Who is the enemy and friend of Belarus. Lukashenka and Belarus are moving into the camp of Russia's enemies - the opinion of Russian political scientists. chronicle of relations between Russia and Belarus

11.03.2017 11:01

As state experience and practice have shown, Russia has only two allies - the army and the navy. As for Lukashenka, with such a friend, indeed, there is no need for enemies.

Below is a list of the grateful gestures of the Old Man towards the country, thanks to the favor of the VPR and the sympathy declared in words, he, in fact, held on to his post for many years.

MUSTACHED JUDAS

1. Lukashenka did not recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and recently Belarusian Foreign Minister Makei laid flowers at the memorial to the dead Georgian soldiers on the border of Ossetia. Thus, who killed Russian peacekeepers in Tskhinvali.

2. Lukashenka did not recognize Crimea. Taking advantage of Russia's difficult international position, he is trying in every possible way to harm her, rip her off and rob her to the maximum, without offering anything to support her.

3. Lukashenka organized a fraudulent export scheme for fuels and lubricants under the guise of solvents, increasing their export a hundred times during the year.

4. Lukashenka is very friendly with Poroshenko, and recently he publicly crucified that Ukraine is fighting against the aggressor.

5. Lukashenka organized the smuggling of sanctioned goods on a cyclopean scale, thereby putting the entire counter-sanction policy of Russia in jeopardy.

6 Lukashenka began to rewrite history textbooks to please the Litvins, publicly urged "to develop healthy nationalism" verbatim.

7. Lukashenka did not recognize the LPR and DPR, did not give them a single gram of assistance. Military factories of Belarus are repairing aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

8. Lukashenka supplies fuel for the ATO. All Ukrainian armored vehicles and tanks use Belarusian fuel. In 2016 alone, supplies of fuel and lubricants to Ukraine were increased by 1/3.

9. Lukashenka does not comply with the signed agreements, harms and sabotages the activities of the Customs Union and the EAEU as much as possible.

10. Lukashenka has made astronomical debts (40 billion dollars), does not pay% on them and constantly begs for additional money, while out of the $ 14 billion state budget, $ 7 billion are direct and indirect subsidies to Russia.

11. Lukashenka disrupts the agreed supplies of gasoline to the Russian Federation, although he receives duty-free oil for this. In 2016, the supply of gasoline to the Russian Federation was reduced by 1/3, but for Ukrainians, always please, he increased their supplies by 1/3 at the expense of Russia.

12. Lukashenka flirts with nationalists and jails pro-Russian bloggers, arrests and extradites Russian citizens to other countries.

13. Lukashenko threatens to arrest and try Russian federal officials.

14. Lukashenka allows himself to publicly and constantly insult Russia - "they have no brains."

15. Lukashenka arrested and imprisoned a Russian director of Uralkali, although he came at the personal invitation of the Belarusian prime minister.

16. Lukashenka destroyed the Belarusian army, sold all military aviation to Africa and South America, now he is begging Putin for new planes and helicopters in order to sell them. For a quarter of a century, not a single new tank, not a single new armored vehicle has been purchased. Secret military technology sold to the Chinese.

17. Lukashenka refused to place a military base, although he himself promised it.

18. Lukashenko, taking advantage of the lack of border and customs control on the Russian-Belarusian border, decided to arrange a passage yard for Ukrainian nationalists, terrorists and football fanatics there in order to disrupt the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

19. Lukashenka suddenly decided to pay half as much for the already cheapest Russian gas supplied in Europe. Thus, he provokes a monstrous economic sabotage against Russia. After all, this precedent can provoke other buyers of Russian gas, to set the prices they like.

20. The Belarusian market is tightly closed from Russian goods, while Belarusian goods freely explore the Russian market.

Notice, no subjective assessments - just a pure enumeration of facts.

Links

KLIMENT EFREMOVITCH TELLS

Lukashenka: “Russia has neither money nor brains” Russia, in violation of its allied obligations, refused to supply weapons to Belarus and intends to seize the assets of the Belarusian military-industrial complex for nothing, Lukashenka is sure

MINSK, 14 August 2015, 23:11 - REGNUM Russia will not wait for the implementation of the “five integration projects”, in particular, it will not gain control over the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant OJSC (MZKT). This was stated on August 14 by Alexander Lukashenko while visiting a state-owned enterprise.

Walking through the plant with the film crew, Lukashenka sharply criticized the leadership of the Russian Federation, which allegedly refused to help its nominal ally. According to Lukashenka, Russia is "pushing" him for "turning to the West", and in order to prevent this from happening - "it is necessary to show the true face of Russia", but it is greedy and by no means allied.

The head of the post-Soviet republic lamented the lack of opportunities to produce aircraft and other types of high-tech weapons, moving away from external dependence.

He ordered the production of components for aircraft, the production of missiles and the abandonment of Russian armored cars, purchasing the Belarusian counterpart, the Cayman, which is supposedly better than the Russian Tiger.

Lukashenka said that Russia "should" provide him with weapons, because. allegedly there is a "common army" in Belarus.

He noted that Russia refuses not only to supply weapons, but even components, trying to put pressure on the head of the post-Soviet republic and "for a pittance" to acquire such factories as the MZKT, which produces chassis for rocket launchers.

“They scare us that Russia, they say, will invent its own “centipedes” and will transport nuclear warheads on its own - and to health!

If they have brains and money today, which they don’t have, let them invent!” Lukashenka said, addressing the director of the state-owned enterprise and a group of officials accompanying him.

He stressed: Russia does not seek to acquire MZKT at a real cost, which is estimated by someone in Minsk at $3 billion. “If you sell it! They want to take it away from us for nothing!” Lukashenka said.

Later, he developed the theme at a meeting with "representatives of the plant's labor collective." A small group of "ordinary workers" in snow-white shirts and suits with ties asked Lukashenka several questions, clearly pronouncing difficult formulations.

They were interested in the topics of trade union life, rental housing, etc. The head of the post-Soviet republic outlined his position on a number of issues that he had been sorely concerned with, among which was the implementation of “five integration projects”.

Recall that one of these projects is the merger of MZKT with the Russian State Corporation "Rostec" ("Russian Technologies"). On March 16, Alexander Lukashenko, when appointing Igor Letov as the general director of the MZKT, said that the MZKT would remain a Belarusian state enterprise. “No game for sale, resale.

The state has evaluated this enterprise,” Lukashenka said. - Pay money - get shares. No money - goodbye.

Keep in mind: your task, of any leader, is not to sell the enterprise, privatize it or in some other way, but to save it. This is a public enterprise."

“The Russian Federation is very active in this direction: “We want, we want, sell us this plant.”

When we start naming a price, they open their eyes wide. Then I say: “Goodbye,” Lukashenka shared the details of the negotiations.

That is, if something is to be sold, then it must be sold for money, and for big money.

But we are often told: "You know, we can build such a plant for a billion dollars, and you demand two billion from us."

I say: "Try!". A factory can be built, walls are inexpensive, equipment can be bought, and credits can be given by those who produce the equipment.

But to teach people to work on this equipment and within these walls, to create a school in order to receive a quality product - these are not even years, but decades.

Lukashenka is sure that there is no replacement for MZKT products in Russia, as well as there is no replacement for MTZ products. He urged to work more actively in the Russian market, to keep it.

“We do not intend to sell this enterprise yet,” Lukashenka stressed. - It should work for us. This is an indicator of how you can work in difficult conditions.”

In parting, the director of the MZKT presented Lukashenka with a copy of the Polonaise rocket launcher, which is produced on the chassis of this plant.

And here Lukashenka did not fail to declare his resentment towards Russia, noting that without his timely instructions, Belarus would have lost the protection provided by such equipment, because. “Our Russian brothers stopped helping us to protect ourselves.”

As REGNUM reported, on February 6, 2012, Alexander Lukashenko, during a meeting with State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Leonid Maltsev and Defense Minister Yuri Zhadobin, said that Belarus was protecting the western borders of the Union State of Belarus and Russia and was counting on Russia's financial assistance in increasing the monetary allowance of Belarusian military personnel.

The President of Russia at that time was Dmitry Medvedev, who did not react in any way to the statement of the head of the post-Soviet republic, and a scandal began in Belarus itself, fueled by unsuccessful attempts by high-ranking military officers to justify Lukashenka and shame those who wrote dismissal reports.

In the same 2012, a “plush landing” took place, revealing the inability of Belarus to independently protect part of the western border of the Union State.

After that, Russia supplied weapons to Belarus and sent several crews of the Russian Air Force, which, as it turned out recently, departed in an unknown direction.

It should be noted that throughout the entire post-Soviet period, Russia was a sponsor of the authorities of Belarus, whose people, at a referendum on March 17, 1991, unambiguously spoke out in favor of preserving the USSR (83%) and never aspired to leave a single state.

Alexander Lukashenko became president of Belarus in 1994 as a pro-Russian politician who promised to "repair broken ties" and "rebuild the country".

In the 1990s, he was perceived as an integrator and a "statesman", and in the early 2000s - as one of the typical post-Soviet rulers, for whom power in their destiny acts as the highest value, and for this they are ready to invent any justification and very often - at the Russian expense.

Details: http://regnum.ru/news/polit/1952292.html?utm_source=infox.sg Any use of materials is allowed only if there is a hyperlink to REGNUM news agency.

I consider it unacceptable to discuss with you in such a tone. In this case, the rule applies: if the opponent switches to insults, then he is wrong. I advise you to drink Belarusian milk and read the attached interview with A.G. Lukashenko.
"Sanction", industry and oil - Lukashenka told
about the details of the meeting with Putin
April 6, Minsk / Corr. BELTA/. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko in an interview with the interstate television and radio company "Mir" spoke about the details of the meeting with President of Russia Vladimir Putin on April 3 in St. Petersburg. According to the head of the Belarusian state, the main topic of the talks was the issues of security and defense. “We are not going to fight, but we have learned lessons from the past. In this context, we had a conversation with Putin on the main issue,” Alexander Lukashenko said. The second topic of the talks was cooperation in the economic sphere. "These are oil and gas problems, as they were presented in the media, issues of industrial policy, the development of agriculture and cooperation between the two countries in this area, and so on. By the way, we have practically no problems in agriculture: we clearly formulate programs for every year , including food supplies, especially to the Russian Federation. For example, in the Russian Federation today there is a shortage of dairy products - seven million tons. We supply there four million. The free market is still not closed for three million. But it is necessary to close so that prices do not rose," the President noted. Alexander Lukashenko drew attention to the fact that Belarusian enterprises practically do not compete with Russian ones, since the market in this country is free. “The fact that our prices are lower and the quality is higher is not a reason to spread rot and not let us enter the market. We need to work in Russia, produce products that are free of nitrates, for example. We need to process these products using modern milk - and meat processing enterprises. Then products of normal quality will enter the market. And prices ... This is not the case when you can cash in on the wallets or pockets of Russians. After all, our products are not so much premium, but for ordinary people. Although we are premium We produce. But we mainly deliver to the Russian Federation for ordinary people. They love these products. We are open - come and check. What should we hide? We have brought the processing of agricultural products in line with world standards," the head of state assured. The quality of Belarusian goods, according to him, is also confirmed by the fact that it is valued in Europe, where they carefully select products. “But the Russians started to slow down. In connection with this, we moved on to another issue: I showed him (Vladimir Putin. - Approx. BelTA) who is profiting from this “sanction,” the President said. As for the claims against the Belarusian side about re-export of products, Alexander Lukashenko advised the Russian side to look into this issue. “It is possible to bring products of any state to the territory of Belarus. This is not done by Belarusians, as it turned out, but by Russian gangsters from the high road. And I showed him the cards. We agreed that in the near future we would take a system of measures to prevent this. "But only we, I say, should not be ridiculed. If your government members there today own huge latifundia, are also engaged in agriculture and, in order to reduce competition, they begin to spread rot on Belarusians, this will not work. We will be forced to respond to this adequately," he stressed. - We have balances for each year: how much milk, how much meat to deliver to the Russian Federation. We do not even choose these volumes. Therefore, we should not be reproached for flooding Russia with some kind of sanctions products. We did not do this and we don't." During the talks, the presidents discussed cooperation in the industrial sector. The need to develop cooperation between enterprises was noted. "Why put KamAZ on more favorable terms than our MAZ? Common market, let's negotiate and work. We need to cooperate, no one is against it. But it should be decent and honest, and not something like "you give us this enterprise and forget about it ". Why act in this way? We are not going to give anything to anyone," the head of state said. "If you want to participate in privatization, the price is known. Pay money and come, we are not against it. But the main thing is that people should not be thrown out into the street of these enterprises and that this enterprise be modernized and developed. The parties decided to discuss these issues in detail during the upcoming meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State. In addition, an agreement was reached to restore oil supplies to Belarus in the same volumes. “It is a fact that we are paying a decent price for gas today. We have found solutions on this issue, and Russia is compensating us for this discrepancy in the current price and the real price by re-exporting oil. Oil prices are now acceptable, we have no problems here and will not be. We are finishing the modernization of our oil refineries in the near future, although they are still at a very high level. But when we finish, the yield of light oil products will be 95%, then the issue of oil will disappear by itself. We will be able to buy oil from any market, process at home and receive the corresponding profit. The Russians also understand this,” Alexander Lukashenko stated. Discussed during the talks between the two leaders and other topics. “Plus, issues of a human nature, which are very important for the functioning of the Union State. We also discussed them. But there are no critical problems in relation to people: relocation, employment, pensions, social issues…,” the President explained.
The presence of their own problems should push Belarus and Russia to unite in the SG
April 7, Minsk / Corr. BELTA/. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko stated this in an interview with the interstate television and radio company Mir, BelTA informs. "Let's not lock ourselves into national frameworks. Yes, it has become more difficult, sanctions have been imposed against Russia, and they still remain against Belarus in certain areas. Clearly, there are problems. So let's act together. Just the moment that should push us towards unity, towards unification, and we, on the contrary, create problems so as not to unite, but to disperse in different directions,” Alexander Lukashenko said. The President recalled that if at one time the countries had not abandoned the plan to build the Union State, then now there would be no questions not only from journalists, but also from Belarusians and Russians. "I mean the agreement on the construction of the Union State. But we have moved away from it. And we should have held a referendum and created a general law - the general constitution of our future Union State. But at one time we did not do this, we took and pulled out individual issues and began to solve them. Thank God, at least they did it, it's not harmful," the head of state said. It is not yet possible to talk about the full-fledged formation of the Union State with all its attributes (a common constitution, a single currency, and so on). “We are not ready for this today. And not so much the Belarusians as the Russians, the Russian leadership. But then we need to solve other issues. As for the people, we have done a lot. Now we need to look at the economy,” the President noted. In particular, we are talking about equal conditions for the development and functioning of enterprises. “What are the equal conditions here, if we, our enterprises, receive natural gas five times more expensive than Russia? And how can we compete there in the common market? and other measures. And it is difficult to carry out modernization, because profits are decreasing,” Alexander Lukashenko explained. “If we go for an alliance, let’s at least demonstrate within the framework of the union of Belarus and Russia that we can create equal conditions for the life of people, free displacement, employment, social issues, health care, education and so on, and for businesses." “The principle of the Union State is equal relations: there can be no union if there are no equal relations. This does not mean taking everything we have in Russia and Belarus and dividing it equally. I once said: if we take it and share it equally, then we will choke on the piece that Belarus will get. We do not claim this. There are probably 140 million, 145 million people, but we have less than 10 million. Why are we going to claim equal shares? In no case. We just have to work honestly in this regard and give enterprises the opportunity to work both there and here," the head of state summed up.
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: "close friendly relations, implying emotional attachment, mutual support, trust, common activities and interests."

If one of the friends rushes from one friend to another, and the old friend begins to be considered an enemy, this is not friendship. Friendship is like a marriage - both in sorrow and in joy, both during quarrels and during the best relationships. And although friendship is a mutual concept, let's look at it only from the side of one of the friends.

Who are the true friends of modern Russia?

Now Russians consider Belarus (55% of respondents), China (43% even ahead of Kazakhstan), and Kazakhstan (41%) to be such.
And who are the enemies?
USA (73% of respondents), Ukraine and the EU (the same value of 59%). The anti-rating also includes Latvia (25%), Lithuania (25%) and Poland (22%).
(“New Time” with reference to recent data from the Levada Center)

It is interesting to compare these data with data from eight years ago.
“A survey conducted by Yuri Levada's analytical center showed that about 60% of our fellow citizens now consider Estonia to be Russia's 'main enemy'. A year ago, only 28% thought so.
The "honorable" second place went to Georgia: 46% of respondents consider it unfriendly.
This is followed by Latvia with 36% (last year it held the palm), the USA (35%) and Lithuania (32%).
It is sad, but true - almost a quarter of Russians, naming hostile countries, did not fail to mention Ukraine ...
Russia's friends, in the opinion of our fellow citizens, are more permanent. Like last year, Belarus is among the leaders (38%). However, with a slight change - now she had to make room and let Kazakhstan pass ahead (39%).
And in the far abroad, Russians consider Germany (24%) and China (19%) our best friends.”
("Komsomolskaya Pravda", June 2, 2007)

That is, it turns out that the Russians, for a relatively long time, consider only Belarus, Kazakhstan and China to be friends.

And who considers Russia a true friend? And, it seems, absolutely sincerely, not using special reciprocity and not paying attention to the political situation. Honestly and for real. Just a friend because a friend. Well, you remember: “relationships that imply emotional attachment, trust” and so on.

I know such a country. By the way, today she celebrates the 15th anniversary of the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin. That's right, no more, no less. This is North Korea.

“Korea and Russia are neighboring states, and their relations are traditionally friendly relations with a long history,” writes Rodong Sinmun [North Korea’s daily newspaper, the central newspaper of the Workers’ Party of Korea]. Our people, as before, continue to in the spirit of the joint statement, will make every effort and cooperate with the Russian people to develop and strengthen the friendly relations between the two countries."
(July 19, 2015, RIA Novosti)

It's easier with enemies. Here statistics and preferences are predictable. Enemies Russians periodically change, depending on the political situation.
For example, like eight years ago. The Estonians wanted to transfer the bronze soldier to a more deserted place (not to melt, not to demolish, but to transfer) - that's it! We didn’t have time to fulfill our plans - already enemy number one! Public opinion is being prepared for the invasion of Georgia - Georgia is enemy number two! Elementarily simple.
Or now. Ukraine bleeds, but resists aggression - welcome to the top three enemies. The EU and the US stood up for Ukraine - welcome there too. And that's all - the composition of the anti-rating leaders has been formed.

Although, if you think about it, the rating of friends is formed in the same way as the anti-rating and the fact that Belarus, Kazakhstan and China have stably held out there for some time is pure coincidence and coincidence.
And only the DPRK and the Russian Federation are friends forever. And while this friendship looks one-sided, the situation is changing. Can anyone guarantee that the friendship will not grow so strong that the Koreans will not only be the best, but the only friends of the Russians? Me not.

Country and world

Father Lukashenka. Friend, foe or both?

What are the reasons for the controversial behavior of the head of Belarus - the closest ally of Russia

He can, with a threatening frown, convince that Belarus is not part of the Russian world, and ten minutes later, with tears in his eyes, confess his love for "fraternal Russia." He actually supported the return of Crimea to Russia, but he was one of the first to rush to the inauguration of Petro Poroshenko, condemned the DPR and LPR for separatism and began to actively flirt with the EU and the USA. During the December days, which were difficult for the Russian ruble, he demanded to switch to dollars in trade with Moscow, but during the critical period of spring

In 2014, he signed an agreement in Astana on the establishment of the Eurasian Union. What is the reason for his strange political throwing?

About the meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, held on Tuesday with the participation of Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, it is customary to say in official language: "The meeting was held in a warm and friendly atmosphere." Smiles, hugs, strong handshakes... Each gesture served as a visible symbol of prosperity in Russian-Belarusian relations. The final chord was the awarding of Mr. Lukashenko with the Order of Alexander Nevsky.

Without your active position on rapprochement between Belarus and Russia, there would be not only the Union State, but also our Eurasian Union, - said Vladimir Putin, presenting the award.

The question involuntarily arises: how much does this ceremonial brilliance reflect reality? After all, Alexander Lukashenko over the past year has really done a lot to ensure that part of the Russian public considers him at least a "cunning fox" and a "difficult ally."

The most serious test in the history of the Russian-Belarusian alliance was the "Ukrainian crisis," states Fyodor Lukyanov, an authoritative international political scientist. - Still, the violent overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych and Russia's retaliatory actions were a real shock for Lukashenka. Hence his numerous curtsies towards the “Maidan authorities”.

In the midst of the “Crimean Spring”, Lukashenko recognized the peninsula as Russian only because Kyiv “did not fight for it and made a lot of mistakes.” When the Russian leadership denied legitimacy to the Kyiv authorities, the father cordially received Alexander Turchinov and said a lot of warm words about the "brotherhood of the Belarusian and Ukrainian peoples." In June, Lukashenko became one of the few post-Soviet leaders who came to Kyiv for the inauguration of Petro Poroshenko and publicly supported the newly elected president in an effort to "defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine." And until September, when the first Minsk agreements were signed, the Belarusian media referred to the DPR and LPR militias as “terrorists” and “separatists”.

But, perhaps, the father's visit to Kyiv in December produced the most unpleasant effect, - Vladimir Zharikhin, director of the Institute of CIS Countries, believes. - When Lukashenka hugged Poroshenko and promised, like old man Hottabych, to fulfill any Ukrainian whim in a day, many in Russia involuntarily felt their heart skip a beat. Then even convinced "batcophiles" suspected something was wrong.

Reasons to "suspect something wrong" appeared not only in connection with Ukraine. So, at the last big press conference on January 29, Alexander Lukashenko, threateningly looking around the hall, said that if trade wars continue, Belarus could withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union. The point is this: in November, the Rosselkhoznadzor banned the supply of Belarusian meat and milk to the Russian Federation from 20 enterprises, and the Russian customs began to inspect Belarusian trucks crammed with European Union food, which, according to the official version, are intended for Kazakhstan. The reason is that after the food embargo imposed by Moscow in response to EU sanctions, Minsk decided to sell European goods on Russian markets, gluing Belarusian labels to them or not delivering Western “sevruzhina with horseradish” to Kazakh brothers who were hungry for overseas delicacies. Of course, the old man did not remain in debt and also ordered the customs control points to be returned to the border with the Russian Federation, and at the end of December he ordered to switch to dollars and euros in mutual trade.

Of course, Minsk can be understood in this situation, - the well-known Russian economist Valentin Katasonov reflects. - Our country accounts for almost half of Belarusian trade, so the collapse of the Russian ruble could not but have a negative impact on Belarus, which is already struggling to make ends meet. How can there not be a desire to correct the situation with the help of various leftist incomes and move on to trading in hard currency? But his steps completely contradict the idea of ​​the Eurasian Union.

Perhaps the ambiguous position of the father on Ukraine, coupled with traditional trade disputes, would not look so suspicious if it were not for the increased contacts between Alexander Lukashenko and representatives of the West. The rejection of unconditional support for Russia in the “Ukrainian issue” and an active role in organizing the Minsk meetings allowed him to slightly wash his image of the “last dictator of Europe” and appear before the Western public almost as a peacemaker. As a result, there seems to be no end to tempting offers.

So, on December 17 last year, US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, who stirred up the Kiev Maidan with her "cookies", noted the rapprochement of a number of positions with Minsk. And recently, Western politicians flocked to the Belarusian capital - Deputy Secretary General of the European External Action Service Helga Schmid, head of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Suma Chakrabati, Latvian Foreign Minister Edgar Rinkevich and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Eric Rubin.

Regarding the status of these visitors, you can joke as much as you like that Lukashenka met with senior assistants to junior janitors, political scientist Boris Mezhuev ironically. - However, the very fact of these contacts suggests that Belarus and the West are playing some kind of complicated game with respect to each other. It is significant that Lukashenka is asking the Latvian Foreign Minister to help normalize his dialogue with the EU. At the same time, the guest from Latvia, in turn, hinted that he might invite the father to the Eastern Partnership summit in Riga. And is it worth reminding that it was with such invitations that the infamous history of the “European association” of Ukraine began?..

However, the majority of experts interviewed by NV are inclined to think that, despite the dizzying political somersaults and sometimes outrageous rhetoric, Alexander Lukashenko is still one of the closest Russian allies.

Just do not confuse PR with reality! - calls, assessing the course of the Belarusian leader, an expert on the CIS Igor Shishkin. - Sometimes I get the feeling that the media deliberately take out of context various scandalous and controversial episodes in order to pit Minsk and Moscow against each other. In reality, the union of Russia and Belarus successfully passes through all the tests. A vivid example of this is the Eurasian integration. Lukashenka's position ensured the success of the May 31, 2014 summit in Astana, at which the agreement on the creation of the Eurasian Union was signed. But Belarus and Kazakhstan could well put on the brakes - after all, last spring was the peak of Western pressure on Russia, when its international isolation seemed to many a fait accompli.

But maybe the disagreements over Ukraine should be considered a sign of the mutual estrangement of Minsk and Moscow? There is a different point of view on this matter, according to which the activity of the father on the “Ukrainian front” is in fact agreed with Moscow.

Lukashenka's words should not be taken at face value, - Mikhail Pogrebinsky, an authoritative Kiev political scientist, believes. - The balanced position of the Belarusian president allowed Russia to get the much-needed room for maneuver. Would the Kyiv authorities have agreed to negotiations in Minsk if Lukashenka had taken an openly pro-Russian position? In my opinion, it was the neutrality of Belarus that allowed Russia to achieve diplomatic success - to persuade Poroshenko to a peaceful settlement and insist on holding the Normandy summit in fact on its own, and not on Western territory.

But what about Lukashenka's numerous contacts with Euro-Atlantic emissaries? Do they not confirm the quarrel in the noble Russian-Belarusian family?

It seems to me that we are witnessing a cunning diplomatic game planned in Moscow and Minsk, political scientist Igor Shishkin believes. - Pay attention: on all fundamental issues related to the new Cold War, the Belarusian leader supports Vladimir Putin. Otherwise, he would not have allowed additional Russian aircraft and S-300 systems to be deployed on his territory in response to NATO activity in the Baltics. Then what is the point of Belarusian flirting with the West? It is no secret that the next presidential election will be held in Belarus this November, which means that the United States and its allies will try to arrange a semblance of the Kyiv Maidan in the Belarusian capital. In order to frustrate Western plans, the old man is trying to create in the West the illusion that he is his own, that he wants to get rid of Moscow's guardianship. At the decisive moment, as it already happened in 2010, Lukashenka will finally and irrevocably go over to the “Russian camp”. As a pragmatist, he is well aware that only an alliance with Russia can guarantee economic and political prosperity for Belarus, while the United States tends to overthrow even the most loyal regimes.

Well, time will tell what was the main reason for Alexander Lukashenko's throwing - the desire to receive maximum dividends from Russia with the help of "multi-vector" or a combination agreed with Moscow. But judging by real cases, for now it can be stated that in difficult times for Russia, Belarus nevertheless made a pro-Russian choice. Perhaps it was for this choice that Vladimir Putin decided to thank the Belarusian leader by presenting him with the Order of Alexander Nevsky, who, finding himself in a similar political situation, staked on the East, and not on the West. But what about petty Belarusian "pranks"? It's OK! Unlike the United States, Russia gives its allies maximum freedom and is not inclined to punish them for the slightest deviation from the “party line”.

chronicle of relations between Russia and Belarus

In favor of Russia

January 2000 - the Treaty on the Creation of the Union State of Russia and Belarus came into force, which implies the development of political, economic, military, cultural cooperation between our countries.

October 2003 - Russian military bases (radar station "Volga" for warning of a missile attack and the 43rd communication center of the Navy for connection with submarines) were located on the territory of Belarus.

July 2010 - Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia created the Customs Union, in January 2012 - the Common Economic Space.

March 2014 - Lukashenka recognized the annexation of Crimea to Russia. In a vote in the UN General Assembly, Belarus opposed a resolution declaring the referendum in Crimea illegal.

May 2014 - the signing in Astana of an agreement on the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) on the basis of the Customs Union, designed to become an analogue of the EU in the post-Soviet space.

Since September 2014, meetings of the contact group on Ukraine have been held in Minsk. Lukashenka is trying to reconcile the parties to the conflict.

Since January 2015, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) began to operate, it included Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia (Belarus approved the accession of Armenia and Kyrgyzstan to the union).

Against Russia

August 2008 - Belarus did not recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

October 2009 - Lukashenko accused Vladimir Putin (former prime minister) of "conspiracy against Belarus" after Russia cut off gas supplies during the 2007 gas conflict. Lukashenko said that Putin "puts pressure on Minsk and disrupts cooperation in the Union State."

June 2014 - Lukashenka attended the inauguration of Petro Poroshenko.

Autumn 2014 - the trade war between Belarus and Russia began. In November, the Rosselkhoznadzor, which suspected Minsk of re-exporting European products to Russia, banned the import of Belarusian meat into the country. Lukashenka in response threatens to withdraw from the EAEU.

November 2014 - Lukashenka categorically refused to recognize the elections in the DNR and LNR.

December 2014 - Lukashenka demanded that trade with Russia be converted into dollars. At a meeting with Poroshenko, he promised "to fulfill everything that Ukraine asks for in a day."

January 2015 - Lukashenka declared that "Belarus is not part of the Russian world."



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