MOSCOW, May 15 - RIA Novosti. Volcanoes in the Phlegrean fields near Naples may erupt in the near future, this is indicated by the accumulation of tectonic stress and deformation of rocks in the mouth of the former supervolcano, according to an article published in the journal Nature Communications.
“Having followed the formation of cracks and rock shifts in the Phlegrean fields, we believe that now this volcano has reached a critical phase and a further increase in activity will make the likelihood of an eruption sufficiently large. It is extremely important that local authorities are prepared for such a course of events,” said Christopher Kilburn (Christopher Kilburn) from University College London.
During the existence human civilization seven major eruptions occurred, one of which, the explosion of Mount Tambora in 1815, killed 71 thousand people and led to a noticeable cooling of the climate and crop failure and famine in different countries all over the earth.
Geologists have solved the mystery of the "wandering" vents of the volcano EtnaThe vent of the Etna volcano in Italy wanders along its slopes in an unusual way and rarely stays in one place for the reason that the matter on one of its slopes is unstable in nature and gradually "falls" underground.Another major eruption, the records of which were the first in the history of mankind, occurred in 1538 in the vicinity of Naples, on the so-called Phlegrean fields. They represent the mouth of a large supervolcano, the eruptions of which in the past were not inferior in strength to Tambora and could, as geologists today believe, cause the extinction of Neanderthals in Europe about 50 thousand years ago.
Kilburn and his colleagues have been monitoring the state of the Phlegraean fields for several years, the activity of which has increased markedly in recent times. As last year's measurements showed, the height of some regions of the volcano is growing at a rate of about three centimeters per month, which indicates the formation of a magma chamber under the Phlegraean fields. In December 2016, the Italian authorities seriously thought about the evacuation of nearby settlements due to excessively high activity of the volcano.
British and Italian geologists say that such fears were well founded. They calculated the rate of accumulation of magma in the depths of the Phlegrean fields in the last half of the 20th century and found out where the source of seismic shocks and deformations is located.
As the scientists explain, many geological and tectonic processes can be thought of as a basin with an incoming and outgoing pipe. The role of the first is played by all sources of seismic stress, including lava flows rising from the depths of the Earth, and the second is weak tremors, mini-eruptions and other ways of "safe" getting rid of this energy. If the tension is not released quickly enough, then it gradually accumulates, which in the future can lead to a powerful eruption or earthquake.
In the Naples area, measurements by Kilburn and his colleagues show that this tension has been building up since the early 1950s, and by now enough magma has accumulated under the Phlegraean Fields to create a massive eruption if it breaks through.
According to geologists, in the past few months, lava has risen to a mark of three kilometers from the surface of the Earth. How quickly it will cover this distance and whether it will stop the movement this time, scientists do not yet know, but the probability of an eruption today is the highest in the last few hundred years. Geologists advise the authorities of Naples to "be prepared" for more serious consequences than a series of powerful aftershocks that usually accompanied the growth of the Phlegrean fields in the past.
Science has noticed this danger lurking under the feet of mankind only recently - and more than one volcanologist has not managed to become an eyewitness to its awakening. But they pray to their gods that this does not happen.
Bomb near Naples
The study of the earth's interior using seismic tomography (Seismic tomography) showed that the area of Naples rests on a huge magma basin of 400 square meters. km. According to volcanologists, this is a real time bomb, which may someday explode. However, it is not only the next eruption of Vesuvius that should be feared.The Phlegrean Fields are by no means harmless monuments of the planet's geological past. A more detailed study of them showed that this area covered with several dozen craters is the remains of the caldera of an ancient giant volcano, part of which is flooded by the waters of the Pozzuoli Bay. Of course, there are examples of other equally impressive huge calderas in the world. For example, the island of Thira, whose “bagel” is all that remains after the explosion in the 15th century BC. volcano Santorini. But exploration of the volcanic region of Naples continues, and who knows what discoveries they will bring.
What if the Phlegrean Fields and Vesuvius are not two separate volcanoes (ancient and modern), but two "exhaust pipes" of an older and much more grandiose volcano, the caldera of which is the Gulf of Naples? Of course, such an assumption can only be called science fiction for now, but who knows!
However, let's return to a no less interesting scientific reality - to the Phlegrean Fields. So, their study showed that they are a huge ancient volcano, now dormant - but having a slightly different design than, for example, its neighbor Vesuvius. This type of volcanoes received the working name of supervolcanoes (supervolcano) - primarily for its size.
Fiery ulcers of the Earth
A typical volcano, as we imagine it, is a cone-shaped hill with a crater from which lava, ash and gases erupt. It is formed as follows: in the depths there is a volcanic chamber with magma, the contents of which find their way (channel) through cracks, faults and other “defects” earth's crust. As it rises, magma releases gases, turning into volcanic lava, and pours out through upper part channel, commonly called a vent. Breaking off around the vent, the products of the eruption build up the cone of the volcano.
Supervolcanoes, on the other hand, have their own peculiarity, because of which, until recently, no one even suspected of their existence. The fact is that they are not at all like the cone-shaped “caps” with a vent inside that are familiar to us. And it is unlikely that they would be able to build something similar - and not only because such a mountain would reach several tens of kilometers at the base and 15-20 in height, it would simply begin to fall into the ground, due to the fact that the crust does not able to bear such a burden. Actually, this is exactly what happened.
Their centers are located much closer to the earth's surface and are huge magma reservoirs - the area of their horizontal section is correspondingly large. According to one version, the eruption of a supervolcano began with the fact that magma melts and breaks the layer of the earth's crust above it, protruding a huge hump on the earth's surface (several hundred meters high and 15–20 kilometers or more in diameter).
Then the pressure increases, the magma is looking for a way out. Numerous vents and cracks appear along the perimeter of the supervolcano - and then its entire central part collapses down into the fiery underworld. Collapsed rocks, like a piston, sharply release huge volumes of magma and gases from the bowels - and they are thrown into the sky in giant lava fountains and cyclopean clouds of ash.
Such a phenomenon has never been seen not only by volcanologists, but also by homines sapientes in general - all terrestrial supervolcanoes erupted long before their appearance. However, the question remains: have they always been a rare geological phenomenon, or did their eruptions relatively often shake its body in the era of the stormy geological youth of our planet? Is their occurrence connected with the periods of the so-called. "increased volcanic activity» planets? The answers to these questions are yet to be found.
When the eruption of the supervolcano ended, a huge caldera remained from it, inside which a huge valley formed - a kind of "lid" over the magma chamber. Part of such a “lid”, its edge, just the Phlegrean Fields can be. Thus, if a classic volcano can be compared to a “pimple”, then a supervolcano is more like a serious hematoma or abscess.
His further fate may be different. It can sleep peacefully, turning into a reservoir for the lake, it can become a hot valley of thermal springs, and sometimes it can fool around with small eruptions, covered with volcanic cones. But it can erupt again - shaking the earth's crust. It all depends on the processes taking place in its bowels.To date, several objects fall under the definition of "supervolcano". Firstly, these are the same Phlegraean Fields. Secondly, this is the Toba volcano on the island of Sumatra, which in last time erupted about 74,000 years ago. Now its giant caldera with an area of 1775 sq. km is filled with water and is a very picturesque lake.
An ancient and very large supervolcano was recently discovered in Kamchatka. During the study of the area of Banny springs, employees discovered the remains of an ancient caldera there. With a more thorough study, its dimensions (25 by 15 km) and the approximate age were established - about one and a half million years. Thus, it is several times older than most of the Kamchatka volcanoes. To the version that the caldera is an ancient supervolcano, scientists were led by the study of a dome-shaped uplift in its center - caused by the presence of a powerful magma chamber under it.
But the most famous supervolcano is Yellowstone. national park(Yellowstone National Park), located in the Rocky Mountains in the northwestern part of Wyoming (USA). The most extensively studied, it also became the protagonist of the documentary "Supervolcano" (produced by the Air Force) and the fictional thriller of the same name - representing its possible eruption as the beginning of a grandiose cataclysm.
Volcanic winter
The eruption of an ordinary volcano on a planetary scale is nothing more than a terrible sight. Shown in the Hollywood films "Dante's Peak" and "Volcano" - nonsense compared to what happens when a supervolcano erupts. In a matter of hours, tens or even hundreds of cubic kilometers of ash and lava will be thrown out. And it will not work to defeat the elements with the help of bulldozers and dynamite - humanity can only watch and wait. Such a sad morality is conveyed to the audience by Supervolcano.
Detailed studies of Yellowstone Park, famous primarily for its geysers, began in the middle of the 20th century. Even then, scientists came to the conclusion that its giant caldera (70 by 30 km) is clearly of volcanic origin. Of course, the mind refused to believe in the existence of volcanoes of this size - therefore, it took many more years of research and theoretical development before the supervolcano model was developed.
In the course of them, it became known that the last three eruptions of the Yellowstone supervolcano occurred two million years ago, one million three hundred thousand years ago and six hundred and thirty thousand years ago. Thus, the conclusion was that the eruptions are more or less periodic, and the period is about six hundred and fifty thousand years. And this means that the case of the next eruption remains to wait a little - of course, according to the geological clock. However, not everyone heard this clarification, and a sensation swept across the United States, picked up in other countries and then embodied on the screen: the Yellowstone supervolcano will explode soon, save whoever can!
Forecasting the consequences global cataclysm not only interesting, but also highly demanded business. These forecasts are very popular among millions of ordinary people who read and stare at the scenario of the coming "end of the world." Therefore, as soon as forecasts appeared regarding the date of the eruption of supervolcanoes, forecasts of their consequences did not slow down.
So, in the first minutes after the collapse into the sky, to a height of up to fifty kilometers, columns of hot gases and ash shoot up. At the same time, pyroclastic flows will rush along the surface of the earth, burning everything within a radius of several tens of kilometers. And if the Yellowstone area is relatively sparsely populated, then such an explosion of the Phlegraean Fields will incinerate an area inhabited by millions of people.
In a few hours, most of the ejected ash will begin to settle, covering entire states with it. Cities located hundreds of kilometers from Yellowstone, of course, will not suffer the fate of Pompeii, but traffic will be very difficult - if at all possible. In addition, volcanic ash is not snow, it will not melt in the spring, and during precipitation it clogs the respiratory organs of people and animals, disables machines and mechanisms. It will not be easy to breathe because of volcanic gases - which include sulfur compounds.
But much more dangerous will be the ash left in the atmosphere: covering the sun's rays, it can create the effect of a "volcanic winter", almost no different from a "nuclear winter" - an effect that occurs during a global nuclear conflict and was calculated for the first time twenty years ago by the Soviet mathematician Nikita Nikolaevich Moiseev. It is now believed that the Tambora volcano eruption (1815), which ejected several cubic kilometers of volcanic material into the atmosphere, caused a global cooling - leading to a "year without summer" in Europe. Because of this eruption in 1816, the last pan-European famine in history occurred. Tens of thousands of Germans then moved to Russia and the United States. But these are just flowers. Recent studies have shown that the eruption of the supervolcano Toba led to a decrease in the average temperature by eleven degrees, and the resulting glaciation had the most catastrophic consequences.
As you might guess, such a disaster is akin to nuclear war Or an asteroid impact. However, humanity can avoid war - if it is guided by reason, not emotions. An uninvited space "aliens" can be tried to shoot down or deflect with the help of existing technologies. But methods to prevent the eruption of not only "super" but also ordinary volcanoes do not yet exist - that's why these forecasts cause concern, to put it mildly.
On the other hand, there is no reason to panic either. The catastrophe described can happen - but not tomorrow and not in a year. But a new reason to expect the “end of the world” has appeared in the near future. Therefore, we will still hear new "sensations" about the imminent explosion of a supervolcano, as well as about the collision of our planet with an asteroid, a black hole, and possibly even with
Almost all calderas on our planet are potentially dangerous. But if we talk a lot about Taupo or Tobe, then Campi Flegrei in Italy is for some reason deprived of attention. In fact, it is no less a threat than its overseas "brothers", and can lead to a big catastrophe that will destroy a significant part of Europe. Understanding what is happening to the Italian caldera could be vital to avoid the consequences of its activity in the future.
The last eruption in the subvolcanic system of Campi Flegrei occurred only 477 years ago - in 1538. The amount of volcanic material ejected from the caldera was enough to form Monte Nuovo near the city of Pozzuoli. To this day, signs of its earlier destructive activity have survived - the fumarole fields of Solfatara with hydrogen sulfide sources and the famous Roman columns "Temple of Serapis", indicating the flooding of the region along the Gulf of Pozzuoli.
Campi Flegrei is still active, so the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology of Italy (INGV) closely monitors its activities. The data obtained over the past few decades is disappointing. From 1982 to 1985, the surface of the caldera rose to a height of about 2 meters in just 3 years. In 1983, the center of the city of Pozzuoli - Rione Terre - suddenly rose, and then fell again. Then about 10 thousand people were forced to leave their homes and could not return, since access to this zone is now prohibited.
Since the beginning of 2012, the surface of the Campi Flegrei in the Pozzuoli region has been growing by about 6 cm per year. Although these figures are not as impressive as in the 1980s, they cause serious concern among volcanologists. According to a report from the Vesuvius Observatory published on July 21, 2015, the Flaygray Fields experience temporary growth accelerations from time to time. For example, only in January 2014, the soil rose by 8.5 cm, and in March 2015 - by 3 cm. In total, over the past 4 years, the growth of the caldera surface was 24 cm.
At the end of 2012, a strong deformation of the Bocca Grande crater was recorded in the fumarole fields of Solfatara, and over the past few years, a large number of earthquakes, mainly off the northern shores of the Gulf of Pozzuoli at a depth of 1–4 km. In particular, for Last year 119 earthquakes occurred here. Moreover, since 2003, the temperature of water and steam in the fumaroles of the volcano has risen by 10–15 ° C, and the composition of the released gases has become more “magmatic”, that is, with a higher content of carbon dioxide.
What does all of this mean? According to the conclusions of volcanologists, such a situation may indicate, firstly, a further uplift of magma, which began back in the 1980s. Secondly, this may be due to changes taking place in the hydrothermal system of the volcano. And thirdly, activity may increase due to the appearance of new magma in the bowels of Campi Flegrei. Combined with ground uplift, changes in gas composition, and rising temperatures in the fumaroles, the latter hypothesis seems the most likely.
Considering that serious changes in the 1980s did not lead to an eruption, it remains to be hoped that the current situation will not affect the activity of the volcano in any way. Scientists are still trying to answer the question of when the Campi Flegrei explosion will occur. This year they have drilled into the caldera and installed monitoring devices at great depths. But for now, the future of the Phlegrean Fields remains a mystery.
The Italian supervolcano Phlegraean Fields is one of the most dangerous in the world, not least because more than a million people live around it.
A new study, published in Scientific Reports, has identified the source of the magma that feeds the dormant and ominous cauldron. Unfortunately, this volcano is more dangerous than previously thought.
Search for the hot zone of a supervolcano
Typically, scientists use the seismic waves that magma emits as it makes its way through the crust to determine where it is currently located. But because this supervolcano has generally remained quiet since the mid-1980s, finding its source of magma is much more difficult. 
An international team led by specialists from the University of Aberdeen has attempted to solve this mystery. Using specialized mathematical analysis of seismic data collected since the mid-1980s, the team identified a hot zone at a depth of 4 km near Pozzuoli, near Naples. 
According to the results of the study, the hot zone is either a small amount of magma or the molten top of a massive magma chamber, liquid fire which is distributed deep below the surface of the earth. In any case, scientists have found strong evidence for the existence of an active heat source that supplies magma to one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. But the story doesn't end there. 
Rise in ground level above the caldera
One of the key mysteries of the Phlegrean Fields is their periodic and frightening growth. Between 1982 and 1984, the ground in the crater rose by 1.8 meters. Whatever the reason - magma, gas moving through the Earth's crust, or the movement of superheated water - soon the crater sank.
A new study explains why this growth did not end with a volcanic eruption. Seismic imaging shows that magma eruptions to the surface were prevented by a very rigid, shallow rock formation above it. That is why the magma spread in the transverse direction and could not break through. 
This means that the risk from the caldera has migrated. "Right now the Phlegraean Fields are like a pot of boiling soup below the surface," said study lead author Dr Luca de Siena, a geologist in Aberdeen. 
This means that instead of a single point of eruption, a new caldera may form. 
How did the Phlegrean fields form?
The Phlegrean Fields remain a monster that scientists understand very little. The caldera was formed 40,000 years ago during one of the most vigorous paroxysms of the last few million years. At that time, the supervolcano threw out about 500 cubic kilometers of debris, which could even reach Greenland, despite the distance of 4600 kilometers. 
Since then, there have been several eruptions, but he left most of the fireworks to volcanoes located near or inside the crater itself, such as Vesuvius and the ominous sulfuric Solfatara. Volcanologists remain acutely aware of the risk to the 6 million people living in the "explosion zone" of this monster, and therefore keep a constant eye on it. 
Should we be afraid of a new eruption
What's really worrying is that the Phlegrean Fields are growing again, although the risk of an eruption is now 24 times lower than it was in the early 1980s. As always, volcanologists do not know what is really happening, but they believe that the volcano is heading towards a critical moment when an eruption is imminent. 
Regardless of whether the eruption will form a new caldera, or if it will be a regular one, de Siena is confident that the volcano is becoming more and more dangerous. 
Forget Yellowstone. The Phlegrean Fields is a supervolcano that is really worth worrying about.
The magma beneath them has already created the necessary pressure and temperature, after reaching which a powerful eruption can cover the territories of a number of European countries at once.
Researchers from Italy and France have come to the conclusion that the supervolcano, which made a third of Europe temporarily uninhabited 39,000 years ago, is close to a new mega-eruption. It is not yet possible to give an exact date, but the information is significant and indicates the need for close monitoring of this rather dangerous place. The corresponding article is published in Nature Communications (http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13712).
Scientists have used simulations of the processes leading to especially strong eruptions. Before they happen, magma rising through the earth's crust hits a "lid" at the top. When the threshold pressure is reached, the rocks that make up the "lid" experience abrupt change. The compounds that make up magma decompose, releasing the water bound in their composition. Superheated water vapor immediately begins to heat the surrounding crustal rocks, reducing their strength. After that, the "lid" collapses and the bursting fountain of hot gases scatters debris and ashes over a great distance.
Having modeled how such processes take place in the area of the earth's crust near Naples, where the Phlegrean fields are located, scientists came to the conclusion that now the magma there is close to critical pressure, after which it will start the process of an avalanche-like destruction of the "lid". This means that a new eruption here will happen quite soon by geological standards. It is still difficult to specify its timing more precisely, since it is impossible to directly study these processes, and in order to create more accurate models, it is necessary to fix more parameters of mega-eruptions of this kind. So far, humanity has encountered only two - 39,000 and 70,000 years ago. And most of their witnesses died from the spill of lava and ashfall.
39,000 years ago, the volcano, which was on the site of the modern Phlegrean fields, had already erupted according to the pattern described above. Then it just blew up, and now only a slight depression remains in the place of the former huge mountain. Emissions of ash and stones covered an area of more than 1.1 million square kilometers in a thick layer - from southern Italy to the modern Black Sea region, Donbass and the Caspian Sea. Up to Romania, the ash layer reached almost a meter. Where the vegetation did not die completely, its growth was significantly inhibited.
Particles of volcanic rock in the stratosphere strongly scatter sunlight, resulting in a series of cold years. The main part of what was then Europe was already a rather cool paleotundra. In the absence of even moderate summer warming, the growth of the green mass of plants stopped, and the lack of light prevented photosynthesis. Therefore, those animals that did not die during the "rain" from the ashes left a significant territory from Italy to the Urals. The Neanderthals who lived here earlier also ceased to be found in this part 39,000 years ago. European continent. They survived only in Spain, where the ashes did not fall due to the winds.
