To run for mayor, Gudkov must overcome the municipal filter - to collect 110 signatures of the capital's deputies from different districts. Despite the high result, Gudkov failed to get his nominees through 110 districts. And this means that he will have to enlist the help of pro-government municipal deputies, like this help to Alexei Navalny in the mayoral elections in 2013.
Gudkov told RBC that for this he was ready to turn to local deputies from United Russia. “Not all United Russia members are supporters of Sergei Sobyanin, which means we will be able to negotiate with them,” he explained.
Bargaining for a filter
Everyone was satisfied with the results of these elections, Mikhail Vinogradov, head of the Petersburg Politics Foundation, told RBC. The mayor's office - by the fact that the voting day cost almost no scandals, the opposition - by the fact that they received more mandates than they expected. United Russia received 1,154 seats instead of the 900 seats that the party's representatives had in the current convocation. United Russia is very pleased with this result, Oleg Smolkin, head of the executive committee of the Moscow branch of the party, said in a conversation with RBC.
However, in general, the number of municipal deputies from the opposition parties has decreased: if in the current convocation the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party, A Just Russia and Yabloko have 390 Moscow deputies, then in the new convocation there will be only 233 of them.
Because of this, not only Yabloko, but also no other party, except United Russia, will be able to overcome the municipal filter in the upcoming mayoral elections in 2018 without the help of other parties, the head of the Moscow City Electoral Committee said. However, before the mayoral elections, the municipal filter may be canceled, political scientists Mikhail Vinogradov and Yevgeny Minchenko suggested in a conversation with RBC. The chairman of the CEC also spoke in favor of the abolition or mitigation of the filter. If the filter still remains, with a high probability Gudkov will still not be allowed to see them, because the Kremlin is not interested in an opposition leader becoming the mayor of Moscow, political scientist Abbas Gallyamov told RBC.
United opposition
In February, the head of Gudkov's headquarters, Maxim Katz, said that the politician intends to become the single Democratic candidate in the mayoral elections. This is quite feasible, Minchenko said in a commentary to RBC, because "for the liberal opposition, Gudkov is a no-alternative candidate" in the capital, and other options "are not yet visible." On the other hand, political analyst Konstantin Kalachev reminded RBC, one should not forget that until recently Navalny was the unofficial leader of the opposition, who "did not say his word and wants to be the sole leader."
Navalny himself practically did not take part in the municipal campaign and did not call on his supporters to vote for Gudkov’s list, limiting himself to supporting the team of Ilya Yashin, one of the Solidarity leaders, who won in the Krasnoselsky district. Gudkov's associates are dissatisfied with Navalny's silence and believe that, by ignoring the elections, the oppositionist "led United Russia deputies." “One link to our website from him would bring a significant number of deputies in different districts, for example, to Yasenevo, Kuntsevo, Koptevo,” Katz told RBC. “I can’t accurately estimate now how many EP deputies Navalny got, but this is a significant number of districts where he gave them the majority with his tactics of ignoring.”
Katz's accusations are unfounded, Leonid Volkov, head of Navalny's campaign headquarters, told RBC. “Katz lies that one tweet would be enough, because he knows very well how the election campaign works. Voting is not a click, which means that the post will not help to significantly change the situation, ”he said. In addition, both Navalny and his team talked about the elections on all their broadcasts and wrote about them on social networks, Volkov said. He recalled that Navalny is now running his own presidential campaign. “Therefore, we must prioritize,” added the head of the campaign headquarters.
The success of Gudkov's nominees in the municipal elections could be the beginning of a tacit confrontation between him and Navalny, Kalachev believes. According to Gallyamov, Navalny is a leader of the "leader" type, so his confrontation with Gudkov, who can now also claim the title of leader of the Russian opposition, cannot be ruled out.
Authorities mistake
Gudkov's team got a large number of supporters into the municipal deputies, despite the "drying" of the turnout. RBC oppositionists that the city authorities deliberately do not inform Muscovites about the elections in order to ensure a high percentage of support for United Russia candidates. The failure of the information campaign in Moscow and the chairman of the Central Election Commission Ella Pamfilova.
The bet on reducing interest in the municipal elections did not work, Kalachev believes: it led to the fact that loyal voters stayed at home and did not go to vote, while the protest youth, on the contrary, became more active.
The classic version of the United Russia campaign, focused on "drying" the turnout, has changed the distribution of forces in the opposition, Minchenko agrees. In his opinion, an ideologically charged opposition with a small but active electoral core arose during the last elections.
As previously reported by RBC, the number of young candidates among the nominees in the current municipal elections has increased by 22% compared to the 2012 campaign. Election participants told RBC that the influx of young people came at the expense of active young Muscovites. Due to the influx of opposition youth into local councils, the mayor's office will have to change the mechanisms for working with municipalities, Gallyamov predicted. “If earlier the latter simply took it under the hood and skipped rushing to fulfill the instructions received from Tverskaya, no matter how smart and legitimate they were, now the relationship will become very formal and cautious,” he said. According to the political scientist, first of all, we are talking about high-profile projects, for example, such as renovation and My Street.
Young opposition deputies will not be able to change anything in the work of municipalities, Kalachev disagrees with him. “All that the new nominees can do is keep a list of the sins of the city hall on the eve of the mayoral elections,” he told RBC.
Municipal deputies do not have many real powers. In fact, they can only decide on the construction of facilities with an area of not more than 1.5 thousand square meters. m, approve municipal budgets, hear reports from the head of the district council and decide on holding a local referendum. But in reality, this is a lot, especially if there are many representatives of the opposition among the members of the deputy council, Pavel Yarilin, who won the elections in the Airport district, told RBC. Municipal deputies may express no confidence in the head of the council. The deputies determine the list of yard areas for landscaping work, the list of houses for major repairs, decide on the installation of barriers, etc.
“Opposition councils can seriously oppose the district authorities, the main thing is to be able to agree [among themselves],” Yarilin concluded.
Gennady Gudkov refused to recognize the results of the gubernatorial elections in the Moscow region, which Vorobyov's team held according to the "Chechen scenario."
The falsifications were massive, the results were painted.
The candidate from "United Russia" Vorobeva "stretched" almost 80%!
Let me remind you that Putin in the presidential elections in the region scored 56%, and United Russia in the parliamentary elections - 33.5% of the vote.
Even the lickers from VTsIOM gave Vorobyov less.
Hundreds of such letters come from citizens to my mail:
Dmitry Gennadievich, hello, we sent this letter to the address of the headquarters, but I don't know. whether they read mail there, we send it to you, sorry if this is superfluous, but I would very, very much like to express my support for Gennady Gudkov.
We are from Voskresensk, the entire sane electorate of our city and Kolomna, of course, voted only for Gudkov, Gudkov is our governor.
These elections, 80% that Vorobyov made, is a disgrace to the Moscow region, terribly ashamed. In our city, at enterprises, budget and non-budget, they were forced, under threat of dismissal, to vote for Vorobyov, sign papers with photos and passport data stating that you support only Vorobyov, there are real cases of dismissal of acquaintances for refusing to participate in this, but they they are afraid to say it loudly, to complain, only in the kitchen they pass it all on to each other, these are people of the older generation.
They were intimidated that the ballot boxes were transparent and they would keep track of who voted for whom. No one knew who the candidates were except those who were told by their children who knew information from the Internet, and those who were forced to vote for Vorobyov.
People were afraid to say for whom they voted if they did not vote for Voroviev, and no one voluntarily voted for him (especially for Gudkov, "among the people" Gudkov was a very popular candidate, but this is again whispering "in the kitchen", but not open statements They brought people, almost like in Stalin's time, everyone is afraid.)
Of course, we, our generation, would never do such a thing, we cannot be intimidated, but the older generation, apparently remembering the Soviet regime, succumb to such intimidation. At the same time, many people still voted for Gudkov, under pain of dismissal, acquaintances. parents, relatives (about the younger generation, and so it is clear), plus those who work in Moscow, but our votes, apparently, were not counted.
The problem in the Moscow region is that it is fragmented, there is no single platform, protests are hardly possible, we go to Moscow for rallies, and there we also support Gennady Vladimirovich Gudkov.
This is just a letter of support and shame for the suburbs.
But we will win!
Thank you for the fact that there are such people, real people, real men, like Gennady Vladimirovich, who do not make a deal with their conscience. I don’t know if Gennady Vladimirovich himself will read this letter, but I would very much like to support him and you!
Daria and Andrey, Voskresensk.
Here's what happened in the suburbs.
We have not been able to raise money for an active and offensive campaign, but nevertheless we know how people voted.
Vorobyov - almost 90%
Gudkov - 0.7% (total 500 votes).
Brazen crooks! We do not recognize this fabricated victory.
Read more details and details later in G. Gudkov's blog.
"We'll have to resolve the conflict, let's say"
Dmitry Gudkov and his team can be called the beneficiaries of the past Moscow municipal elections. The fact that the composition of the metropolitan deputies of the municipal corps has become much more oppositional than before is also their merit (76% of the metropolitan mandates were received by United Russia). However, today Dmitry Gennadievich is forced to answer not only pleasant questions.
Dmitry, you declared victory, although not complete. But in the context of plans for next year, the intention to nominate a candidate for mayor, it still looks more like a defeat: the municipal filter is still insurmountable.
Whatever they say in the Moscow City Electoral Committee, we must admit the obvious fact: we have become the second political force in Moscow. By a huge margin from the rest. There is no other real parliamentary opposition in the city. We are 250 independent deputies. At least, this is the order - we don't know the exact number yet.
The head of the Moscow City Electoral Committee tells us that no one will be able to overcome the municipal filter without the help of United Russia. And I say that no legitimate elections are possible anymore in Moscow without our participation. The second political force will somehow find an opportunity to take part in these elections. How it will be technically designed - no longer matters.
- But how do you see it anyway?
In general, the municipal filter must, of course, be cancelled. This is a shameful barrier. But we have 250 deputies. And you need 110 signatures. Therefore, let them change the Moscow legislation, let them not impose such conditions that signatures should be from each district.
In a number of districts where your team ran, there were alternative teams that opposed the authorities. In this connection, some colleagues in the opposition camp accuse you of spoiling, that you contributed to the dispersion of democratic forces.
And what, for example, prevented you from finding a common language with the city defender Alexandra Parushina, who ran in Khamovniki? (Parushina, already very well known as an active current Mundep and walking under the auspices of Yabloko, took first place in her district in the area where no United Russia party was elected - MK).
We were ready to add Parushina, but she went into conflict with our team. I wanted to meet her, talk, discuss the situation. But she didn't even agree to that. However, now this conflict will have to be resolved, let's say. Now we have to work together. Now Parushina has the opportunity, together with our deputies, to form a majority and really influence the situation in the region...
Meanwhile, at today's press conference, the head of Gudkov's headquarters, Maxim Katz, said that he wants to remove the head of the capital's Yabloko, Sergei Mitrokhin, from his post and hopes to head the party branch himself, since Mitrokhin, although a "wonderful person," is ineffective. Asked why Navalny did not support Gudkov's project, Katz suggested personal hostility and added that the election boycott strategy, which the founder of the Anti-Corruption Foundation staked on, had a negative impact on the turnout, although in the end it did not materialize.
The most interesting thing for a day at MK is in one evening mailing list: subscribe to our channel at.
The staff gathered for the morning flight. They share their achievements: “Even my parents went and voted for Yabloko, although my dad doesn’t go at all!” “And how many people I campaigned yesterday! I don’t know which of my friends to write to go vote - everyone goes like that.”
Chief of Staff Maxim Katz is instructing. The task of the headquarters workers today is to greet those going to the polling station with the words “Vote for the future!” Campaigning on election day is prohibited, but Katz is sure that in the area where the staff officer spent a lot of time going around apartments and campaigning on the streets, people will recognize him by sight and remember Gudkov.
“Man-agitation material,” laughs a pretty blonde with glasses.
One or two campaign material people go to close more than 240 polling stations in the Tushino district. The girls are wrapped up from head to toe, one even in a fur coat: they are preparing to freeze. You cannot leave your post. “Neither ‘quickly’, nor ‘if you have time’, nor ‘to the neighboring district’, nor ‘vote’ – no way!” - the head of staff is categorical. The campaign is not counting on election observation, but on increasing the number of ballots for Gudkov in ballot boxes: otherwise an honest count will not help. “And if no one meets people at the polling station, we can get an impulsive vote for Baburin, as was the case last time,” Katz believes: two years ago he himself was nominated for the Moscow City Duma in Shchukino, which is now part of Gudkov’s district, and, like at Gudkov, competed with Sergei Baburin, a well-known and strong candidate. Katz then lost to both the communist and United Russia Oleg Soroka. United Russia is also very prominent in the district - the former chief medical officer of Russia, Gennady Onishchenko. Together with Defense Ministry council chairman Igor Korotchenko, writer Eduard Bagirov and municipal deputy Ilya Sviridov, they are tearing apart conservative voters, allowing Gudkov to accumulate protest votes.
Polling station, Strogino, 3 p.m.
On the wall, for the first time in 13 years, there are not only descriptions of parties, but also portraits of single-mandate candidates: the mixed system was returned only this year.
“Don’t you know Onishchenko? What, you don't watch TV? He won’t get out of there, ”the old woman points to the portrait of the United Russia member. Her friend objects that she has already voted - for Sviridov: "He is for the clinic, in general, for the people." The girl with purple lipstick squints, meticulously compares education, professions, incomes of deputies: “He has something decent,” points to Baburin. - What about this one? - reads the description of Gudkov's merits. And he recoils: - Oh my God, he's from the "Yabloko"! Baburin has an income of 900 thousand, comparable to mine, but this one has how much! The annual income of State Duma deputy Dmitry Gudkov is 4 million rubles.
"I want to know what they offer something!" insists the girl with purple lipstick. To do this, one had to look around oneself a little earlier: the campaign turned out to be hot in the district, all the streets were filled with agitation, and even United Russia organized meetings in the yards, not to mention its competitors. But there are still quite a lot of such voters, who only at the polling station begin to be interested in the future choice. A blue-eyed young man in a plaid jacket, with a swirling chic mustache, came in company with his father and knows no candidates: “I just pointed my finger at the sky, who has more honest eyes.” Both the candidate from the government and the main opposition leader of the district are equally unpleasant to his elderly father:
- Both Gudkov and Onishchenko did not like me for their aggressiveness. Like taxi drivers at the station: “Me, no, me!” Stand in line until you are chosen!
I meet Gudkov's staunch supporters — two long-haired metalhead brothers, and an even more ideological pensioner Democrat who want their vote to mean something so that an empty ballot is not put in a pack for the ruling party. “I came in the hope that something depends on my voice,” a girl in sneakers with large glass beads and a toy terrier trembling on a leash literally repeats their words. And she votes for United Russia: "I hope that the government will support me in the future." When asked what good this party did, he answers: “This is the party of our president. And I have respect for our government, if only for the fact that it maintains peace. We live in peacetime and help other countries to take on the same fight against terrorists. At the level of world politics, I believe that there is no equal to our president.” At the gates of the school, a pollster from VTsIOM approaches the girl, and it turns out that the voter no longer remembers the name of the United Russia single-mandate member for whom she voted.
Alexander, an observer from the Communist Party, admits that, in general, he treats United Russia well:
- They have one course, that of "ER", that of the Communist Party - for the prosperity of the country. And what should the opposition fight for? In Ukraine, it was clear: some wanted to be with Russia, others with Europe. And here - either to be a great power, or to flirt with the West.
Alexander carries cargo on a truck - he is against Platon, which, however, did not touch him, and he knows very well that "outside the Moscow region, roads in Russia end", because officials steal on asphalt. He is also a Crimean, and until March 2014 he was a citizen of Ukraine. “I saw enough of the political games there. The new government divides and takes everything anew every time. And when one has nestled, let it stay.”
Before school, 7 p.m.
- For me! the boy replies confidently.
In front of the cameras, the candidate talks about the 251 meetings he held, because of which he put his vote down, that his main opponent “hid in the TV”, about how much even a small faction in the Duma can change. The Russians have an hour to get her to the Duma. The candidate's wife is in the corner of the school hall photographing the children. A woman in a uniform apron sells sandwiches in the school locker room and watches intently as Gudkov gives foreign television comments in English.
Photo: Evgeny Feldman / Novaya Gazeta It got dark. On the way to the polling station next to the headquarters, a young man jumps up to the voters: “Good evening! Vote for the future! Boris, shivering from the cold, explains that everyone “spudded” their parts of the district, where they found supporters, so that they would already agitate their friends and neighbors. So here his face is familiar to many: "True, those who recognize me, and so are our people." For Boris, this is the third election campaign. “The main thing you understand while working for a campaign is that people are different. A man opens the door for you - blind in one eye, with tufts of hair, in a vest, as if he had been drinking for the last three years. You think - now it will pour on me. But it turns out the opposite!”
“American lackeys, you don’t have a present, let alone a future,” a woman wrapped in a scarf suddenly shouts to Boris, having moved to a safe distance.
“They think the truth will hurt me,” Boris shrugs. - Vigilantes, members of the electoral committee come up to me all the time here and start to put pressure on me. But if they do not react, they understand that they cannot do anything. Can't react. Our entire state is built on intimidation.
Headquarters, after polling stations closed
At nine o'clock, the headquarters is filled with guys and girls who have stood all day at the polling stations, who tell without stopping:
- And they answered me: “Yes, we are for the future - for Putin!”
I beat the police! They realized that nothing could be done with me, and left.
And they just took me away!
Judging by the stories, the police tried very hard to find propaganda in the words “Vote for the Future”, several guys were taken to the department, and for some reason one detained employee of the headquarters was recorded in the protocol that he campaigned for the “Party of Growth”.
Boris returns to headquarters. Turns out it's his birthday today. “I outlived all the vigilantes who were assigned to me - they withstood a maximum of an hour on the street,” he says, receiving a glass of tea. The result from the PEC, before which Boris was on duty, becomes known first: Gudkov won almost twice as many votes as Onishchenko.
Photo: Evgeny Feldman / Novaya Gazeta On the plasma screen is a table of the votes of the first three candidates, which is updated as soon as new data arrives. At the first few PECs, Gudkov is in the lead, but soon begins to fall behind United Russia. “We have the second everywhere in the Yabloko district,” the candidate remarks: he confidently chalks it up to his campaign.
The lag behind Onishchenko is considered “with crooks” and “without crooks”: a crowd of military men was seen at one of the polling stations, and the result of the municipal elections, which are held in Shchukino simultaneously with the federal ones, was canceled there. So there is a chance to review the results of the Duma vote. However, the gap is widening: when 17% of the votes are counted, Gudkov is 1,040 ballots behind Onishchenko.
Meanwhile, in US cities that are assigned to the Gudkov district (Miami, Boston, Washington and Chicago) it is still daytime, and voting is in full swing. The headquarters really hopes for two thousand votes from there to catch up with United Russia. True, so far the turnout of Russians in America is small. “But there are only ours,” the candidate believes.
Gennady Gudkov, the candidate's father, silently wanders back and forth around the headquarters. The candidate himself is gloomy before our eyes, he sits ruffled and eats lozenges from his throat. The employees of the headquarters - among them it is difficult to find someone over thirty - do not succeed in sitting gloomily. At first, they clap every time someone reads good results from the next PEC. When the separation of United Russia from Gudkov becomes serious, they run to the nearest supermarket for cupcakes and cola, and from the second floor of the headquarters there is a ringing of guitars and the many-voiced “My heart has stopped ...”
“We will lose from one to four percent,” predicts Katz.
- Losing one percent to United Russia - isn't it a victory anyway? I ask.
“Who needs such a victory,” Gudkov shrugs.
You often ask me what is the plan of action. This post is just about that. https://mundep.gudkov.ru/
There are two important campaigns ahead (besides the presidential one, but this is not about that now) - the election of the mayor of Moscow (September 2018) and the municipal elections in Moscow (September 2017). The word "elections" can be put in quotation marks, but this does not diminish their significance. Elections in the capital are always federal history. Moscow sets the tone for all Russian politics. Changes in Moscow, if they occur, mean changes in the country. I don’t want to delve into this issue, I’ll just try to argue why I believe in the reality of change.
Moscow is a city with great potential for democratic and progressive forces. This is due to the level of education and wealth of its residents, their access to the Internet, a large number of independent media compared to other regions of Russia, and a high concentration of potentially active citizens capable of self-organization. All this affects the results of elections at different levels.
Resources
Any elections, and even more so “elections”, are always a struggle of resources. Financial, media, organizational, human, etc. Many of us, unfortunately, live in a world of illusions and are sure that in order to win, it is enough to defeat the opponent in the debate, write 5 bright posts on Facebook - and that's it. Unfortunately, life is very different. And the main problem of the opposition is not so much the results of a dishonest vote count or a bad program, but the lack of access to such important resources for victory as money and the media. Without financial and media resources, it is difficult to attract the number of adequate people necessary for success.
The authorities, unlike many oppositionists, are well aware of this fact. Therefore, we do not have access to the media, and big business is prohibited from financing political projects without the consent of the Kremlin. In the “elections” to the State Duma, with a more or less honest vote count in Moscow, the less charismatic single-mandate members from United Russia, who at the time of the elections had disproportionately more resources, won by an order of magnitude. I am sure that the readers of my blog are unlikely to remember the names of at least 3 State Duma deputies who won in the single-mandate constituencies of Moscow.
Nevertheless, we know successful campaigns when opposition representatives showed results above 20% - A. Navalny (mayor elections, 2013), M. Kats (MGD elections, 2014) and your humble servant (State Duma elections, 2016). In all cases, there was a good organization, successful fundraising, but in order to qualify for victory, work on mobilizing resources must begin in advance.
Moscow
The most interesting story is, of course, the election of the mayor. Here you need to put a lot of quotes at once. According to the current legislation, which I actively opposed in the last convocation of the State Duma, a citizen cannot participate in elections without passing the so-called. municipal filter. There are more than 1,800 municipal deputies in Moscow. 6% of them must put their signature for the candidate, and only in this case he can be a participant in the mayoral elections. So it was specially conceived to cut off opponents at the registration stage.
But we can overcome this barrier too. Elections in Moscow are held in multi-member constituencies. Even if our candidate loses to the administrative resource and comes second or third, he still becomes a deputy. The turnout is expected at the level of 7-15%. With a good mobilization campaign, the share of our potential voters can be quite high.
Elections of municipal deputies will be held this year, in September. It is in September that the fate of the future mayoral elections will be decided. Therefore, we propose to act now.
Previously, we were looking for volunteers and assistants, today we are looking for future municipal deputies. More precisely, until the candidates. Despite the activity of various political forces, few people want to participate in municipal elections: they do not pay salaries, there are few powers, and it is necessary to spend time and effort. In addition, there is a popular myth that work is not only meaningless, but also dangerous. As a result, with a low turnout and lack of motivation for many adequate people to participate in elections to municipal assemblies, state employees most often go through the order of district administrations or prefectures. Opposition politicians and social activists are becoming a rare exception: their voices are dissolved in the general mass of loyal Mundeps.
To win local elections and overcome the municipal filter, democratic forces need to nominate at least 600-800 active candidates for municipal deputies who would run in different districts without competing with each other.
Therefore, I ask you to take a direct part in the elections, to become candidates. To do this, you do not need to be a politician at all, no matter how old you are and what kind of work you do. The post of a municipal deputy is rather a volunteering, a small job, and not at all a vocation for life.
It is extremely important for us now to elect 2-3 municipal deputies in each district of Moscow, who will ensure that no one cheats or steals in the councils, that erroneous decisions are not made, so that in the end we have the opportunity to nominate a candidate for mayor, collecting municipal signatures. Ideally, I would like to create a coalition with all independent candidates and take the majority in municipal assemblies, as we did in Shchukino in September 2016.
Why we need you is understandable. But why do you need us?
We will provide you with resource support. First, we will teach you how to conduct an election campaign. Do not be afraid of this word: to win, on average, you will need to convince 2,500 people: it’s really possible to bypass them on your own, spending about 2-3 weeks on it. We will tell you how to properly communicate with voters, how it is more convenient to organize such rounds, what kind of campaigning to use.
According to experience, the municipal campaign requires about 80 thousand rubles. We will try to help you find funds and organize the printing of campaign materials that you can distribute to voters so that they remember you.
Finally, we will talk about you on our blogs and social networks, introduce you to journalists: in this way, we will try to attract the media to support you.
And one more important thing: you will not be alone. All candidates that we find will be able to communicate with each other, share experience and, if necessary, act together: and there are enough city-wide issues that are reflected in each district in Moscow. Our headquarters will also take care of the issue of coordination with the various political forces of the city, so that democratic candidates do not compete with each other, but work as a team.
All that I am writing about here is not empty words, since our team has already won the municipal elections in Shchukino last year, and now in this area there is the only independent municipal assembly in all of Russia.
All other questions that you may have are described in the most detailed way here.
