with the agreement, the rebel detachments of the South Sudanese peoples were integrated. Garang, as an educated and active person, received captain's shoulder straps and continued to serve in the armed forces of Sudan, where he rose to the rank of colonel in 11 years. Recent times he served in the headquarters of the ground forces, from where he was sent to the south of Sudan. There he was caught by the news of the introduction of Sharia law in Sudan. Then Garang led a whole battalion of the Sudanese armed forces, staffed by southerners, to the territory of neighboring Ethiopia, where other southerners who had deserted from the Sudanese army soon arrived.
The units under the command of John Garang operated from the territory of Ethiopia, but soon they managed to take control of large areas of the provinces of South Sudan. This time, the resistance to the Khartoum government was more successful, since there were many professional military men in the ranks of the rebels who managed to get military education and experience in commanding army units over the years of peace.
Meanwhile, in 1985, another military coup took place in Sudan itself. While President Nimeiri was visiting the United States of America, Colonel General Abdel Rahman Swar al-Dagab (born 1934), who served as Chief of the General Staff of the armed forces, staged a military coup and seized power in the country. It happened on April 6, 1985. The first decision of the rebels was the abolition of the 1983 constitution, which established Sharia law. The ruling Sudanese Socialist Union party was dissolved, former President Nimeiri went into exile, and General Swar al-Dagab himself handed over power to the government of Sadiq al-Mahdi in 1986. The latter began negotiations with the South Sudanese rebels, seeking to conclude a peace agreement and prevent further bloodshed. In 1988, the South Sudanese rebels agreed with the Khartoum government on a project for a peaceful settlement of the situation in the country, which included the abolition of the state of emergency and Sharia law. However, already in November 1988, Prime Minister al-Mahdi refused to sign this plan, which led to the strengthening of the position of Islamic fundamentalists in the Khartoum government. Nevertheless, in February 1989 the prime minister, under pressure from the military, accepted the peace plan. It seemed that nothing further stops the Khartoum government from fulfilling the agreements and peace in southern Sudan can be restored.
However, instead of appeasing the southern provinces, a sharp aggravation of the situation followed. Its cause was a new military coup that took place in Sudan. On June 30, 1989, Brigadier General Omar al-Bashir, a professional military paratrooper who had previously commanded a parachute brigade in Khartoum, seized power in the country, dissolved the government and banned political parties. Omar al-Bashir was on conservative positions and sympathized with Islamic fundamentalists. In many ways, it was he who stood at the origins of the further escalation of the conflict in the South of Sudan, which led to the collapse of the unified Sudanese state.
The results of al-Bashir's activities were the establishment of a dictatorial regime in the country, the prohibition of political parties and trade union organizations, and the return to Sharia law. In March 1991, the country's penal code was updated to include medieval punishments such as forced amputation of hands for certain crimes, stoning and crucifixion. Following the introduction of a new criminal code, Omar al-Bashir began to update the judiciary in southern Sudan, replacing Christian judges with Muslim judges there. In fact, this meant that Sharia law would be applied against the non-Muslim population of the southern provinces. In the northern provinces of the country, the Sharia police began to carry out repressions against people from the South who did not comply with the norms of Sharia law.
The active phase of hostilities resumed in the southern provinces of Sudan. The rebels of the Sudan People's Liberation Army took control of part of the provinces of Bahr el-Ghazal, Upper Nile, Blue Nile, Darfur and Kordofan. However, in July 1992, Khartoum troops, better armed and trained, managed to take control of the headquarters of the South Sudanese rebels in Torit in a swift offensive. Repressions began against the civilian population of the southern provinces, which included the deportation of tens of thousands of women and children into slavery in the north of the country. According to international organizations, up to 200,000 people were captured and enslaved by North Sudanese troops and non-governmental Arab groups. Thus, at the end of the twentieth century, everything returned to the situation of a hundred years ago - the raids of Arab slave traders on Negro villages.
At the same time, the Khartoum government began to disorganize the South Sudanese resistance by sowing internal hostility based on tribal contradictions. As you know, John Garang, who led the People's Liberation Army, came from the Dinka people, one of the largest Nilotic peoples in South Sudan. The Sudanese intelligence services began to sow ethnic discord in the ranks of the rebels, convincing representatives of other nationalities that, if they won, Garang would establish a dictatorship of the Dinka people, which would carry out genocide against other ethnic groups in the region.
As a result, there was an attempt to overthrow Garang, which ended in the separation in September 1992 of the group led by William Bani, and in February 1993 - the group led by Cherubino Boli. It seemed that the government of Khartoum was about to be able to crack down on the rebel movement in the south of the country, sowing discord among the rebel groups and, at the same time, intensifying repression against the non-Muslim population of the southern provinces. However, everything was spoiled by the excessive foreign policy independence of the Khartoum government.
Omar al-Bashir, sympathetic to the Islamists, supported Saddam Hussein during Operation Desert Storm, which led to the final deterioration of Sudan's relations with the United States of America. After that, many African countries began to turn away from Sudan as a "rogue country". Ethiopia, Eritrea, Uganda and Kenya have shown their support for the rebels, with the former three countries stepping up their military assistance to the rebel groups. In 1995, the opposition political forces of Northern Sudan united with the rebels of South Sudan. The so-called "National Democratic Alliance" included the Sudan People's Liberation Army, the Sudan Democratic Union and a number of other political organizations.
All this led to the fact that in 1997 the Khartoum government signed an agreement with part of the rebel groups on reconciliation. Omar al-Bashir had no choice but to recognize the cultural and political autonomy of South Sudan. In 1999, Omar al-Bashir himself made concessions and offered John Garang cultural autonomy within Sudan, but the rebel leader was unstoppable. Active hostilities continued until 2004, although ceasefire negotiations between the opposing factions continued at the same time. Finally, on January 9, 2005, another peace agreement was signed in Nairobi, the capital of Kenya. On behalf of the rebels, it was signed by John Garang, on behalf of the Khartoum government - by Vice-President of Sudan Ali Osman Mahammad Taha. In accordance with the terms of this agreement, it was decided: to cancel Sharia law in the south of the country, to cease fire from both sides, to demobilize a significant part of the armed formations, to establish an even distribution of income from the exploitation of oil fields in the southern provinces of the country. South Sudan was granted autonomy for six years, after which the population of the region was given the right to hold a referendum, which would raise the question of the independence of South Sudan as a separate state. The commander of the Sudanese People's Liberation Army, John Garang, became the Vice President of Sudan.
By the time the peace agreements were concluded, according to international organizations, up to two million people had died in hostilities, during repressions and ethnic cleansing. Approximately four million people have left South Sudan, becoming internal and external refugees. Naturally, the consequences of the war were terrible for the Sudanese economy and the social infrastructure of South Sudan. However, on July 30, 2005, John Garang, returning by helicopter from a meeting with Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, died in a plane crash.
He was replaced by Salva Kiir (born 1951) - Garang's deputy in charge of the military wing of the Sudanese People's Liberation Army, known for his more radical positions on the issue of granting political independence to South Sudan. As you know, Garanga was also happy with the model of keeping the southern provinces as part of a unified Sudan, in the absence of interference in their affairs by the Islamist Arab elite of Khartoum. However, Salwa Kiir was much more determined and insisted on the complete political independence of South Sudan. Actually, after the crash of the helicopter, he had no other obstacles. Replacing the deceased Garang as vice-president of Sudan, Salva Kiir set a course for the further proclamation of the political independence of South Sudan.
Political independence did not bring peace
On January 8, 2008, North Sudanese troops were withdrawn from the territory of South Sudan, and on January 9-15, 2011, a referendum was held, in which 98.8% of the participating citizens spoke in favor of granting political independence to South Sudan, which was proclaimed on July 9, 2011. Salwa Kiir became the first president of the sovereign Republic of South Sudan.
However, the declaration of political independence does not mean the final solution of all conflict situations in this region. First, extremely tense relations remain between Northern Sudan and South Sudan. They resulted in several armed clashes between the two states. Moreover, the first of them began in May 2011, that is, a month before the official declaration of independence of South Sudan. It was a conflict in South Kordofan - a province that is now part of Sudan (North Sudan), but is largely populated by representatives African peoples, related to the inhabitants of South Sudan and maintaining historical and cultural ties with them, including during the long struggle for the independence of the South Sudanese state.
The most serious contradictions with the Khartoum government were the inhabitants of the Nuba mountains - the so-called "mountain Nubians", or Nuba. The millionth Nuba people speak the Nubian language, one of two branches of the Tama-Nubian family of languages, traditionally included in the Eastern Sudanese superfamily of the Nilo-Saharan macrofamily. Despite the fact that the Nuba formally profess Islam, they retain very strong vestiges of traditional beliefs, due to their living in the mountains and relatively late Islamization. Naturally, on this basis, they have tense relations with Islamic radicals from the Arab environment of Northern Sudan.
On June 6, 2011, hostilities broke out, the cause of which was formally the conflict situation around the withdrawal of South Sudanese units from the city of Abyei. As a result of the fighting, at least 704 South Sudanese soldiers died, 140,000 civilians became refugees. Many residential buildings, social and economic infrastructure facilities were destroyed. At present, the territory where the conflict took place remains part of Northern Sudan, which does not exclude the possibility of its further repetition.
On March 26, 2012, another armed conflict broke out between Sudan and South Sudan - over the border town of Heglig and surrounding areas, many of which are rich natural resources. The Sudanese People's Liberation Army and the Sudanese Armed Forces participated in the conflict. On April 10, 2012, South Sudan captured the city of Heglig, in response, the Khartoum government announced general mobilization and on April 22, 2012, secured the withdrawal of South Sudanese units from Heglig. This conflict contributed to Khartoum officially designating South Sudan as an enemy state. At the same time, neighboring Uganda has officially and once again confirmed that it will support South Sudan.
Meanwhile, not everything is calm on the territory of South Sudan itself. Given that this state is inhabited by representatives of a number of nationalities who claim a primary role in the country, or are offended that other ethnic groups are in power, it is easy to predict that South Sudan almost immediately after the declaration of independence became the scene of internecine struggle of opposing ethnic armed groups. The most serious confrontation unfolded in 2013-2014. between the Nuer and Dinka peoples - one of the most numerous Nilotic ethnic groups. On December 16, 2013, an attempted military coup was thwarted in the country, which, according to President Salva Kiir, was attempted by supporters of former Vice President Riek Machar. Riek Machar (born 1953) - also a veteran partisan movement, fought first as part of the Sudan People's Liberation Army, and then entered into separate agreements with the Khartoum government and led the pro-Khartoum South Sudan Defense Forces, and then the Sudan People's Defense Forces / Democratic Front. Then Machar again became a supporter of Garang and served as vice president in South Sudan. Machar belongs to the Nuer people and is considered by the representatives of the latter as a spokesman for their interests, as opposed to Dinka Salva Kiir.
The coup attempt by Machar's supporters marked the beginning of a new bloody civil war in South Sudan - this time between the Dinka and Nuer peoples. According to international organizations, only in the period from the end of December 2013 to February 2014, 863 thousand civilians in South Sudan became refugees, at least 3.7 million people are in dire need of food. All the efforts of international mediators to ensure the conduct of the negotiation process between the opponents end in failure, since there are always uncontrolled groups that continue to further escalate violence.
North Sudanese Presidents Omar Al-Bashir (left) and South Sudanese Presidents Salwa Kiir (right) at a South Sudanese independence ceremony in July 2011.
Photo courtesy of www.un.org
Recently on political map The world has a new state - South Sudan. Diplomats and journalists different countries cheerfully report that the long-term civil war between north and south is finally over and peace and tranquility are now established in northeast Africa. But is it really so?
THE ORIGINS OF THE WAR ARE IN EUROPE
On July 9, 2011, the Republic of South Sudan (RSS) officially declared its independence. Before that, on January 9–15, 2011, a referendum was held in the newly minted country, in which 99% of the population of the southern part of the then united state voted for separation from Khartoum - the capital of now Northern Sudan, or simply Sudan.
The independence of South Sudan should complete transition period under the Comprehensive Peace Treaty signed in 2005 between the government of Sudan and the southern rebels, the so-called Sudanese People's Liberation Movement. This peace treaty ended the second civil war that lasted 22 years in Sudan, from 1983 to 2005. The cause of the war was primarily the policy of Islamization launched by the government of Sudan in 1983. The result is the war of the Arabs of Sudan against the peoples of the south who predominantly profess Christianity or who have preserved local cults. The long-term civil war was accompanied by massacres, famine and epidemic diseases. It was preceded by the first civil war in 1955–1972.
In fact, the causes of the conflict in the Sudan run much deeper and are to be found in the long-suffering country's colonial past. At the Berlin Conference in 1884, the European powers imposed such borders on their African colonies that representatives of many ethnic groups that had nothing in common with each other were actually mixed with each other or, on the contrary, were separated. In 1956, Sudan officially became an independent state. But this did not save him from problems - a protracted civil war between north and south immediately began. From the very beginning of existence independent Sudan the life of this state is complicated by territorial disputes with neighbors, ethnic and confessional contradictions within the country.
REPETITION OF THE UKRAINIAN SCENARIO
A month after the recognition of the independence of South Sudan, it became clear that the difficulties in relations between the north and the south did not end. Looks like they're just getting started. It's all about oil. The authorities of Khartoum are seriously concerned about the loss of deposits, which are located on the territory of ten states of South Sudan. They have a significant trump card: oil produced in the south is transported through oil pipelines passing through the northern part of Sudan to Port Sudan, located on the Red Sea. Therefore, the northern Sudanese authorities claim a significant share in the oil profits of the south. In addition, the northerners do not want to lose the Abyei region, located at the junction of the south and north, where more than a quarter of Sudan's oil is produced. “Negotiations on this issue are ongoing, but if the representatives of the Dinka tribe unilaterally declare that Abyei belongs to the south, a war could start,” Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir turns to threats. The issue of ownership of the Abyei region and its deposits was to be decided in a separate referendum, but its holding was postponed.
Sudan produces 500 thousand barrels of oil daily, with about 75% of oil production coming from fields in the south. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has already said that he will not allow South Sudan, after its secession, to have a monopoly on oil revenues.
The South will either continue to share the oil produced with the North, or will pay taxes and duties for the use of an oil pipeline passing through the territory of the North - only in this way, according to the President of Sudan, can the issue of distribution of oil revenues be resolved after the country is divided into two states. In case of non-payment of duties by the south, official Khartoum is ready to block the oil pipe. At the same time, after the secession of the south in July this year, South Sudan flatly refuses the proposal of the northern authorities to share oil revenues for several years.
In general, the situation in Sudanese relations is deteriorating for several reasons, not only because of the division of oil revenues - the authorities of the north and south have not yet been able to agree on many important issues, in particular, on the definition of borders, ownership of disputed border areas.
The intention of Omar al-Bashir to continue the Islamization of Sudan does not add optimism either. According to the Sudanese President, 98% of the northerners of Sudan are Muslim, and therefore they are ready to build a strong and monolithic Islamic state in Africa. Concerned about Islamization, Christian Africans living in northern Sudan flee to South Sudan. On the eve of the January referendum on the secession of South Sudan, the United Nations refugee agency reported that more than 120,000 people had migrated from the north to the south of the country in recent months. Their number is likely to increase in the coming years.
OIL PILLAGE
Northern Sudan today resembles a wounded beast that has been deprived of its last prey. With no oil left, Omar al-Bashir seems ready to take even the most extreme measures in pursuit of oil resources. Therefore, it can now pose a serious danger in the region. Already after the declaration of independence of South Sudan, al-Bashir said in an interview with the BBC that he was ready to use force to seize the disputed region of Abyei.
Meanwhile, skirmishes are constantly taking place in this area between detachments of the north and south. Recall that the armed conflict over the Abyei region has been going on since the end of May 2011. The army of Northern Sudan has captured this disputed area with a fight and is still there. Northerners and southerners blame each other for unleashing the conflict.
On the eve of the declaration of independence by South Sudan, a very important event took place, which was practically not covered in the media. The army of Northern Sudan captured the oil-bearing region of Kufra in southern Libya, and also took control of the city of Jauf and the highway to the center of the Sarir and Misla oil fields.
The Sudanese military has taken control of Libya's southernmost oil field and now controls the southeast of the North African country. As British journalists write, "it is clear that the Sudanese will now receive a share in the newly resurgent Libyan oil market." It is genuinely surprising why the UN did not react to this situation in any way. It is clear that there has been a violation state border followed by military occupation of part of an independent state.
It is logical to assume that NATO was at least aware of the intentions of the Sudanese army, especially since there is a considerable distance from the Sudanese border to Kufra - 800 km. It is quite possible that an unspoken agreement was concluded between the government of Sudan and NATO: the Western coalition provides Khartoum with southern oil fields in southern Libya in exchange for the peaceful and quiet recognition of South Sudan, to which most of the oil-bearing regions of the once unified state depart.
WHO WILL FIGHT FOR SUDAN?
According to some experts, Sudan has oil reserves comparable in volume to reserves Saudi Arabia, as well as huge reserves of natural gas, uranium and copper. It would be short-sighted to consider the recognition of the independence of South Sudan only in the context of the contradictions between Khartoum and Juba in the oil sector, ignoring the "Chinese factor" and the American-Chinese rivalry in Africa. Since 1999, according to official figures alone, China has invested $15 billion in the Sudanese economy. China National Petroleum Corporation is by far the largest Sudanese foreign investor, having invested $5 billion in the development of several oil fields in southern Sudan.
The emergence of an independent Republic of South Sudan in practice means that the Celestial Empire will now have to negotiate with the administration of Juba, not Khartoum, about its oil projects. And if you remember that only Western democracies actively supported the southerners in their desire to secede from Khartoum, while China was interested in the unity of Sudan due to established contacts with the administration of Omar al-Bashir, then Beijing will now have a difficult time.
It is significant that the United States of America was the first of the world powers to recognize the new state, followed by China. Another curious fact: the government of South Sudan has the closest and most friendly relations with Uganda, which is the main strategic partner of the RUS in the joint struggle against the Ugandan nationalist para-Christian rebel group Lord's Resistance Army. Meanwhile, today Uganda is the main conductor of Western interests on the African continent. "Tell me who your friend is and I'll tell you who you are" - this ancient wisdom is quite applicable to South Sudan. There is no doubt that the pro-American orientation of South Sudan will soon manifest itself. Considering the desire of the United States to squeeze out China, which has settled there, from Africa, one can understand in what direction the processes in northeast Africa will develop.
In the collection of documents published by Stephen Elliot "Scenarios for further US invasions. Pentagon White Papers lists Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, North Korea, Syria, and Sudan as likely targets for a US invasion. The turbulent situation in Sudan's western province of Darfur, which also has large oil reserves, gives the Americans a pretext for "humanitarian intervention."
According to the US military, after years of defiance of Khartoum and the failure of humanitarian missions, only military intervention can resolve the crisis in Sudan, since all means of international diplomacy regarding Bashir have been exhausted. The reason for the intervention, according to these documents, has already been found: the joint resolution of the UN and the African Union on the United Peacekeeping Contingent in Darfur (UNAMID) contains a clear program for humanitarian intervention in Darfur. The US may intervene on the grounds that it is implementing an already existing resolution, the US military says.
In February 2006, the US Senate passed a resolution demanding the deployment of NATO troops and UN peacekeeping forces to Darfur. A month later, President George W. Bush called for a reinforced NATO presence in Darfur. China is also showing great interest in this region. So the "battle for Darfur" is yet to come.
The North Atlantic Alliance already has experience in conducting military operations in Africa: in November 1997, NATO conducted maneuvers on German territory under the code name "Allied Efforts". These exercises simulated the following situation: there is a war between two African countries on one of the islands of Southeast Africa, and NATO's mission is to separate the armies of these countries on behalf of the UN.
In connection with the current situation in the Middle East and North Africa, the words of the former Supreme Commander of the NATO Armed Forces in Europe, American general Wesley Clark, which he said in 2007 on Voice of America: “A few weeks later I ask the general from the US Joint Chiefs of Staff: So what did they decide? Are we advancing on Iraq or not? And he replies: “Iraq would be fine. Look at what they let me down today. Over the next five years, we will dismantle seven countries. We start with Iraq. Then we have plans for Syria and Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan. And we end up in Iran.” So, it is quite possible that Sudan is next in line. It remains only to wait a little.
They say that the most terrible quarrels are quarrels between close people, relatives. Some of the most difficult and bloody wars are civil ones.
A series of civil wars between Catholics and Protestants went on for 36 years
A series of civil wars between Catholics and Protestants went on from 1562 to 1598. The Huguenots were supported by the Bourbons, the Catholics by Catherine de Medici and the Guise party. It began with an attack on the Huguenots in Champagne on March 1, 1562, organized by the Duke of Guise. In response, the Prince de Conde took the city of Orleans, which became a stronghold of the Huguenot movement. The Queen of Great Britain supported the Protestants, while the King of Spain and the Pope of Rome supported the Catholic forces.
The first peace agreement was concluded after the death of the leaders of both warring groups, the Peace of Amboise was signed, then reinforced by the Edict of Saint-Germain, which guaranteed freedom of religion in certain districts. This conflict, however, did not solve it, but transferred it to the category of frozen ones. In the future, playing with the terms of this edict led to the resumption of active operations, and the poor state of the royal treasury to their attenuation. The Peace of Saint-Germain, signed in favor of the Huguenots, was replaced by a terrible massacre of Protestants in Paris and other French cities - Bartholomew's Night.
The leader of the Huguenots, Henry of Navarre, suddenly became the king of France by converting to Catholicism (he is credited with the famous phrase "Paris is worth a mass"). It was this king, with a very extravagant reputation, who managed to unite the state and end the era of terrible religious wars.
Russian Civil War 1917−1922
The result of the Civil War was the flight of the intellectual elite from Russia
The beginning of the Civil War is considered the resettlement of the first groups of opponents of the barely established Bolshevik government to the south of Russia, where "white" detachments began to form from former officer ranks and volunteers who did not recognize the results of the Bolshevik revolution (or the Bolshevik coup). The anti-Bolshevik forces included, of course, a variety of people - from republicans to monarchists, from obsessed madmen to fighters for justice. They oppressed the Bolsheviks from all sides - from the south, and from the west, and from Arkhangelsk and, of course, from Siberia, where Admiral Kolchak settled, who became one of the brightest symbols of the white movement and white dictatorship. At the first stage, taking into account the support of foreign forces and even direct military intervention, the Whites had some success. The Bolshevik leaders even thought about evacuating to India, but were able to turn the tide of the struggle in their favor.
The beginning of the 1920s was already the retreat and final flight of the Whites, the cruelest Bolshevik terror and the terrible crimes of anti-Bolshevik outcasts like von Ungern. The result of the Civil War was the flight from Russia of a significant part of the intellectual elite, capital. For many - with the hope of a speedy return, which in fact never took place. Those who managed to settle in emigration, with rare exceptions, remained abroad, giving their descendants a new homeland.
Chinese Civil War 1927-1950
The confrontation between the troops of the Kuomintang and the communists went on for almost 25 years
The confrontation between the Kuomintang troops and the communist forces stubbornly went on for almost 25 years - from 1927 to 1950. The beginning is the "Northern March" of Chiang Kai-shek, a nationalist leader who was going to subjugate the northern territories controlled by the Beiyang militarists. This is a group based on the combat-ready units of the army of the Qing Empire, but it was a rather scattered force, quickly losing ground to the Kuomintang. A new round of civil confrontation arose because of the conflict between the Kuomintang and the Communists. This struggle hardened as a result of the struggle for power, in April 1927, the "Shanghai massacre" took place, the suppression of communist uprisings in Shanghai. During an even more brutal war with Japan, internal strife subsided, but neither Chiang Kai-shek nor Mao Zedong forgot about the struggle, and after the end of World War II, the Civil War in China resumed. The nationalists were supported by the Americans, the communists, which is not surprising, by the USSR.
By 1949, Chiang Kai-shek's front had actually collapsed, he himself made an official proposal for peace negotiations. The conditions put forward by the communists did not find a response, the fighting continued, and the Kuomintang army was divided.
On October 1, 1949, the People's Republic of China was proclaimed, the communist troops gradually subjugated one region after another. One of the last to join was Tibet, the question of independence of which is periodically raised even today.
Civil War in Guatemala 1960-1996
Among those who joined the rebels in Guatemala were Maya Indians
The beginning of the confrontation was coup d'état, during which the country's president, Jacobo Arbens, was removed. The performance of the military, however, was quickly suppressed, but a significant part of them left the country, starting preparations for the partisan movement. It was she who was to play the main role in this long war. Maya Indians were among those who joined the rebels, this led to a severe reaction against Indian villages in general, they even talk about ethnic cleansing of the Maya.
In 1980, there were already four fronts of the civil war, their line passed both in the west and east of the country, and in the north and south. The rebel groups soon took shape in the Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unity, their struggle was supported by the Cubans, and the Guatemalan army fought mercilessly with them.
In 1987, the presidents of other Central American states also tried to take part in resolving the conflict, through them a dialogue was carried out and the demands of the belligerents were presented. The Catholic Church, which contributed to the formation of the National Reconciliation Commission, also received serious influence in the negotiations.
In 1996, the "Treaty on a firm and lasting peace" was concluded. According to some reports, the war claimed the lives of 200 thousand people, most of whom are Mayan Indians. About 150 thousand are missing.
Civil war in Sudan 1955-1972, 1983-2005
The first and second wars in Sudan happened 11 years apart
The first and second wars in Sudan happened with a break of 11 years. Both broke out because of the conflict between the Christians of the south and the Muslims of the north. One part of the country in the past was controlled by Great Britain, the other - by Egypt. In 1956, Sudan gained independence, state institutions were located in the northern part, which created a serious imbalance of influence within the new state. The promises of a federal structure made by the Arabs in the government of Khartoum were not realized, the Christians of the south rebelled against the Muslims, and cruel punitive actions only kindled the fire of the Civil War. An endless succession of new governments was not able to cope with ethnic tensions and economic problems, the rebels of South Sudan captured the villages, but did not have sufficient forces for the normal control of their territories.
As a result of the Addis Ababa Agreement of 1972, the South recognized the autonomy and army of the country, which included both Muslims and Christians, in approximately equal proportions. The next round lasted from 1983 to 2005 and was much more brutal towards civilians. According to international organizations, about 2 million people became victims. In 2002, the process of preparing a peace agreement between representatives of the Sudan Liberation Army (South) and the Government of Sudan began. He assumed 6 years of autonomy and a subsequent referendum on the independence of South Sudan. On July 9, 2011, the sovereignty of South Sudan was proclaimed.
TASS-DOSIER /Alexander Panov/. In accordance with its results, on July 9, 2011, the independence of the Republic of South Sudan was proclaimed, which became the 54th and youngest state in Africa. In turn, the loss of the southern territories deprived the Republic of Sudan of the status of the largest country in the continent by area.
colonial period
The territory of South Sudan, inhabited by cattle-breeding (Dinka, Nuer, Shilluk, etc.) and agricultural (Bantu peoples) peoples, was included in Sudan in 1899, over which a regime of joint Anglo-Egyptian control (condominium) was established. Unlike the population of the North of Sudan, which was made up of Arabs and Africans professing Islam, the peoples of the South adhered to traditional African beliefs.
In 1924, the British authorities effectively monopolized control over the Sudan. In order to prevent the spread of Arab and Islamic influence from the northern Sudanese to the peoples of the South, rules were introduced that maximally limited movement between the northern part and the three southern provinces. The north and south of Sudan were subject to separate administrations. In the southern provinces, the British actively supported Christian missions, encouraging the Christianization of the local population.
South Sudan as part of independent Sudan
January 1, 1956 Sudan was proclaimed an independent state with its capital in Khartoum. In 1958, a military coup took place, as a result of which a military regime was established in the country, headed by Marshal Abboud.
The Sudanese authorities launched repressions against the opposition, and they tried to solve the problem of separatism provoked by the British policy in the South through forced Islamization. Such steps led to an increase in tension and the beginning of armed clashes between the military-political organizations of the southerners and detachments of the Sudanese army. The victims of the first civil war (1955-1972) were about half a million Sudanese on both sides.
The government of Jafar Nimeiri, who came to power during another military coup in 1969, agreed to grant regional autonomy to the southern provinces. On February 26, 1972, in the capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, an agreement was signed between the government of Sudan and the leaders of the southerners, according to which the South of Sudan received an autonomous status as part of a single state. All rebels who agreed to cease hostilities were granted an amnesty.
After large oil reserves were discovered in the South of Sudan in 1978 (Upper Nile region), a fragile peace in southern region once again under threat. In May 1983, the introduction of Islamic law in Sudan, which extended to the southern provinces, as well as plans for an administrative reform that weakened regional autonomy, provoked a resumption of armed confrontation that escalated into a second civil war (1983-2005).
Created in the same 1983, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) was headed by Colonel John Garang of the Sudanese Army. A native of the southern part of the country, he nonetheless opposed the secession of the South and declared that he was fighting for the liberation of the entire Sudan, which would eliminate discrimination based on race, religion or ethnicity. However, his slogan "mix races and cultures" on the model of the American "melting pot" did not find sufficient support in the north of the country and became one of the factors in the growth of Arab nationalism and Islamic fundamentalism. fighting soon covered the entire South of the country and the northern regions adjacent to it. The war went on for over 20 years. More than 2 million people became its victims. About 4 million became internally displaced persons and another 600 thousand people became refugees in neighboring countries.
On the way to independence
The process of resolving the conflict in the South of Sudan took place with the active mediation of representatives of the international community represented by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the African Union, the United Nations, the United States, and the European Union.
On January 9, 2005, representatives of the government and the rebels signed in Nairobi (Kenya) an agreement on a peaceful settlement in southern Sudan, according to which a six-year transition period was established. On July 9, 2005, an interim constitution came into effect. SPLM leader John Garang became vice president of Sudan and head of government of autonomous South Sudan. After the death of Garang in a plane crash on July 30, 2005, Salvatore Kiir Mayardit (Salva Kiir) took his place. Unlike his predecessor, he advocated the secession of South Sudan from Sudan. On April 11-15, 2010, Salva Kiir was elected President of the Autonomous Region of South Sudan with almost 93% of the vote.
The issue of the future status of the region, in accordance with the terms of the peace agreements, was submitted to a referendum held on the territory of the autonomy on January 9-15, 2011. 98.83% of its participants (3 million 792 thousand 518 of its inhabitants) voted for the independence of South Sudan. The turnout was 97.6% of the number of registered voters. The Sudanese authorities officially recognized the results of the referendum and agreed to the granting of independence to South Sudan. The capital of the new state was the city of Juba.
After the declaration of independence
However, the conflict between Khartoum and Juba was not settled either after the referendum or after the declaration of independence of South Sudan on July 9, 2011. The question of ownership of the disputed Abyei region, located in the border zone on the territory of the Sudanese state of South Kordofan, rich in oil reserves, remains unresolved. . The authorities of South Sudan continue to insist on holding a referendum in Abyei on the status of the area and its incorporation into their country. On June 20, 2011, an agreement was signed on the creation of a demilitarized zone in the Abyei region and the deployment of a peacekeeping contingent there under the UN flag.
